2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

lfromnj what do you think will happen

[lfromnj]

Yeah Democrats should just give up on a Florida 5th based in Leon. DOA at SCOTUS. I think the recent SCOTUS decision at WI could put some fear in GOP legislators if DeSantis threatens to go nuclear(sue over legislative districts as well)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah Democrats should just give up on a Florida 5th based in Leon. DOA at SCOTUS. I think the recent SCOTUS decision at WI could put some fear in GOP legislators if DeSantis threatens to go nuclear(sue over legislative districts as well)

How about no

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah Democrats should just give up on a Florida 5th based in Leon. DOA at SCOTUS. I think the recent SCOTUS decision at WI could put some fear in GOP legislators if DeSantis threatens to go nuclear(sue over legislative districts as well)

How about no

The only way to get a Leon County Democratic seat is to either connect it with parts of Jacksonville (not likely now that it's possible to draw a strong D seat entirely within Duval County) or connect it to Gainesville which would be nice but isn't happening except under a hypothetical D trifecta. What do you propose the Democrats do here?

[lfromnj]

Yeah Democrats should just give up on a Florida 5th based in Leon. DOA at SCOTUS. I think the recent SCOTUS decision at WI could put some fear in GOP legislators if DeSantis threatens to go nuclear(sue over legislative districts as well)

How about no

Are you referring to the latter part? The FL legislative GOP would be dumb if they actually were worried. Their final map should be fine at SCOTUS but FL 5th stretching from Tallahassee to Jacksonville is probably dead and Democrats should accept that if it goes to court.

[BoiseBoy]

Florida court asks parties to suggest potential "special masters" to create a map if necessary.

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1507086792410947592

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1508811194538336256

Technically nothing is that suspicious of it taking this long, many bills are still being sent. they use it for press conferences.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1508811194538336256

Technically nothing is that suspicious of it taking this long, many bills are still being sent. they use it for press conferences.

And DeSantis just announced the inevitable veto.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1508832112702636032

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1508836386698366985

I still don't see West Duval or West Orange seats being struck down. Leg districts are different.

Special Session After Easter.

[UncleSam]

Can Dems override the veto? Seems like that might be the smart play here, unless they think they can get better maps?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1508838087354368010

I was told by MCI maps he was appealing to a voter base of 500 people.

Sounds like no veto override session either.

[Torie]

I don't agree that the black CD that takes in Black Tallahassee and Jacksonville violates the VRA, and don't believe that what SCOTUS did in Alabama and Wisconsin is at all apposite.  A Duval only black performing CD is also legal. And it is also true that no black performing CD at all in north Florida is also legal. It is not possible to draw a majority voting age population black CD, and even if it were, I strongly doubt a CD taking in the black areas of Tallahassee and Jacksonville is compact under Gingles, although the Alabama case will tell us more about that. Everything is legal, at least under the VRA.

The misunderstanding the VRA from so many quarters, whether for show or for real, continues at gala force speed from all parts of the compass.

[lfromnj]

I don't agree that the black CD that takes in Black Tallahassee and Jacksonville violates the VRA, and don't believe that what SCOTUS did in Alabama and Wisconsin is at all apposite. The misunderstanding the VRA from so many quarters, whether for show or for real, continues at gala force speed from all parts of the compass.

You misunderstand Torie, DeSantis is not suing under the VRA but rather the equal protection clause. This merely continues conservative judicial philosophy from Miller V Johnson.  I still highly doubt  a map that is wholly contained within Duval would get struck down but the current FL 5th is at very high risk under a lawsuit. The FL Legislature likely did have lawyers who checked DeSantis's claim and that is why they reduced FL 5th to solely Duval as it is the safest option from a position of trying to avoid a lawsuit.

IMO DeSantis is bluffing about a West Duval seat specifically but his original claims very were much not a bluff.

[Torie]

I don't agree that the black CD that takes in Black Tallahassee and Jacksonville violates the VRA, and don't believe that what SCOTUS did in Alabama and Wisconsin is at all apposite. The misunderstanding the VRA from so many quarters, whether for show or for real, continues at gala force speed from all parts of the compass.

