2023 UK Local Elections

[YL]

V confused why I woke up to coverage suggesting Labour isn’t doing this well….

I guess cause they are emphasizing council topline changes? Labour are winning the overall vote and making big gains in all the places they need to, but in many of these thirds councils like Dudley and Harlow Labour hit ceilings. Especially in Thurrock and Tamworth. Its no suprise the big toplines so far have every seat up: Stoke-on-Trent, Bolton, Medway, Hertsmere, also now Windsor.Tories are also losing ~1/3 of the seats that have declared, which if it holds means the 1K losses expectation setting number might come to pass, if you care about that.

On that point, North Lincolnshire. I warned the urban-rural polarization put a ceiling on Labour here, and it played out as expected. Labour are winning the Sculthorpe wards by more than enough to win the GE constituency, but the council has much more territory.

I think Dudley is genuinely a bit disappointing, though I don't pretend to understand that place.

[icc]

Can someone please explain why the Green Party has surged in East Herfordshire?

The greens have been playing a v long game in these sorts of areas- they’re a natural protest vote and they can oppose various developments/changes with the ‘protect the hedges’ which is a very potent and powerful line in English politics- you run someone well know locally who is nice and friendly and you spend your time talking about the church hall and the ghastly new development rather than the issues you see ultra online Green activists talk about.


there are lots of people in these areas who would recoil at voting Labour but would happily vote Green- the crude stereotype is people who shop at Waitrose, who watch countryfile and are very concerned about the local river being polluted.

I don’t know East Hertfordshire but as I said a few pages back the greens will imv win their next parliamentary seat in one of these areas.

Yep - the Green ‘brand’ (especially locally) in these rural areas bears very little resemblance to what the party actually stands for.

[JimJamUK]

I think Dudley is genuinely a bit disappointing, though I don't pretend to understand that place.

I think 2022 may have been an unusually good result for Labour in Dudley, yesterdays result is still perfectly decent imv.

[Torrain]

Dread it, run from it, gimmicky prop-based Lib Dem photoshoots arrive all the same:
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1654416223117910017

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1654430205958553609

Now is the winter of Tory discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Davey

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think Dudley is genuinely a bit disappointing, though I don't pretend to understand that place.

I think 2022 may have been an unusually good result for Labour in Dudley, yesterdays result is still perfectly decent imv.

The Dudley results are fine, apart from one ward which was randomly lost against the general swing because the incumbent councillor is personally unpopular.

[JimJamUK]

York, which has a Lib Dem-Green coalition, is producing some very vicious swings against the governing parties.

[Torrain]

Heavy swings against the Tories in East Hertfordshire. They’ve lost 25 of their 46 seats so far (some still to count…). Greens have emerged as the largest party, and made 15 gains so far.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is there a general profile on the main differences between Labour,Tory and Lib Dem local goverments in terms of policy and governance ?

[Mike88]

I guess the assumption, as of now, is that the results are much more a Tory defeat than an actual Labour victory, right? Labour isn't gaining that much, despite the Tories big fall.

[JimJamUK]

I guess the assumption, as of now, is that the results are much more a Tory defeat than an actual Labour victory, right? Labour isn't gaining that much, despite the Tories big fall.

That’s a fair summary. My caveat is that Labour should do well out of squeezing the smaller party vote (obviously varies place to place, but in Labour target seats it looks distinctly like a non-Tory vote that would otherwise have largely went to Labour).

[Oryxslayer]

York, which has a Lib Dem-Green coalition, is producing some very vicious swings against the governing parties.

That's a pleasant surprise, York was expected to be the last council of the night.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1654430205958553609

Now is the winter of Tory discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Davey

I spotted hints of this, and after Tamworth, I think we should be talking about how much is left after the backlash, not if they hold on.

Is there a general profile on the main differences between Labour,Tory and Lib Dem local goverments in terms of policy and governance ?

These days the Lib-Dems and Greens get double their vote locally when compared to General Elections. Part of this is because both parties are sneaking into the classic role of "opposition in safe councils," something I wish we had here in the US. A party whose whole pitch changes based on geography, and serves to be there to kick the bums out when they mess up. But another part is that the Lib-Dem appeal is often much better for the voters in  southern rural shires and suburban councils when compared to Labour who are mostly a commuter-town party in that region.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1654445179917545473
For God's sake, let us sit upon the ground
And tell sad stories of the death of kings;

[JimJamUK]

York is going to be a Labour majority. Some frankly ridiculous gains off the Lib Dems and Greens. For background, the council attracted very negative attention and activism over the banning of disability parking in parts of the city centre (because counter-terrorism??). On that basis (and I’m sure there were other issues), it’s my non-partisan nomination for best result of the night.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour are doing well in the sort of areas (and so presumably with the sort of voters) they want to, so will be very happy.* What you aren't seeing is them sweeping all before them in places you would never expect in the way that happened in the 1995 locals for instance, but I'm dubious as to how much that actually means or if it's even possible given how local politics and local political organizations are these days. In a lot of the districts where that happened back then Labour just don't have a local organization to speak of now, whereas back then the still relatively recent legacy of the pre-1974 local government system meant that there were traces of organization all over the place.

As an aside, the fact that the Tories are losing a lot of ground to the LibDems in some areas compared to 2019 is impressively dreadful.

_{*There are random disappointments here and there, but there always are; much as there are always random rays of light in otherwise grim nights.}

[Torrain]

Labour calling East Staffordshire as a gain. Currently 25 Con, Lab 10.

[JimJamUK]

Solihull has been disappointing for the Greens. They’ve fallen apart a bit over the last few years and are now at the point of losing seats, holding more narrowly, and not challenging anywhere new.

[JimJamUK]

As an aside, the fact that the Tories are losing a lot of ground to the LibDems in some areas compared to 2019 is impressively dreadful.

It’s not even just “some” areas, it’s basically everywhere they are relevant and don’t have a significant reason not to (i.e. an unpopular Lib Dem administration or previously unpopular Tory one).

[Logical]

So what's the Tory spin now? We've made gains in..... (checks notes) Harlow?

[TheTide]

So what's the Tory spin now? We've made gains in..... (checks notes) Harlow?

Greg Hands is going on about how there supposedly was an independent prediction of 1,000 Tory losses.

[oldtimer]

Isn't it almost certain that the Tories will lose 1000 seats, perhaps even 1500?

The possible range right now looks like 800-1150.

[JimJamUK]

So what's the Tory spin now? We've made gains in..... (checks notes) Harlow?

Slough looks to be a bright spot for them. They may yet gain control in a usually very safe Labour area. Slough council is one of the councils that had the auditors sent in due to bankruptcy issues.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

back then the still relatively recent legacy of the pre-1974 local government system meant that there were traces of organization all over the place.

What changed to cause parties to athrophy in these areas ?

[oldtimer]

I guess the assumption, as of now, is that the results are much more a Tory defeat than an actual Labour victory, right? Labour isn't gaining that much, despite the Tories big fall.

It looks like Labour are winning the ex-UKIP vote that has been the swing vote for 10 years now, while the LD are gaining mostly upscale Conservatives.

[JimJamUK]

back then the still relatively recent legacy of the pre-1974 local government system meant that there were traces of organization all over the place.

What changed to cause parties to athrophy in these areas ?

OP will have a fuller answer, but basically wards and councils got much bigger and therefore local government became more distant and parties needed to put up many fewer candidates. Over time that can hurt voter interest, party organisation and genuine local engagement in the democratic process.