United Kingdom General Election 2024 : (Date to be confirmed)

[CumbrianLefty]

And today’s prize for bad reporting of polls goes to those who have taken a Survation poll of British Muslims and used its figures with undecided voters included for a comparison with the last General Election.

Let me guess, does this include a Twitter account with the initials SFL?

Though on this occasion they were only getting their bad take from an actual ITV political reporter, who took a strikingly long time to take their original outright false tweet down.

[TheTide]

This is a rather special way of framing your latest poll...

https://twitter.com/techneUK/status/1755916286943477964?s=20

[MABA 2020]

After two and a half years of nothing but bad news for Tories you gotta do what you can to create some competition

[Mike88]

Why did they put a picture of their January poll?? It doesn't make sense.

[DL]

That is wat's known as a "dead cat bounce"

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1756407689570132235
Largest Opinium lead since June last year.

There’s been a lot of spilled ink about how the behaviour of “don’t know” respondents in surveys that weigh like Opinium and the YouGov MRP offer a glimmer of hope to the Tories. If even they have an 18% lead…

[YL]

Pinch of salt time again...

We have another MRP, by FindOutNowUK and Electoral Calculus for the Mirror (link)

Lab 452 (inc. Speaker, it seems)
Con 80
Lib Dem 53
SNP 40
Plaid 4
Green 2
Ashfield Independents 1

Curiously, in spite of showing such a massive landslide it has Labour losing two seats: Bristol Central to the Greens and Sheffield Hallam to the Lib Dems. Both Labour and the Lib Dems hold all their by-election gains, at least if you take the main successor seat in each case. (Tiverton & Minehead it has as Labour!) In Scotland it has a complete Tory wipeout, but in Wales it has them holding Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe.

[Oryxslayer]

Mirror out with peice on a potential May election.  Seemingly the biggest point here is Sunaks colleagues want to prevent a rebellion once the budget is through,  something that only becomes more likely with every cut delivered electorally by Labour.

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe the PM shouldn't worry, the Speaker is Tory MPs main enemy now

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1760644651793436907

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labour’s inability to poll above 50% is literally the only cope the Tories have left.

[Duke of York]

Mirror out with peice on a potential May election.  Seemingly the biggest point here is Sunaks colleagues want to prevent a rebellion once the budget is through,  something that only becomes more likely with every cut delivered electorally by Labour.

what are the odds we get a May election?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Latest MeGov Westminster voting intention (21-22 Feb)

Con: 18% (-2 from 20-21 Feb)
Lab: 35% (-11)
Lib Dem: 4% (-5)
Reform UK: 9% (-4)
Green: 4% (-3)
SNP: 4% (=)
Speaker: 25% (+25)

It's a revolution! Political earthquake! Tsunami democràtic!

[Duke of York]

Latest MeGov Westminster voting intention (21-22 Feb)

Con: 18% (-2 from 20-21 Feb)
Lab: 35% (-11)
Lib Dem: 4% (-5)
Reform UK: 9% (-4)
Green: 4% (-3)
SNP: 4% (=)
Speaker: 25% (+25)

It's a revolution! Political earthquake! Tsunami democràtic!

Why is Speaker included in the poll?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Latest MeGov Westminster voting intention (21-22 Feb)

Con: 18% (-2 from 20-21 Feb)
Lab: 35% (-11)
Lib Dem: 4% (-5)
Reform UK: 9% (-4)
Green: 4% (-3)
SNP: 4% (=)
Speaker: 25% (+25)

It's a revolution! Political earthquake! Tsunami democràtic!

Why is Speaker included in the poll?

MeGov declines to reveal my their stringent polling techniques.

[Torrain]

Another round of "it's definitely 1992, trust us" in the i. Includes all those iron-clad arguments we've come to know and love:

The internal polls are better:
“Some of us are doubting the methodology they’re using,” one senior Tory source has said in response to Labour poll leads of more than 20 points. “Internal party polling is showing that it is a lot closer with Red Wall seats at 10 points and in some places we’re only 5 points behind.”

