Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

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Here is a fairly reliable 8-7 GA map I made based on the 2018 Governor numbers.



There are 4 minority majority districts. 5 (69.2%), 7 (63.2%), 10 (59.2%), and 2 (51.6%).

• District 1 - Abrams 11.2
• District 2 - Abrams 8.1
• District 3 - Kemp 38.6
• District 4 - Kemp 30.6
• District 5 - Abrams 51.6
• District 6 - Abrams 10
• District 7 - Abrams 70.8 (Most of the city of Atlanta)
• District 8 - Abrams 11.3
• District 9 - Abrams 12
• District 10 - Abrams 37.9
• District 11 - Kemp 33.4
• District 12 - Kemp 53
• District 13 - Kemp 41
• District 14 - Kemp 53.3

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Here is a fairly reliable 8-7 GA map I made based on the 2018 Governor numbers.



There are 4 minority majority districts. 5 (69.2%), 7 (63.2%), 10 (59.2%), and 2 (51.6%).

• District 1 - Abrams 11.2
• District 2 - Abrams 8.1
• District 3 - Kemp 38.6
• District 4 - Kemp 30.6
• District 5 - Abrams 51.6
• District 6 - Abrams 10
• District 7 - Abrams 70.8 (Most of the city of Atlanta)
• District 8 - Abrams 11.3
• District 9 - Abrams 12
• District 10 - Abrams 37.9
• District 11 - Kemp 33.4
• District 12 - Kemp 53
• District 13 - Kemp 41
• District 14 - Kemp 53.3

This is a pretty good fair map. Not completely agreeable in everything but quite good in reflecting the statewide composition while also keeping things clean and compact and respecting county lines.

Tbh I wasn’t trying to make a fair map, but rather a sensible dem gerrymander. How could it be improved?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Here is a fairly reliable 8-7 GA map I made based on the 2018 Governor numbers.



There are 4 minority majority districts. 5 (69.2%), 7 (63.2%), 10 (59.2%), and 2 (51.6%).

• District 1 - Abrams 11.2
• District 2 - Abrams 8.1
• District 3 - Kemp 38.6
• District 4 - Kemp 30.6
• District 5 - Abrams 51.6
• District 6 - Abrams 10
• District 7 - Abrams 70.8 (Most of the city of Atlanta)
• District 8 - Abrams 11.3
• District 9 - Abrams 12
• District 10 - Abrams 37.9
• District 11 - Kemp 33.4
• District 12 - Kemp 53
• District 13 - Kemp 41
• District 14 - Kemp 53.3

This is a pretty good fair map. Not completely agreeable in everything but quite good in reflecting the statewide composition while also keeping things clean and compact and respecting county lines.

Tbh I wasn’t trying to make a fair map, but rather a sensible dem gerrymander. How could it be improved?

I think the border between 1 and 4 could be straightened. 13 and 14 could also be changed, but I have doubts that it could be improved very much, and I kind of feel this is the most compact realistic arrangement. I haven't much to complain about the shapes of 10, 11, and 13.

The 1st only contains 1 county split. You can actually make it have 0 county splits but that makes it a lot less compact and the county added on only has two roads connecting it with the rest of the district. 11th is interesting as it contains Athens and Gainesville and a lot of the far edge suburbs of Georgia that if the metro keeps growing it likely will be a swing district by the end of the decade

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Here's an ATL highlight
 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Here is a fairly reliable 8-7 GA map I made based on the 2018 Governor numbers.



There are 4 minority majority districts. 5 (69.2%), 7 (63.2%), 10 (59.2%), and 2 (51.6%).

• District 1 - Abrams 11.2
• District 2 - Abrams 8.1
• District 3 - Kemp 38.6
• District 4 - Kemp 30.6
• District 5 - Abrams 51.6
• District 6 - Abrams 10
• District 7 - Abrams 70.8 (Most of the city of Atlanta)
• District 8 - Abrams 11.3
• District 9 - Abrams 12
• District 10 - Abrams 37.9
• District 11 - Kemp 33.4
• District 12 - Kemp 53
• District 13 - Kemp 41
• District 14 - Kemp 53.3

This is a pretty good fair map. Not completely agreeable in everything but quite good in reflecting the statewide composition while also keeping things clean and compact and respecting county lines.

