Which race from nowhere will be competitive come nov 7th.

[Alcon]

First of all, I have to clear up a misconception, Adlai.  The Democrat-controlled legislature is not unpopular.  In fact, they had an amazingly productive session.  As with every state, few people pay attention to the legislature and approval is generally low no matter what.  There was some bad news regarding the deficit, but the Democrats will be able to run on their productive session.  Once they start advertising, they will start running ahead, especially in the remaining Seattle suburbs where Republicans control seats in Democratic districts.  Gregoire is not popular, but I would not call her ragingly unpopular either.

Washington polls evenly.  Always.  That is because the Democrats are strongly Democratic and the Republicans are usually strongly Republican.  The range at which Washington will vote ranges from about 65% Democratic (a popular incumbent in a minor state office versus a Republican who was unendorsed by his own party) to 55% Republican (a popular incumbent Republican versus a nobody).

Just look at 2004 polling - it was extremely even.  Given the option between two sane candidates, Washington will generally vote for the Democrat (especially if an incumbent) by a margin similar to their approval rating.

Just thought I'd explain it.

[Alcon]

The range at which Washington will vote ranges from about 65% Democratic (a popular incumbent in a minor state office versus a Republican who was unendorsed by his own party) to 55% Republican (a popular incumbent Republican versus a nobody).

Unless the Democrat's name is Henry Jackson, in which case it looks like this:

Yes, although he does suffer from being a tad dead.

[Alcon]

Yes, although he does suffer from being a tad dead.

HE WILL RISE AGAIN

Hey, anyone who can nearly break 90 percent in Benton County as a Democrat can probably rise from the dead.

[Alcon]

OK well thanks for the analysis.  What do you predict Cantwell will win by then?

Eh, I'd wait until summer to make a prediction.  Early Washington polls tend to average out to the same things but jump around a bit.  That is, the average will be what the final margin is, but the polls themselves will vary.  Considering that we have one or two reliable companies polling right now, it's hard to tell what that average is.

I'd guess the margin to be similar to Kerry's.  There is a possibility the GOP can win, but only if McGavick turns out to be a really interesting guy.  It also depends on how many Democrats don't show up or vote for the Green, but in reality the heart and soul of the Washington Democratic Party is suburban votes - and it's unlikely that they will be upset at Cantwell for beign "too conservative."