Competitive House Race Predictions - New Jersey and New Mexico
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  Competitive House Race Predictions - New Jersey and New Mexico		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Predict Who Will Win in Each House Race
#1
NJ-02: Seth Grossman (R)		  
#2
NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew (D)		  
#3
NJ-03: Tom MacArthur (R)*		  
#4
NJ-03: Andy Kim (D)		  
#5
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer (D)*		  
#6
NJ-05: John McCann (R)		  
#7
NJ-07: Leonard Lance (R)*		  
#8
NJ-07: Tom Malinowski (D)		  
#9
NJ-11: Jay Webber (R)		  
#10
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (D)		  
#11
NM-02: Yvette Herrell (R)		  
#12
NM-02: Xochitl Torres-Small (D)		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 54

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Author Topic: Competitive House Race Predictions - New Jersey and New Mexico  (Read 575 times)
ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« on: October 25, 2018, 09:08:25 AM »
Previous threads you can still vote in and affect the overall result:

AL to AR CA CO and FL GA and IL IN and IA KS to ME MI MN MO to NH

NJ-02: Drew (D+1)
NJ-03: MacArthur (R)
NJ-05: Gottheimer (D)
NJ-07: Malinowski (D+1)
NJ-11: Sherrill (D+1)
NM-02: Herrell (R)

I'm most doubtful about Lance losing, but I think New Jersey is definitely a place where the GCB advantage is going to be prominent.

Predictions Showing Competitive Races



Predictions Showing Pickups



Safe D: 182
Safe R: 138

Competitive D: 30
Competitive R: 28

Democrats: 212
Republicans: 166

Pickups

AZ-02 CA-10 CA-25 CA-39 CA-45 CA-48 CA-49 CO-06 FL-26 FL-27 IL-06 IL-12 IA-01 IA-03 KS-02 KS-03 KY-06 ME-02 MI-08 MI-11 MN-02 MN-03 MN-08

Net: D+21
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2018, 09:29:01 AM »
NJ-02: Likely D (FLIP)
NJ-03: Lean D (FLIP)
NJ-05: Likely D
NJ-07: Lean D (FLIP)
NJ-11: Lean D (FLIP)
NM-02: Toss-up/Tilt R
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andjey
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2018, 09:34:17 AM »
NJ-02: Likely D (FLIP)
NJ-03: Lean D (FLIP)
NJ-05: Likely D
NJ-07: Tossup/Tilt R
NJ-11: Lean D (FLIP)
NM-02: Tossup/Tilt D (FLIP)
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Xing
xingkerui
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E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2018, 09:38:52 AM »
NJ-02: Safe D (D+21)
NJ-03: Toss-Up/Tilt D (D+22)
NJ-05: Safe D
NJ-07: Toss-Up/Tilt R
NJ-11: Likely D (D+23)
NM-02: Toss-Up/Tilt D (D+24)
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2018, 09:40:21 AM »
D+4.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2018, 12:45:46 PM »
Gottheimer and Van Drew are Safe. The only other that I feel comfortable predicting is Sherrill (sadly for me).
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2018, 01:23:44 PM »
Quote from: Xing on October 25, 2018, 09:38:52 AM
NJ-02: Safe D (D+21)
NJ-03: Toss-Up/Tilt D (D+22)
NJ-05: Safe D
NJ-07: Toss-Up/Tilt R
NJ-11: Likely D (D+23)
NM-02: Toss-Up/Tilt D (D+24)

Basically this.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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E: -0.13, S: -0.87

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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2018, 02:04:42 PM »
NJ-02: Van Drew +16 (not a competitive race)
NJ-03: Kim +5
NJ-05: Gottheimer +12
NJ-07: Malinowski +4
NJ-11: Sherrill +8
NM-02: Torres Small +2
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2018, 04:25:02 PM »
Quote from: Politician on October 25, 2018, 02:04:42 PM
NJ-02: Van Drew +16 (not a competitive race)
NJ-03: Kim +5
NJ-05: Gottheimer +12
NJ-07: Malinowski +4
NJ-11: Sherrill +8
NM-02: Torres Small +2

I pretty much agree with this. I think MacArthur will lose by a greater margin than Lance--his work on the Obamacare repeal and the tax bill vote are killing him
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2018, 05:29:54 PM »
After these predictions enter into the total, we'll have officially predicted the House to flip.
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