Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why is the CDA doing so well in the north? Isn't that leftist country?

North is PvdA and CDA country. Populist and liberal parties arent doing well there

East Groningen begs to differ.

True, its more the rust belt.

This map will explain much of the Dutch electoral map
In the civil belt, CDA should be stronger than the VVD if they are close

Can anyone translate that map to English?

[I Won - Get Over It]

This is odd. NOS vote share is different from what Europe Elects twitter is reporting.

NOS has:

17.6% VVD
14.3% D66
13.1% GL
10.1% PVV
10.0% CDA

Europe Elects has:

22.4% VVD
13.2% GL
12.2% PVV
11.9% D66
11.3% CDA

Which one is correct?

NOS is prognosis based on the counted votes, EuropeElects are just the counted votes

Wait if this is prognosis why is seats prognosis so different?
PVV 11.3 (20 seats)
D66 12.8 (17 seats )

[SunSt0rm]

Why is the CDA doing so well in the north? Isn't that leftist country?

North is PvdA and CDA country. Populist and liberal parties arent doing well there

East Groningen begs to differ.

True, its more the rust belt.

This map will explain much of the Dutch electoral map
In the civil belt, CDA should be stronger than the VVD if they are close

Can anyone translate that map to English?

The results were based on the Ukraine referendum. Josse de Voogd, expert on geographical election made this map. Rust Belts are places PVV and SP should do well. Civil belt is place where populist parties wont do well, where CDA and PvdA should do well. Green belt are places where the D66 and GL should do well

[Crumpets]

So if I'm reading the map right, PvdA has yet to actually be declared the winner in a single seat?

If I am correct, Leeuwaarden is their only chance, if they lose their, they will not win any municipality

So, just to double-check, the municipality map from NOS does not equate to actual seats. Like, SGP leading in five doesn't translate to five seats, and Amsterdam (I assume) has more than one seat in the House of Representatives?

[Mike88]

Ipsos exit poll 18-24 year old:

18% D66
17% VVD
17% GL
12% PVV
12% CDA
  5% SP

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/842163251676893185

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Ipsos exit poll:

Low education level:

PVV-ENF: 23%
VVD-ALDE: 16%
SP-LEFT: 13%
CDA-EPP: 13%
D66-ALDE: 7%
GL-G/EFA: 7%

[SunSt0rm]

Ipsos exit poll 18-24 year old:

18% D66
17% VVD
17% GL
12% PVV
12% CDA
  5% SP

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/842163251676893185

I thought GL would do better than D66 with this group

[Velasco]

Results in Veendam municipality are quite impressive (in brackets 2012 election):

SP 18.7% (12.1%), PVV 16.3% (9.5%), VVD 14.1% (17.4%), CDA 10% (5.7%), PvdA 9.5% (42.2%), D66 9.4% (4.4%), GL 6.9% (1.1%) ...

[SunSt0rm]

New Prognose

VVD 32
PvdA 10
PVV 19
CDA 21
D66 18
GL 14
SP 14
PvdA 10
CU 6

VVD+CDA+D66+CU =76

[Diouf]

This is odd. NOS vote share is different from what Europe Elects twitter is reporting.

NOS has:

17.6% VVD
14.3% D66
13.1% GL
10.1% PVV
10.0% CDA

Europe Elects has:

22.4% VVD
13.2% GL
12.2% PVV
11.9% D66
11.3% CDA

Which one is correct?

NOS is prognosis based on the counted votes, EuropeElects are just the counted votes

Wait if this is prognosis why is seats prognosis so different?
PVV 11.3 (20 seats)
D66 12.8 (17 seats )

It did look weird at some point, but now it looks okay again. And the numbers on the red bars matches the numbers from the new prognosis NOS just made. CDA down to earth again, "only" a narrow 2nd.

[SunSt0rm]

So if I'm reading the map right, PvdA has yet to actually be declared the winner in a single seat?

If I am correct, Leeuwaarden is their only chance, if they lose their, they will not win any municipality

So, just to double-check, the municipality map from NOS does not equate to actual seats. Like, SGP leading in five doesn't translate to five seats, and Amsterdam (I assume) has more than one seat in the House of Representatives?

Purely proportional system.

Why is the CDA doing so well in the north? Isn't that leftist country?

North is PvdA and CDA country. Populist and liberal parties arent doing well there

East Groningen begs to differ.

True, its more the rust belt.

This map will explain much of the Dutch electoral map
In the civil belt, CDA should be stronger than the VVD if they are close

Can anyone translate that map to English?

The results were based on the Ukraine referendum. Josse de Voogd, expert on geographical election made this map. Rust Belts are places PVV and SP should do well. Civil belt is place where populist parties wont do well, where CDA and PvdA should do well. Green belt are places where the D66 and GL should do well

Just to add : the overgangzone is where Belgium should extend the cultural divide between the Catholic South and the Protestant North.

True, catholic will be vote for more populistic parties like PVV, SP and 50+. Protestant North votes more for CDA and PvdA

[DavidB.]

Voorlopige prognose:
VVD 32
PvdA 10
PVV 19
SP 14
CDA 20
D66 18
CU 6
GL 14
SGP 3
PvdD 5
50P 4
Denk 3
FvD 2

[Mike88]

Leeuwarden fliped from PvdA to VVD. PvdA lost 31% here.

[SunSt0rm]

Leeuwarden:
Ouch, PvdA isnt going to win any municipality tonight

[Classic Conservative]

VVD barely wins Rotterdam.

[Mike88]

Leeuwarden:
Ouch, PvdA isnt going to win any municipality tonight

[SunSt0rm]

VVD barely wins Rotterdam.

Ouch, for the PVV, who were favorite to win Rotterdam

Denk bigger than PvdA 8.1%-6.4%

[Lachi]

PPV only .3% behind in Rotterdam. VVD gains Rotterdam

[Zuza]

The magnitude of the catastrophe says that PvdA is the new PASOK.

Judging by their polling numbers yes, but PvdA will probably rebound in the future while PASOK seems to be dead for good.

[DavidB.]

VVD barely wins Rotterdam.

This is f*****ing big. The PVV messed up.

[Lachi]

Hauge goes to VVD

[SunSt0rm]

Urk as expected

[GlobeSoc]

Any chances for any other parties to get on the map?

[Lachi]

VVD won Den Hagg by 5.1% vs. PPV

[SunSt0rm]

Any chances for any other parties to get on the map?

No, Its only going to be VVD, CDA, D66, GL, PVV, CU and SGP. Leeuwarden was the only chance of PvdA, which they lose

The Hague