Trump '19 v. Dubya '03: who is/was in better shape for re-election?

[McGarnagle]

I can't believe anybody is answering Trump.

At this point in '03 Bush had very high approvals. They only started a downturn over the summer of '03 with the Iraq War insurgency and increasing U.S. deaths. Eventually it was close in the polls (many showed him losing to Kerry by 1-2 points) but he pulled through, to my chagrin and the chagrin of millions of others. Despite the Iraq War going south, keep in mind this was still within just a couple years after 9/11 and that strongly favored the incumbent's chances.

Trump hasn't had an approval rating above water since his first week in office. He's consistently polled behind even the weaker Democratic candidates, by a larger margin than just one to two points. He's done everything he can to alienate voters who did not vote for him in 2016. His chances for re-election are considerably slimmer than Bush's were.