You misunderstand Torie, DeSantis is not suing under the VRA but rather the equal protection clause. This merely continues conservative judicial philosophy from Miller V Johnson.  I still highly doubt  a map that is wholly contained within Duval would get struck down but the current FL 5th is at very high risk under a lawsuit. The FL Legislature likely did have lawyers who checked DeSantis's claim and that is why they reduced FL 5th to solely Duval as it is the safest option from a position of trying to avoid a lawsuit.

IMO DeSantis is bluffing about a West Duval seat specifically but his original claims very were much not a bluff.

What are the black voting age populations of the two maps? I don't see a violation there either really, which I will explain if you are interested, but first I want to see the percentages. If the black percentage of the two cities CD is clearly "excessive," then yes, there could be a violation because the CD "unnecessarily" took in black Tallahassee Dems while rejecting white ones, in an erose manner. But first you need to show an excess that is clearly more than is needed to be a safe black performing CD. And you need to show as well that a Duval only CD is clearly black performing.

Why is DeSantis rejecting the two step "solution?"

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why won't dems override

[lfromnj]

Why won't dems override

They might be willing to, I heard some D's say they would be willing to override but it sounds like R leadership doesn't want to anger DeSantis over this. On the other hand if D's aren't willing to its because they are on the train of protecting Al Lawson or they believe they can get FL 7th back to the original set up.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1508838087354368010

I was told by MCI maps he was appealing to a voter base of 500 people.

Sounds like no veto override session either.

“Upheld by the courts” sounds like a direct jab at DeSantis’s shenanigans in north Florida

[lfromnj]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/politics/desantis-vetoes-florida-congressional-map/index.html

Rodrigues, who was previously dismissive of DeSantis' position, now says it warrants consideration. He also said recent US Supreme Court rulings regarding redistricting plans passed in other states may also play a factor. Still, he didn't know how the state House and Senate would bridge the gap between their approved map and the one DeSantis wants. Already, they had made significant concessions to DeSantis, passing a map that shifts District 5 east to create a new Black access district around Jacksonville.
"The governor has a legitimate point," Rodrigues said. "Let's see if there's a way the map can be drawn to address it."

[Torie]

None of the clowns have a legitimate point. I guess De Santis wants to create a swing district in Duval, and that is what all this sound and fury is about, and in the meantime he is a font of legal disinformation in my opinion. Maybe he went to the Putin school of prevarication.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/politics/desantis-vetoes-florida-congressional-map/index.html

Rodrigues, who was previously dismissive of DeSantis' position, now says it warrants consideration. He also said recent US Supreme Court rulings regarding redistricting plans passed in other states may also play a factor. Still, he didn't know how the state House and Senate would bridge the gap between their approved map and the one DeSantis wants. Already, they had made significant concessions to DeSantis, passing a map that shifts District 5 east to create a new Black access district around Jacksonville.
"The governor has a legitimate point," Rodrigues said. "Let's see if there's a way the map can be drawn to address it."

Why not just use the House's compromise Orlando, use a Tampa config similar to the current one (i.e. 1 swing in Pinellas and 1 safish CD in Hilsboro and no other winnable D seats.), and a swingy Duval seat that still keeps the black community whole? That's probably the furthest you could stretch things before the risk of being overturned by the court skyrockets.

[lfromnj]

https://jaxtrib.org/2022/03/29/desantis-vetoes-florida-congressional-redistricting-maps/

House Democrats have been opposed to every map proposal. They even expressed opposition to a Senate-approved plan that received bipartisan accolades and would’ve seen 15 out of 28 districts won by Hillary Clinton, 14 won by Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson and 12 won by Joe Biden.

Wat.

Florida Democrats pull a Fl Democrat.

https://mobile.twitter.com/apantazi/status/1509172613641293832

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://jaxtrib.org/2022/03/29/desantis-vetoes-florida-congressional-redistricting-maps/

House Democrats have been opposed to every map proposal. They even expressed opposition to a Senate-approved plan that received bipartisan accolades and would’ve seen 15 out of 28 districts won by Hillary Clinton, 14 won by Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson and 12 won by Joe Biden.

Wat.

Florida Democrats pull a Fl Democrat.

https://mobile.twitter.com/apantazi/status/1509172613641293832

Primary all of them!

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1511769937194491919

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1511769937194491919

Republican judge is a partisan hacktivist masquerading as a judge.  In other news, water is still wet.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1511849791977889793?cxt=HHwWgoC5yYXYlfspAAA...

County boards claim they need a map pretty soon.