Labour's lead is soft:
A former Tory Cabinet minister told i that he believed Labour’s support was “wide but soft” and said: “We expect that [lead] to start to fade to 10 per cent or under and that makes the election a contest rather than a shoo-in for Labour. Being asked for your preference today is very different from how you are going to vote in six months.”

Byelection turnout is low, so there's no enthusiasm for Labour:
“The [by-election] results were not good for Labour,” another Tory MP told i. “In Wellingborough, they got around 100 more than 2019 when they should be way ahead. 2019 was a bad year. In Kingswood, they were 5000 less than 2019.

Who is this even for, at this stage?

[Mike88]

Who is this even for, at this stage?

I think this is directly to the Conservative electorate. Polling and forecasts, not to mention the image this government gives, are so bad for them that they fear the Tory electorate will just skip this election and not vote. So, they need to send "propaganda" saying "look, it's close", "(please) go vote, we still can win this".

[Oryxslayer]

Who is this even for, at this stage?

I think this is directly to the Conservative electorate. Polling and forecasts, not to mention the image this government gives, are so bad for them that they fear the Tory electorate will just skip this election and not vote. So, they need to send "propaganda" saying "look, it's close", "(please) go vote, we still can win this".

Once the election starts we'll probably see the massage shift to something like "Don't let Labour go unchecked" if the intention is actually to get the base out and save some amount furniture/dignity.

[TheTide]

Who is this even for, at this stage?

I think this is directly to the Conservative electorate. Polling and forecasts, not to mention the image this government gives, are so bad for them that they fear the Tory electorate will just skip this election and not vote. So, they need to send "propaganda" saying "look, it's close", "(please) go vote, we still can win this".

Once the election starts we'll probably see the massage shift to something like "Don't let Labour go unchecked" if the intention is actually to get the base out and save some amount furniture/dignity.

Any given major party admitting that they have lost the election before polling day had come around is almost invariably a recipe for disaster.

[WD]

Another round of "it's definitely 1992, trust us" in the i. Includes all those iron-clad arguments we've come to know and love:

The internal polls are better:
“Some of us are doubting the methodology they’re using,” one senior Tory source has said in response to Labour poll leads of more than 20 points. “Internal party polling is showing that it is a lot closer with Red Wall seats at 10 points and in some places we’re only 5 points behind.”

Labour's lead is soft:
A former Tory Cabinet minister told i that he believed Labour’s support was “wide but soft” and said: “We expect that [lead] to start to fade to 10 per cent or under and that makes the election a contest rather than a shoo-in for Labour. Being asked for your preference today is very different from how you are going to vote in six months.”

Byelection turnout is low, so there's no enthusiasm for Labour:
“The [by-election] results were not good for Labour,” another Tory MP told i. “In Wellingborough, they got around 100 more than 2019 when they should be way ahead. 2019 was a bad year. In Kingswood, they were 5000 less than 2019.

Who is this even for, at this stage?

The by-election stuff is less so cope and more a literal misunderstanding of how elections work. Labour got 500ish less votes in the ‘94 Dudley West by-election than at the 1992 GE in that seat. Clearly they were doomed….

[CumbrianLefty]

Who is this even for, at this stage?

But again, its arguably the media stenographing it so uncritically which is the real problem.

[Pres Mike]

I think waiting 5 years for an election is insane!

[afleitch]

I think waiting 5 years for an election is insane!

It's not that unusual. There was just a very busy five years prior in which we had three general elections and two big constitutional referenda.

What's made this election unique is that it will, seemingly, demolish what should historically be a 'two term' proof majority in one go due to the churn of PM's and the post Brexit 'comedown'.

[Pericles]

Personally I think 4 years is actually a good way to do it, 5 is a bit too long and 3 like we have in NZ is too short. There is no 'science' to this though so I don't think you can prove benefits to term lengths either way.

This election will also be interesting as the switch from one landslide to another will likely mean it's the biggest swing in modern times.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Postwar norm was that a standard parliament should be four years with the fifth year as a 'reserve'.