USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[lfromnj]

Raimondo rigged it for RI

[lfromnj]

Can anyone quickly summarize the changes to me

TX+2,FL+1,NC+1,OR+1,MT +1
CA-1,OH-1,IL-1,MI-1,NY-1,PA-1,WV-1

[lfromnj]

The seat not lost in RI was definitely D. The seat not lost in MN was probably R? The seat not lost in AL would have been D if Republicans could get away with it.

The seats not gained in TX, FL, and AZ all definitely R.

AZ is a commision and idk the lean.

[lfromnj]

These patterns seem extremely suggestive of large Latino under-counts, likely down to the Trump admin's relentless politicizing and citizenship question.

Yes, but if so, not in NY or NJ...

Presumably Puerto Ricans found the citizenship question less threatening for obvious reasons.

Will have to see for Osceola county.

[lfromnj]

Of the relative surprise seats here is my opinion of the results

FL/TX Gaining only 3 instead of 5. Good for D's in EC. Probably good news for D's in the house. albiet with the Caveat is that if there was a minority undercount here it would expand any packed seats. This could hurt Fletcher as the 3 Houston packs, can expand a bit more if my assumption is true. Easier to gerrymander her out in this scenario. In FL I am not sure. Assuming Crist Murphy and Lawson are still drawn out. This hurts Murphy as 2 packs expand a bit. For Lawson its a slight positive actually due to the way the rurals are East of Tallahassee.  For Crist it depends on what the FL GOP does.
 

AZ-not gaining, not sure. This does mean Dems now have the excuse of using least change to protect the gerrymander in outstate. The Gerrymander in Maricopa is actually a slight dummymander by now by overpacking AZ09. AZ does have a Latino population but whites are relatively liberal here so the main group is whites.
MT+1- not a surprise but wasn't a certainty. Good for Rs in the EC but the Montana supreme court rigged the commission pretty hard so good for D's in the house.

MN keeps- not super surprising. Good for D's in the EC. IMO neutral overall for the house delegation.

RI-Keeping, definitely good for D's in the EC and 98% good for D's in the house map. They might want to consider shoring up the outer seat a touch.

AL-Keeping, good for R's in the EC. Probably good for Rs in house too as I didn't expect them to try to chop the black seat

NY-1. Surprised it was that close to 27 . Not surprised by 26 exactly though. However its mostly good for D's although 26 seats is a bit awkward compared to 25 where 1 NYC/1 Upstate would be cut. With 26 seats the mean of population loss is somewhere in Delgado's/SPM's seat and the Hudson River Valley is relatively bottlenecked.

[lfromnj]

Wait a damn minute, South Carolina could have lost a seat? All the time people in the state brag about having some of the fastest growing areas (Horry, Charleston, Greenville) and we could’ve lost one?

Well, your state is extremely rural. Honestly, I think this could be a factor that works against SC/GA/NC/TN going forward. Even if the cities keep booming, I'd be completely unsurprised to see rural populations converge towards 10-15%. That's equivalent to ~10% of SC's population disappearing--which would require a whole lot of growth in the cities to make up.

This might also explain the flatlining in VA. VA-09 and VA-04 are hemorrhaging people, as is the southern half of VA-05. 

Also Fairfax county growth has really slowed down. The Inner ring"urban" area of Alexandria and Arlington are now growing fast and Loudon/PWC are booming though.

[lfromnj]

What city had the longest streak of declining population only to increase the previous decade? I see Scranton and Wilkes Barres were declining for 80 years but then increased by 2020.