A New America Series - 1980 Primaries

[Maxwell]

A New America Series - 1980 Primaries

President Hatfield's troubles sadly did not stop with the end of 1976. Mark Hatfield had a poor working relationship with conservative leaders of his party already, and that relationship got worse after the rise of the Constitution Party. Conservatives demanded Hatfield stump for a balanced budget amendment, but Hatfield would not. Conservatives demanded he not sign the Democratically passed Education Department, but he signed it. But Hatfield's fire did not just reach Conservatives, as he vetoed more bills than any President before him. This difficult relationship did not help the economy which had continued to struggle and inflation came roaring back. Hatfield's new Fed Chairman, Paul Volcker, took immediate action to stop inflation, but this caused the unemployment rate to go from 7% to around 14%, increasing Hatfield's unpopularity further. This spelled doom for the Republican Party, who lost important Hatfield allies like Edward Brooke, Clifford Case, Charles Percy, and Glenn Cunningham (two of these, Case and Cunningham, fell in a primary). By 1979, with approvals averaging 32% and a congress that is completely opposed to his agenda, Hatfield felt his Presidency was lost. Historians would view Hatfield as possibly the biggest disappointment in American history - a caring Republican moderate who just could not get the job done.

The Republican Party candidates are largely running away from the Hatfield legacy and running more conservative, in attempts to stop the growth of the Constitution Party, who currently hold 21 seats in the House and 3 Senate seats (Michigan's John Williams, New York's James Buckley, and South Dakota's Armey Richardson). The first two candidates are Senator Donald Rumsfeld and Senator Paul Laxalt, also rans from 1972. Rumsfeld is a largely a foreign policy hawk, who demands more foreign action abroad, but he also is a staunch fiscal conservative, calling for a large tax cut and reduction in Government. The difference between Laxalt and Rumsfeld is largely in style, affiliation, and on abortion (Rumsfeld is of the Reagan Pro-Choice tradition, Laxalt is pro-life). Vice President Howard Baker is also running, despite his odds being low, promoting himself as a problem solver and someone who could win a general election. He has distanced himself some from President Hatfield, but not as much as many expect, praising the President as a "deeply caring, honest man full of integrity". Ideologically, the only person running on a Hatfield-esqe platform is Former Interior Secretary Dan Evans, a Former Governor of Washington state. Evans is running on education reform, reducing the budget deficit, and fighting inflation. Senator George H.W. Bush is also one of the favorites, running as a pro-choice moderate conservative from a state where Republicans have had difficulty statewide. H.W. plans a moderate tax cut, while criticizing Laxalt and Rumsfeld for endorsing a form of voodoo economics. Next there's Minority Whip Bob Dole, who thinks the best way to fight inflation is reducing the size of Government. Finally, Senator Paul Gann is running on the weird strategy set forth by Former Congressman Larry McDonald - make sure the parties know how much Constitution Party support there is. Gann is deeply anti-tax, so much so that he is promoting a flat tax of 15%, and ending programs that are deemed "unconstitutional".

Democrats are also in a period of re-thinking their ideas, and that's why Former Secretary of State Robert Kennedy is regarded as the frontrunner. He ran in 1976 under the banner of being a "New Democrat", one that expresses concern for the budget, wants to fight crime, and at the same time remain true to certain liberal principles. McGovern's poor performance in 1976 has only embolden Kennedy supporters. Kennedy's problem, however, is his flip flop on abortion - he has flipped from pro-life to strongly pro-choice. This has caused some of his support to flood away from him. And he's not alone in the field - on the moderate side there is also Former Governor Albert Brewer, Senator Robert Duncan, and Senator Patrick Lucey. Brewer ran with McGovern in 76, and despite McGovern's poor performance in the South and elsewhere, people regarded that Brewer did a good job running with him. Brewer is a New South Governor, and promotes civil rights, and building up infrastructure and education to end unemployment, as well as tax credits for the middle class. Robert Duncan is a loud and vocal Neoconservative, demanding that we expand the military in order to be able to deal with foes abroad like the flailing Russia. Lucey's single issue is public education, how can we improve it. The Liberal wing of the party, in something of a dissary, are going with any of Governor Jerry Brown, Senator Birch Bayh, or Former Governor Henry Howell. Jerry Brown is an odd bird - deeply enviormentalist, pro-high speed rail, and pro-universal healthcare - but he also promotes his ability as a fiscal conservative, balancing budgets in California and praising Prop 13. Bayh is running on fighting poverty again, criticising Republicans as completely unconcerned for the poor. Henry Howell takes it even further, as Howell is running as a anti-business populist, chastising both parties as being controlled by the "special interests". And Senator John Williams won his legal challenge to run on the Democratic Party, and is running a deeply conservative campaign and promising, if he loses the primary to endorse Larry McDonald for President.

