USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 20, 2024, 03:48:38 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: USC/Dornsife tracking poll megathread  (Read 26758 times)
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,284
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« on: August 19, 2020, 03:12:37 PM »

Trump's approval has undoubtedly gone up over the past few days but horserace numbers appear steady. Good poll for Biden here.

No, it’s pretty doubtable. His average approval rating remains within its typical range. No reason to believe any movement isn’t just noise at this point.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,284
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2020, 06:04:50 PM »

Even though this poll was off by ~5 points in 2016, it showed the movement towards Trump in the week or so before the election a lot more clearly and distinctly than most polling aggregates did, and also showed that it continued to build basically until Election Day.  I think its worth at least keeping an eye on, just add a handicap of however many points if you think its too friendly to Biden.  And its' too soon to say its not showing any RNC bounce IMO. 5/7 of the current sample is still before the final night of the convention, although at this point it doesn't seem likely that it will show a big one.

But last time it was too friendly to TRUMP. Why should I assume it’s too friendly for Biden now? If anything, if we assume consistency from 2016, I should expect it to be too friendly to Trump again. Meaning that Biden should actually be up by like 17 or so by this logic.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.017 seconds with 11 queries.