Tbh I wasn’t trying to make a fair map, but rather a sensible dem gerrymander. How could it be improved?

I think the border between 1 and 4 could be straightened. 13 and 14 could also be changed, but I have doubts that it could be improved very much, and I kind of feel this is the most compact realistic arrangement. I haven't much to complain about the shapes of 10, 11, and 13.

The 1st only contains 1 county split. You can actually make it have 0 county splits but that makes it a lot less compact and the county added on only has two roads connecting it with the rest of the district. 11th is interesting as it contains Athens and Gainesville and a lot of the far edge suburbs of Georgia that if the metro keeps growing it likely will be a swing district by the end of the decade

Oh I don't doubt that the 1st splits barely any counties. I just thought that adding Statesboro and giving up part of the Black Belt would just help with aestetics.

Yea I’d rather have Statesboro in it. But the issue is it’s too populous compared to the other counties. Adding Statesboro makes the map look kinda worse as you have to take away a lot of counties. It also makes it less democratic as much of the states given up are in the black belt

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So I've been playing around with this map and I wanted to see if I could make a sensible looking map with the following criteria

• 7 safe enough Democratic seats in the Atlanta Metro
• 2 minimum African American seats in the Atlanta Metro
• 1 seat for the entire city of Atlanta
• Have Athens be in a democratic district

It's very easy to make a map with two of these requirements, but I thought all three might pose a challenge. For this I used the 2018 Gubernatorial election. It took a bit of work but I came up with this map




District 9 and 7 are the two majority African-American. Districts 2 and 6 are Minority Majority, and Districts 1 and 5 are just barely majority white, which when you consider the local racial/political breakdown means that they are functionally majority minority districts. Also District 11 is just 54% white and contains the states largest share of asians. Its very likely be that Georgia could send seven minorities to congress.

• District 01 Abrams 11.4
• District 02 Abrams Abrams 8.3
• District 03 Kemp 38.3
• District 04 Kemp 31.3
• District 05 Abrams 12.6
• District 06 Abrams 15.5
• District 07 Abrams 30.8
• District 08 Abrams 10.7
• District 09 Abrams 63.5
• District 10 Abrams 15.2
• District 11 Abrams 10.3
• District 12 Kemp 51
• District 13 Kemp 44.8
• District 14 Kemp 52.6

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So I've been playing around with this map and I wanted to see if I could make a sensible looking map with the following criteria

• 7 safe enough Democratic seats in the Atlanta Metro
• 2 minimum African American seats in the Atlanta Metro
• 1 seat for the entire city of Atlanta
• Have Athens be in a democratic district

It's very easy to make a map with two of these requirements, but I thought all three might pose a challenge. For this I used the 2018 Gubernatorial election. It took a bit of work but I came up with this map




District 9 and 7 are the two majority African-American. Districts 2 and 6 are Minority Majority, and Districts 1 and 5 are just barely majority white, which when you consider the local racial/political breakdown means that they are functionally majority minority districts. Also District 11 is just 54% white and contains the states largest share of asians. Its very likely be that Georgia could send seven minorities to congress.

• District 01 Abrams 11.4
• District 02 Abrams Abrams 8.3
• District 03 Kemp 38.3
• District 04 Kemp 31.3
• District 05 Abrams 12.6
• District 06 Abrams 15.5
• District 07 Abrams 30.8
• District 08 Abrams 10.7
• District 09 Abrams 63.5
• District 10 Abrams 15.2
• District 11 Abrams 10.3
• District 12 Kemp 51
• District 13 Kemp 44.8
• District 14 Kemp 52.6

3 black seats are needed in ATL

The 6th is plurality black

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Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

I would argue they’re not at all a community of interest. The suburbs of Augusta and the city of Augusta are entirely different in politics, income, and racial identity. Augusta finds better with the black belt and Savannah, while the suburbs are closer to places like Gainesville

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Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

I would argue they’re not at all a community of interest. The suburbs of Augusta and the city of Augusta are entirely different in politics, income, and racial identity. Augusta finds better with the black belt and Savannah, while the suburbs are closer to places like Gainesville

Do you like the 10th and 1st on the second map?

Yea it looks pretty good. Personally I like having Huntsville with Savannah, but then you can’t have Statesboro. So it comes down to personal choice.