And finally there's the Constitution Party. Continuing to make gains in Congress, their leader, Former Congressman Larry McDonald, is running again as a staunch constitutional conservative. He's criticized Hatfield as being a weak, pompous, pretentious man, and plans on repealing the Education Department, instating a flat tax and  repealing any department not explicitly instated in the constitution. McDonald only faces a minor challenge from the near-death Howard Jarvis, leader of the California TAX REVOLT.

[Maxwell]

Time for some old school populism, time for Howell/Lucey or Howell/Brown!

[Intell]

Howell!

[Cassius]

Paul Laxalt.

[SNJ1985]

McDonald!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

McDonald/Buckley

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Bayh!

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

McDonald '80. Let's make America great again.

[Classic Conservative]

McDonald/Buckley

[Mr. Smith]

Brown/Proxmire.

Do I align better with Howell? Yeah

But the intellect of Brown is practically unmatched, and what he's done for California has been pretty good.

[Zioneer]

Governor Jerry Brown, his aura smiles and never frowns, soon he will be president...

[Maxwell]

Let's bump this.

[Blair]

RFK/Brown

[Sumner 1868]

Moonbeam.

[Kingpoleon]

Bush/Evans!

[Maxwell]

Interesting results - it doesn't look like McDonald is going to have much ideological wiggle room if he goes against Paul Laxalt as the Republican nominee.

[Maxwell]

Closing this up - when I get to a computer with all my files, I will get to posting the primary map.

[Maxwell]

A New America Series - 1980 Primaries

The Republican side began with pretty clear leaders - Senator Paul Laxalt, with Ronald Reagan's significant endorsement, leads the Republican field in public opinion polls, and is followed by Donald Rumsfeld (who seemed destined to win Iowa) and Howard Baker (whose campaign largely hopes the divisions of other candidates leads to some primary victories). The Republican field is significantly shaken up when Senator George H.W. Bush upsets Rumsfeld to win Iowa. Further more, the field is shaken up further when Baker, Bush, and Laxalt divide the more establishment-ish vote to allow Paul Gann to win New Hampshire. Gann's win in the state is not a boon for him, and forces the Republicans to focus on who could seriously win a general election. Laxalt and Bush largely battle it out, with Bob Dole, Dan Evans, and Donald Rumsfeld winning their home states, and Gann continuing to nip the occasional primary. Baker comes close to reviving his candidacy multiple times, including a shock upset in New Jersey and clearing his home state of Tennessee with every single county, but the President's unpopularity holds Baker down. The primary comes down to California, where Bush and Laxalt tie, but Bush, when asked what he would do as President, responds "Oh, the vision thing". It sends a shiver down moderate Republican spines, who wonder if Bush's penchant for misstatements would haunt him in the general. As a result, Laxalt wins California by a decent margin even as home state Senator Gann takes 15% of the vote, and Laxalt clears enough delegates for the win.

Senator Paul Laxalt (R-NV) - 37.5%, 27 States
Senator George H.W. Bush (R-TX) - 25%, 10 States
Vice President Howard Baker (R-TN) - 12.5%, 5 States + D.C.
Senator Paul Gann (R-CA) - 6.3%, 3 States
Former Interior Secretary Dan Evans (R-WA) - 6.3%, 2 States
Senator Bob Dole (R-KS) - 6.3%, 2 States
Senator Donald Rumsfeld (R-IL) - 6.3%, 1 State

The Democratic runaway frontrunner was again Former Secretary of State Robert Kennedy. Despite lacking political experience, Kennedy's speaking ability brings crowds to their feet, and his foreign policy expertise is wide and varied. But Kennedy's downfall comes from two places: one, his flip flop on abortion, and two, his inability to vocalize why he wants to be President. These two developments haunt him all the way to the Iowa caucuses, where he is again upset. This time it's by populist Former Governor Henry Howell. Howell is originally towards the bottom of the pack, but his deliberate focus and his graceful skills as a shaking hands type politician allows him to win the caucus easily (Senator Birch Bayh takes second place). Bayh would again receive second place, this time in New Hampshire. Bayh's focus on both states basically ends his candidacy, where he wins his home state of Indiana. Brewer hoped his stronger than expected performance in Iowa could allow him to sweep the Southern primaries, but by that time Howell has already taken the mantle of populist Southerner, and beats him in South Carolina and Florida, effectively ending Brewer's campaign.

Howell and Kennedy become agitated warriors, which allows California Governor Jerry Brown to rise from the middle and defeat both. Brown treads the line between the two - advocating for liberal policies like healthcare, education reform, middle class tax cuts, but also emphasizing that he is a unique kind of Democrat, one dedicated to balancing the Federal Budget. Brown is able to take part of the populist mantle without offending moderates, and gain African American support even as Howell maintains the strongest civil rights record.

Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA) - 37.5%, 25 States + D.C.
Former Governor Henry Howell (D-VA) - 25%, 15 States
Former Secretary of State Robert Kennedy (D-MA) - 25%, 8 States
Former Governor Albert Brewer (D-AL) - 6.3%, 1 State
Senator Birch Bayh (D-IN) - 6.3%, 1 State