2016: Ron Paul vs Sam Webb vs Hilary Clinton vs Mitt Romney

[Joetheiceman]

This is hypothetical and just generally awful so stick with me here, it's a bit weird.

Before the 2012 elections, the dollar collapses, sending the US into a severe economic depression. As a result, Obama loses to Ron Paul due to a surge in Tea Party support. However, the Tea Partiers just end up messing things up more and sending the US into an even worse depression. For some strange reason, this causes a gigantic amount of grassroots support (Assumingly mostly in the former Democratic Party states) for CPUSA, hence Sam Webb is there. Due to a split between usual Republicans and farther right ones, the Tea Party has split off and become a seperate Party itself.

So, that was a bit weird, so go.

[tmthforu94]

Just to clear things up - Ron Paul was elected as a Republican, but is running for reelection as a under the Tea Party...Party?

[Joetheiceman]

Just to clear things up - Ron Paul was elected as a Republican, but is running for reelection as a under the Tea Party...Party?

Basically something along the lines of an equal split in the Republican Party in which about half would be going Tea Party.

[tmthforu94]

Just to clear things up - Ron Paul was elected as a Republican, but is running for reelection as a under the Tea Party...Party?

Basically something along the lines of an equal split in the Republican Party in which about half would be going Tea Party.

Sorry, but this didn't really answer my question.

Just to clear things up - Ron Paul was elected as a Republican, but is running for reelection as a under the Tea Party...Party?

[Joetheiceman]

Just to clear things up - Ron Paul was elected as a Republican, but is running for reelection as a under the Tea Party...Party?

Basically something along the lines of an equal split in the Republican Party in which about half would be going Tea Party.

Sorry, but this didn't really answer my question.

Just to clear things up - Ron Paul was elected as a Republican, but is running for reelection as a under the Tea Party...Party?

Oh, yes.

[tmthforu94]

Okay...

I would vote for Romney. Clinton would easily win, considering the right would be much more severely split than the left. Probably around 450 EV's. Romney would probably barely edge Paul for 2nd place.

[Niemeyerite]

something like this, being fair with Sam Webb:

Hillary Clinton 294 EVs
Ron Paul 97 EVs
Sam Webb 95 EVs
Mitt Romney 62 EVs

Hillary carries the strong Dem. states, by a thin margin. she also picks the dixie vote in the south, while romney and paul split the conservative vote there. Romney carries GA because Webb hurts Hillary in Atlanta, and romney beats paul with the suburban vote.

Paul carries the libertaran-leaning states, some states in the south and states with a strong tea party movement, such as Indiana.

romney carries the moderate republican vote and the mormon vote, winning ID, UT, NV and WY. SD and ND are not that affected by the crisis, and with hillary and webb splitting the liberal vote there, romney wins those states easily. WI goes for him in an upset, with Webb and Hillary splitting the liberal vote, and with paul in a distant 4th. NH is his home state by 2020.

Webb performs better in the states with high unemployement rates (states in the rust belt), in VT and DC, which are really liberal, and in CO and NM, winning the Hispanic vote. Oregon is a 4-way toss-up and Webb upsets everybody there.