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Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

I would argue they’re not at all a community of interest. The suburbs of Augusta and the city of Augusta are entirely different in politics, income, and racial identity. Augusta finds better with the black belt and Savannah, while the suburbs are closer to places like Gainesville

Do you like the 10th and 1st on the second map?

Yea it looks pretty good. Personally I like having Huntsville with Savannah, but then you can’t have Statesboro. So it comes down to personal choice.

Thoughts on the 8th in my first map?

That was I thought was a little odd. Augusta should really be in a district along the Savannah River, either north or south

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/01/gerrymander-marjorie-taylor-greene-lose-seat/?utm_source=reddit.com

Lol,I do wonder if they try this to any degree(mostly futile due to the fact she's a carpetbagger)

I don’t see how, without giving democrats a new seat in a disgusting way. All of her FEC filing is actually out of district so even then She’d run in a red sage seat. If you lump her in with an incumbent she’ll primary and she will beat them. She’s a cancer and doesn’t deserve a seat in congress, but as long as there’s a Republican seat in north west Georgia she’s going to be in congress.

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Anyone else working on State Senate maps?
(Reminder you can split precincts now)

The ability to splint precincts is so cool, but I noticed when I was doing some maps for fun that the President data isn’t accurate yet (atleast for South Carolina), and that it just assumed that every block voted the same as the precinct

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Anyone else working on State Senate maps?
(Reminder you can split precincts now)

The ability to splint precincts is so cool, but I noticed when I was doing some maps for fun that the President data isn’t accurate yet (atleast for South Carolina), and that it just assumed that every block voted the same as the precinct

Even if the data might be 99.97% or so accurate as opposed to 100% accurate, the ability to split precincts in places like Cobb is a game-changer.

Oh no yea it definitely is, the annoying city/precinct overlap is so annoying to work with, but my point of it was doing smaller districts (state house/senate) it can make a difference. I noticed it when I was splitting some precincts that had stark racial divides and the precinct may have been mostly republican/democrat, but it was showing the results the exact percentage that the precinct had which would be unrealistic if they are accurate. It doesn’t matter much for congressional and I am just so thrilled and happy and appreciative they added it, and the discrepancy won’t change much for congressional maps, just something to be conscious of as you make small districts.

And also it’s theoretically possible for them to get the block data. I know when I’ve doorknocked the campaign has data on how households voted going back a few cycles, but I know how easy that would be to implement as especially because I’m not a programmer. I don’t fault them for adding it at all.

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I was testing out the knew precinct splitting tool () by making a GA senate map and its soo good. I was kinda vaguely drawing to help democrats and it turned out to be a pretty even proportional map with the balance of power lying in a handful of swing districts in the southern part of the state and suburbs of Georgia. I really like how the districts look especially how they tend to follow natural barriers such as roads and rivers, as well as how it creates a competitive map.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/42a0d7a3-b956-4bd4-92e4-a10f1083d2dc

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God I hate Marietta’s precincts

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Columbus is far worse than Marietta or Reno, both the latter 2 can easily be placed in the same district.

Oh god I forgot about Columbus, probably for a reason

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Here's a 4-10 map that could become a 5-9 0r 6-8, but also could not. Either way this is a pretty clean gerrymander for Republicans and likely the lowest they can get VRA wise.

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Georgia Dems have released a proposal.

Shores up Bordeux, keeps the 6th intact, divides the current 9th between the 10th (renumbered to 9th) and 14th. Creates a new plurality black district anchored in Cobb.

Surprised they didn't do much about the gerrymanders in Augusta and Savannah.

What are the demographics of 12? It might be able to be competitive with enough rural black turnout

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I guess Lucy McBath has four options now.

1) A run for governor. Feasible, she'd have a chance.
2) Run in Bourdeaux's seat. Not ideal to have a primary there but possible.
3) Move to David Scott's seat. Probably works best if he retires but a primary could be doable.
4) Stubbornly stay in her own seat, accept the highly likely loss to presumably Karen Handel but keep trying to flip voters and make it as close as possible.

Handel is basically a perennial at this point

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Is McBath the first black congressperson ever drawn out outside of court ordered such as Cleo fields? I guess Butterfield but that isn't really a full drawn out.

