United Kingdom General Election 2024 : (Date to be confirmed)

[Frodo]

Poll shows almost total wipeout for the Conservatives in Wales

[somerandomth]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1747751843453604071?s=20

Interesting to see the stark difference between YouGov's MRP model and their standard opinion polling. Almost a 14% difference in the lead between the two polls is HUGE and I think would be more widely discussed within the media if the polls were closer (for example, a 14% difference in lead would be the difference between the 2019 result and Jeremy Corbyn being in Number 10).

It could just be an outlier lead for Labour, but even then there does seem to be a consistent trend of YouGov opinion polls being above the average (note that this doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong, just different). If we assume that polls will tighten as the election comes around, it will be interesting to see how much this disaparity between polling firms (or between MRP and opinion polling) will hold and how this will affect the media narrative.

[icc]

Interesting to see the stark difference between YouGov's MRP model and their standard opinion polling. Almost a 14% difference in the lead between the two polls is HUGE and I think would be more widely discussed within the media if the polls were closer (for example, a 14% difference in lead would be the difference between the 2019 result and Jeremy Corbyn being in Number 10).

It could just be an outlier lead for Labour, but even then there does seem to be a consistent trend of YouGov opinion polls being above the average (note that this doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong, just different). If we assume that polls will tighten as the election comes around, it will be interesting to see how much this disaparity between polling firms (or between MRP and opinion polling) will hold and how this will affect the media narrative.

YouGov used different methodology to their usual for the MRP. Their normal methodology tends to overemphasise trends (I guess as a result of using a politically 'switched on' panel). Rather than tending to be better for Labour / Tories / Lib Dems etc., YouGov generally shows parties doing well doing very well, and those doing badly very badly.

[CumbrianLefty]

Excitement about individual outliers aside, the general polling trend for the past month has been not in the Tories favour. Which makes a GE in May less likely.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

These are the kinds of poll numbers which led to Truss's removal. If this is indeed the direction the polls are headed towards, would MPs revolt against Rishi that close before the election? Is there even a plan B C D?

[Harry Hayfield]

Poll shows almost total wipeout for the Conservatives in Wales

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe is vulnerable to tactical voting (especially as those Labour voters have been moved from Neath, a rock solid Labour seat, into a Con seat therefore they will vote for the party best placed to beat the Conservatives and that will be the Lib Dems) but Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, that will only be a Con loss if there is a single opposition candidate

[oldtimer]

Poll shows almost total wipeout for the Conservatives in Wales

Swings in Welsh polls are very close to the national swings, and most of the times more accurate than national UK polls.

So this particular poll would give you:

CON: 45 -16 = 29
LAB: 33 + 6 = 39
LD:11 + 2 = 13
REF:2 + 7 = 9
GRN:3 + 6 = 9

Pretty much close to the national average, apart from the Green's being stronger in Yougov polls at the expence of Labour.

The picture still remains the same:
Conservative vote scattering left and right, Labour losing a few socialists to the Greens.

[MABA 2020]

These are the kinds of poll numbers which led to Truss's removal. If this is indeed the direction the polls are headed towards, would MPs revolt against Rishi that close before the election? Is there even a plan B C D?

Pretty funny that Rishi was the break glass in case of emergency candidate, there is no one else, they're stuck

[Duke of York]

These are the kinds of poll numbers which led to Truss's removal. If this is indeed the direction the polls are headed towards, would MPs revolt against Rishi that close before the election? Is there even a plan B C D?

who could they go with that would reverse the tide? Starmer isn't the best leader either but if numbers like this held even Sunak could lose his seat.

[mileslunn]

Some are suggesting Starmer not much different than Sunak as he wants to reduce deficit and opposes most tax hikes (a few like taxing private schools and non-dom, but none that are big revenue raisers) so wondering if that is allowing Labour to win in areas wouldn't otherwise.  Likewise could Greens do well in strongholds where some may feel he is too pro business and not change they want?

[TheTide]

These are the kinds of poll numbers which led to Truss's removal. If this is indeed the direction the polls are headed towards, would MPs revolt against Rishi that close before the election? Is there even a plan B C D?

who could they go with that would reverse the tide? Starmer isn't the best leader either but if numbers like this held even Sunak could lose his seat.

I can't be reversed. 

[EastAnglianLefty]

Poll shows almost total wipeout for the Conservatives in Wales

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe is vulnerable to tactical voting (especially as those Labour voters have been moved from Neath, a rock solid Labour seat, into a Con seat therefore they will vote for the party best placed to beat the Conservatives and that will be the Lib Dems) but Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, that will only be a Con loss if there is a single opposition candidate

It's at least as likely that the addition of the Swansea Valley means that Labour supporters in Ystradgynlais and Brecon start voting for their preferred party and the reverse happens.

In Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, about 50k electors come from Montgomery and 25k from Clwyd South. Getting a Labour lead twice as large out of Rhosllanerchrugog and environs as the Tory lead from Montgomeryshire is conceivable, but not exactly easy when Labour also has to make sure it gains much lower-hanging fruit elsewhere in North Wales.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some are suggesting Starmer not much different than Sunak

Some people say all sorts of things, doesn't mean they are true.

[Duke of York]

I think it's pretty safe to say Labour will wind up with a possibly historic majority unless polls tighten significantly once the writ is dropped.

[Pericles]

Lmao, someone appears to have pranked Sunak into recording a Cameo-style video for Nigel Farage. This can't be real, surely?

[mileslunn]

Some are suggesting Starmer not much different than Sunak

Some people say all sorts of things, doesn't mean they are true.

True although opposition to higher taxes on wealthy in all forms probably doesn't go over too well with more left wing types but may help with swing voters and also with tax brackets frozen probably not necessary (would be if indexed).  Likewise budgeting rules while smart economically, may upset some who want bigger spending.  I do think Starmer though is pretty centrists and right now that is probably best you can do.  More progressive types like Ardern and Marin lost, Sanchez only hung on by cozying up with separatists and Trudeau is well behind in polls at moment so does seem less appetite for a strongly progressive government.  Sinn Fein I guess leading in polls but still may have trouble forming government or have to water down policies.  Ironically on right, more ideological ones doing quite well globally.

[oldtimer]

There appears to be an attempt by Conservatives to get rid of Sunak underway.

[robocop]

Some are suggesting Starmer not much different than Sunak as he wants to reduce deficit and opposes most tax hikes (a few like taxing private schools and non-dom, but none that are big revenue raisers) so wondering if that is allowing Labour to win in areas wouldn't otherwise.  Likewise could Greens do well in strongholds where some may feel he is too pro business and not change they want?

A Labour to Green swing in the woke strongholds could happen in the election after next, after a Labour government have started and radical types are disappointed they are not left enough.

I cannot however see it causing many or indeed any seats to elect Green MPs.

[Harry Hayfield]

There appears to be an attempt by Conservatives to get rid of Sunak underway.

The call came from the Conservative MP for Middlesborough South (who was a Cabinet Minister under Truss) and has been rebuffed by Tobias Ellwood MP (Con, Bournemouth East) who was a defence minister under Theresa May.

[somerandomth]

A Labour to Green swing in the woke strongholds could happen in the election after next, after a Labour government have started and radical types are disappointed they are not left enough.

I cannot however see it causing many or indeed any seats to elect Green MPs.

This feels like the 2005 election with the Lib Dems vs. Labour, where the Lib Dems made progress in a lot of labour strongholds, but failed to massively progress seat-wise.

[Flyersfan232]

I think it's pretty safe to say Labour will wind up with a possibly historic majority unless polls tighten significantly once the writ is dropped.

best case for the tories is reserve 2019 at this point

[Harry Hayfield]

If I run* should I do it as an independent or for Reform? I think independents have more chance of a victory than attaching a minor party label to your ballot line. Plus if you run for a party they might tell you that you have to run in some absolute hole in Sunderland or Southampton rather than in your local seat. However, Reform did ask me to apply for the local elections (I didn't). They're not a serious outfit though. The other issue is that I know my local MPs and don't really want to stand against them. Plus my local Labour candidate is kinda fit.

*Quite unlikely I actually go through with it but I've always wanted to do it.



Harry, have you been selected for anywhere yet? You should definitely run again.

I have expressed an interest in standing for the Greens, but so far that is all I have done, it is now down to them to decide whether my standing has merit or not.

The constituency that I would have liked to have stood in told me that a local councillor who wishes to stand for the Senedd had put his name forward, and as I have stated that if they could find no one else to stand I would stand, I graciously let him stand being far more local than me, so today when the call was published for local candidates for this constituency I have asked for an application form

[afleitch]

Hopefully without error. The 2019 notionals;

[Torrain]

New Scotland-specific poll from Norstat (formerly Panelbase) :

Westminster Voting Intention:

• Labour 36% (+3)
• SNP: 33% (-4)
• Conservatives: 16% (-2)
• Lib Dems: 7% (no change)
• Reform: 4%

Net approval ratings for party leaders:

• Anas Sarwar: -17%
• Nicola Sturgeon: -19%
• Keir Starmer: -24%
• Humza Yousaf: -25%
• Douglas Ross: -38%
• Rishi Sunak: -48%

Seat projection from electionmapsuk (Lab 31, SNP 15, Tory 6, Lib 5):

[afleitch]

Given that the poll was conducted during the media bacchanalia, it's not that bad for the SNP. They improved their standing on the Holyrood polling too. And 'Yes' only one point behind.

The best outcome, if they don't lose their heads, is taking a slap down at the GE, then facing the electorate at Holyrood in 2026; eighteen months to two years into a Labour government. If Labour are seen to be a disappointment (if) that could still be to their benefit.