Era of the New Majority

[Tayya]

German federal election, 2017

Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU coalition heads into the elections confident of another majority, campaigning on Germany's stable (yet mediocre) economy and her confident leadership after twelve years in power. The opposition SPD, which has spent the past four years part of her government, has little to run on her against as they were in the Cabinet. The Alternative for Germany, a Eurosceptic right-wing party, has lost much of its steam since its founding and the Left has taken a chunk out of the SPD's natural base along with the Greens.

In the election, Merkel's CDU/CSU wins 44% of the vote, the SPD takes only 20%, the Left takes 14%, the Greens take 11% and the AfD takes 9%. The FDP once again fails to enter the Bundestag, this time only managing 2% of the vote. The CDU/CSU has won its first outright, albeit narrow, majority in the Bundestag since the Kohl era - the election is Merkel's greatest triumph yet.

Your timeline is great, but a little nitpick: the numbers add up to 100%, forgetting the usual German share for "other parties" of a few %, and the CDU/CSU's 44% is smaller than SPD+Grüne+Linke's 45%.

[Tayya]

German federal election, 2017

Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU coalition heads into the elections confident of another majority, campaigning on Germany's stable (yet mediocre) economy and her confident leadership after twelve years in power. The opposition SPD, which has spent the past four years part of her government, has little to run on her against as they were in the Cabinet. The Alternative for Germany, a Eurosceptic right-wing party, has lost much of its steam since its founding and the Left has taken a chunk out of the SPD's natural base along with the Greens.

In the election, Merkel's CDU/CSU wins 44% of the vote, the SPD takes only 20%, the Left takes 14%, the Greens take 11% and the AfD takes 9%. The FDP once again fails to enter the Bundestag, this time only managing 2% of the vote. The CDU/CSU has won its first outright, albeit narrow, majority in the Bundestag since the Kohl era - the election is Merkel's greatest triumph yet.

Your timeline is great, but a little nitpick: the numbers add up to 100%, forgetting the usual German share for "other parties" of a few %, and the CDU/CSU's 44% is smaller than SPD+Grüne+Linke's 45%.

But didn't Merkel nearly get a majority of seats in 2013 with only 41% of the vote? It looks like she was only four or five seats shy of an absolute, no-coalition government.

Yeah, but that was with neither the FDP nor the AFD reaching the Bundestag threshold.

[Tayya]

German federal election, 2017

Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU coalition heads into the elections confident of another majority, campaigning on Germany's stable (yet mediocre) economy and her confident leadership after twelve years in power. The opposition SPD, which has spent the past four years part of her government, has little to run on her against as they were in the Cabinet. The Alternative for Germany, a Eurosceptic right-wing party, has lost much of its steam since its founding and the Left has taken a chunk out of the SPD's natural base along with the Greens.

In the election, Merkel's CDU/CSU wins 44% of the vote, the SPD takes only 20%, the Left takes 14%, the Greens take 11% and the AfD takes 9%. The FDP once again fails to enter the Bundestag, this time only managing 2% of the vote. The CDU/CSU has won its first outright, albeit narrow, majority in the Bundestag since the Kohl era - the election is Merkel's greatest triumph yet.

Your timeline is great, but a little nitpick: the numbers add up to 100%, forgetting the usual German share for "other parties" of a few %, and the CDU/CSU's 44% is smaller than SPD+Grüne+Linke's 45%.

But didn't Merkel nearly get a majority of seats in 2013 with only 41% of the vote? It looks like she was only four or five seats shy of an absolute, no-coalition government.

Yeah, but that was with neither the FDP nor the AFD reaching the Bundestag threshold.

Ah, of course. I didn't think of that, though I thought it was wild that FDP lost 93 seats outright. What #'s would the CDU/CSU need for an outright majority with AFD entering the Bundestag?

Depends on the numbers for the SPD, Greens, Left and AfD, it's hard but barely doable with AfD in the Bundestag though you need a collapse of the SPD vote, presuming Linke and Greens stay in double digits. 18-10-10-5 or 16-12-10-5 are numbers we have to look at. Those might be too implausible, though.

[Tayya]

German federal election, 2017

Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU coalition heads into the elections confident of another majority, campaigning on Germany's stable (yet mediocre) economy and her confident leadership after twelve years in power. The opposition SPD, which has spent the past four years part of her government, has little to run on her against as they were in the Cabinet. The Alternative for Germany, a Eurosceptic right-wing party, has lost much of its steam since its founding and the Left has taken a chunk out of the SPD's natural base along with the Greens.

In the election, Merkel's CDU/CSU wins 44% of the vote, the SPD takes only 20%, the Left takes 14%, the Greens take 11% and the AfD takes 9%. The FDP once again fails to enter the Bundestag, this time only managing 2% of the vote. The CDU/CSU has won its first outright, albeit narrow, majority in the Bundestag since the Kohl era - the election is Merkel's greatest triumph yet.

Your timeline is great, but a little nitpick: the numbers add up to 100%, forgetting the usual German share for "other parties" of a few %, and the CDU/CSU's 44% is smaller than SPD+Grüne+Linke's 45%.

But didn't Merkel nearly get a majority of seats in 2013 with only 41% of the vote? It looks like she was only four or five seats shy of an absolute, no-coalition government.

Yeah, but that was with neither the FDP nor the AFD reaching the Bundestag threshold.

Ah, of course. I didn't think of that, though I thought it was wild that FDP lost 93 seats outright. What #'s would the CDU/CSU need for an outright majority with AFD entering the Bundestag?

Depends on the numbers for the SPD, Greens, Left and AfD, it's hard but barely doable with AfD in the Bundestag though you need a collapse of the SPD vote, presuming Linke and Greens stay in double digits. 18-10-10-5 or 16-12-10-5 are numbers we have to look at. Those might be too implausible, though.

What about 20-11-8-5?

Your timeline.

[Tayya]

Looking forward eagerly to the midterms coverage. Your attention to detail is mesmerizing. Do you know how the Swedish elections went?

[Tayya]

One little thing that does irk me about the remaps is a few of the new numberings that don't follow the historical ones. For example, Illinois's 1st District has been Chicago-centered since the Civil War. Suddenly becoming the 15th District just seems... wrong. Most of them are fine, the numbers do change around a bit, but the Illinois and Minnesota numbers do bug me.

The rest is very nice as always!

[Tayya]

FemDems? Lawl.

That's a cruel number of tight gains in NY.