Well the obvious answer is the redeemers period when states like South Carolina drew districts trying to dilute black voting power when violence proved not enough. A more recent case is Hansen Clarke was drawn into a seat with Gary Peters in Michigan 2013.

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Is McBath the first black congressperson ever drawn out outside of court ordered such as Cleo fields? I guess Butterfield but that isn't really a full drawn out.

Well the obvious answer is the redeemers period when states like South Carolina drew districts trying to dilute black voting power when violence proved not enough. A more recent case is Hansen Clarke was drawn into a seat with Gary Peters in Michigan 2013.

True I forgot about post reconstruction. Hansen Clarke is interesting I guess although I am pretty sure that was a major upset?

Not sure, Peters did have longer rootes in what became Clarke’s distirct. Clarke’s constituency got split between Peters and Conyers

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Mirror, mirror on the all, why oh why on Ifromnj’s planet is there a VRA case after all?  Granted, the water does taste funny in NJ, so perhaps it is in the water.

Yea, I think a lot of people assume that since McBath is black and in the south she’s in a minority majority seat, when in actually Bordeaux is in a bigger minority seat. Black people do actually win in non-majority white seats these days (Neguese, Delgado, Underwood, Ellison etc.)

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The above poster, Mr. Leecannon, is on to something. Middle to upper middle class white (Asians too, whatever) Democrats (of which there are a substantial number) in the prosperous suburbs of Atlanta have no problems whatsoever voting for a black in either Dem primaries or the General election. Provided that a seat (e.g. and i.e. GA-07 as drawn here) is safely Dem because there are enough of such bourgeoisie white and Asian Dem professionals, Gingles does not apply at all to this particular patch of real estate, and thus the VRA has no application whatsoever. The fact that blacks are very thin on the ground but nevertheless elected a black in the existing GA-06 with similar demographics is dispositive evidence that racists are equally thin on the ground in the area. Case closed. It's time to move on. Any VRA case that is filed here should be not only dismissed but found to be vexatious and  sanctioned, with the lawyers subject to discipline.

Imagine how hardcore Democrats could gerrymander Georgia in 2031 with this in mind.

It is 100% fact that the VRA is actually a hindrance to extreme democrat gerrymanders.  Without it democrats (if they controlled the state) could draw 3 seats they could win in South Carolina. With it the most is two, and only one of them safe.

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No VRA argument in the north end of metro Atlanta, but that was never the area there was any question about. The VRA case would be in the much poorer southern end of the metro.

The above poster, Mr. Leecannon, is on to something. Middle to upper middle class white (Asians too, whatever) Democrats (of which there are a substantial number) in the prosperous suburbs of Atlanta have no problems whatsoever voting for a black in either Dem primaries or the General election. Provided that a seat (e.g. and i.e. GA-07 as drawn here) is safely Dem because there are enough of such bourgeoisie white and Asian Dem professionals, Gingles does not apply at all to this particular patch of real estate, and thus the VRA has no application whatsoever. The fact that blacks are very thin on the ground but nevertheless elected a black in the existing GA-06 with similar demographics is dispositive evidence that racists are equally thin on the ground in the area. Case closed. It's time to move on. Any VRA case that is filed here should be not only dismissed but found to be vexatious and  sanctioned, with the lawyers subject to discipline.

Imagine how hardcore Democrats could gerrymander Georgia in 2031 with this in mind.

It is 100% fact that the VRA is actually a hindrance to extreme democrat gerrymanders.  Without it democrats (if they controlled the state) could draw 3 seats they could win in South Carolina. With it the most is two, and only one of them safe.

Not true; here's a (probably) VRA compliant SC map with 3 D winnable seats (though only one is safe):

Sorry should’ve been more specific. You can draw a vra compliant map with three Dems seats, but without extreme gerrymandering it’s hard to create multiple safe seats for democrats. I even have created a map that’s 4-3 dem with massive snakey precinct cutting districts. The VRA is an obstacle to extreme democratic gerrymandering. But it also prevents democratic shut outs in Louisiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina

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So I was messing around with a georgia map and I accidently created a Warnock/Perdue district... which if you had asked me I would have said was impossible but here it is. It kinda looks like Massachusettes



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c36d260e-2014-4d4e-a1ac-bed333fa201f