VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I might end up looking like a fool tonight, but my final prediction is:

Northam 51.2%
Gillespie 45.5%

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Dear God, this thread has really gone down the tubes. almost everyone here is either trolling or acting like a schizophrenic nutcase, overreacting to every minute detail as if it signals pure DOOM for one candidate or the other.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Fairfax County turnout surging as the clouds lift.

It appears turnout in NOVA is pretty high, but we really can't draw any conclusions from that because we don't know how well Northam is doing in Northern Virginia until we start getting actual votes. Maybe Gillespie will over-perform Trump bigly, or maybe Northam will do as well as Clinton did or even slightly better... we just don't know yet.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Gillespie will not do as bad with upper income educated repubs as trump did

and Norham won't do as bad with WWC as Hillary lol

I'm really curious about how Northam does in Dickinson County, actually, since it was a traditional Democratic stronghold and it's been getting deeper and deeper red every election.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Fairfax county's turnout is looking very promising fro Northam.

Possibly, but I'd be surprised if Gillespie does as poorly there as Trump did.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Who do you think feels more confident tonight? Northam or Gillespie?

If I was Northam, I'd be fairly confident right now. but that might change before the night's over.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Have heard surprisingly little about SWVA county #'s.

I'd imagine things aren't looking too good down there for Gillespie.

I hate to make this kind of comment because a lot of people just make this kind of thing up for the lulz, but I have a friend who lives in Dickinson County and he says his neighbors aren't that enthused for Gillespie.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

So this is indeed looking like 2013 redux?

Yeah, a 2-3% Northam win is probably the most likely outcome.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

So this is indeed looking like 2013 redux?

Yeah, a 2-3% Northam win is probably the most likely outcome.

I'm kind of thinking 5-6 still.

Anywhere from Northam +8 to Gillespie +2 is about what I think is reasonable.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

So this is indeed looking like 2013 redux?

Yeah, a 2-3% Northam win is probably the most likely outcome.

I'm kind of thinking 5-6 still.

Anywhere from Northam +8 to Gillespie +2 is about what I think is reasonable.

Anything from Gillespie +10 to Northam +10 wouldnt surprise me.

Gillespie +10 is virtually impossible, and Northam +10 would absolutely shock me.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

1 hour to go!

My body is ready.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Yep, Northam has got this one.

When someone with a pro-Roy Moore meme in their signature says Northam's got this... he's probably got this.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Here we go. Gillespie win imminent.

https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/928043886039183362

I like how everyone in the comments is saying "Cue the Jeb! meme"

I wouldn't be surprised if he's just trolling and he's about to drop a Jeb! meme at 7.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If Gillespie wins or even comes within 3 points the Dems should just disband

A win is a win, no matter how narrow or wide.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

CNN reports dems are encouraged by NoVA turnout but worried about high SW VA turnout

I haven't seen any evidence of high SW VA turnout though???

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Supposedly 120%+ turnout compared to 2013 in SWVA
https://mobile.twitter.com/JakeBurnsCBS6/status/928040147316301825

Oh, it's GOP staff that's saying that... I'd take this with a grain of salt obviously.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

NYT now projects Northam +4.

That's the median range.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Northam winning by double digits does seem legit possible now

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Northam 2020?

Maybe 2024 or 2028 if he does a really decent job as Governor.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

CNN is still projecting this as an ultra close race.

For the ratings lol

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Northam 2020?

Maybe 2024 or 2028 if he does a really decent job as Governor.

He seems like more vice-presidential material, to me at least.  

Personally, I like him a bit more than Tim Kaine... so maybe he'd be a good running mate for a more progressive Dem.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If you're a Democrat right now, you've got to be bouncing off the freaking walls with excitement.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Lmao, according to NYT, Gillespie winning at all is now outside of the realm of plausibility more or less.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Vogel is Winning Virginia Beach by 10 points!

A wild Greedo appears...

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think you all owe Ralph a written apology for saying he was a terrible candidate.

Something something perriello something something bernie something something ossoff.

Perriello may well have done worse than this, it's looking like a Northam blowout.