TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[OneJ]

Statement from Joaquín Castro:

Interesting. He’s no Beto, but I don’t think Castro is a potential candidate to completely overlook.

[OneJ]

Eh Idk about Castro tbh. I’d rather have Hegar.

Agreed.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1106654605172244481

Joaquin Castro to enter the Senate race soon, sources say.

I've always thought that a combo of Castro running for Senate (either, but Joaquin is the stronger candidate) & Beto also on the ballot- Texas really does become dead even.  Castro will naturally increase Latino turnout to some degree.  And Trump & Cornyn have much lower approval ratings than Cruz (which is shocking for most ppl outside of Texas). 

So if you start at Beto's 3% loss.  Add a bump in Latino turnout, factor in Trump & Cornyn being less popular than Cruz (& Abbott who was also on the ballot in 2018)- and add a small bump if Beto in the nom/ for being the home state candidate...

This could be the year Texas finally falls. The Texas quinnipiac poll from a couple of weeks ago had Beto:46 ... Trump:47 (and I would imagine Castro vs Cornyn is pretty much the same).

You forgot that 2020 will easily be 3-5 points more Republican than 2018, so even with tour parameters, that is a 3-5 Cornyn/Trump victory, but I feel you are being way too generous to Democrats, it seems like a competitve state, but i doubt it actually flips, I see it being like NC/FL for a while and then going the way of VA, but these changes won’t happen overnight

I think Lean R is appropriate for this race

Sure 2020 will likely not be as Democratic as 2018 for the country as a whole, but certain states like Texas, Arizona, and Georgia could still swing towards the Democrats because swing is obviously not uniform everywhere in the country. Maybe not enough to actually flip the states (especially Georgia and Texas), but enough to actually make Republicans sweat.

[OneJ]

Until further notice, Hegar has my endorsement. 

[OneJ]

The reason Beto lost was because he failed to increase Hispanic turnout to the same level as he did among other voters. That is why Castro was the best candidate.

Assuming Castro would've been able to replicate Beto's performance in every other demographic.

Yep, that’s a big if which is part of the reason I think Hegar is likely better than Castro.

[OneJ]

The reason Beto lost was because he failed to increase Hispanic turnout to the same level as he did among other voters. That is why Castro was the best candidate.

Assuming Castro would've been able to replicate Beto's performance in every other demographic.

Yep, that’s a big if which is part of the reason I think Hegar is likely better than Castro.

WHy would Hegar replicate it?

I mean the main reason is that she already did well in TX-31 last year. It’s not guaranteed, but it won’t hurt to actually try.

[OneJ]

Cornyn is undefeated in overall elections since 1984: Primary, Runoff & General elections.

And Nelson was undefeated from 1972 to... you know what happened.

[OneJ]

Cornyn is undefeated in overall elections since 1984: Primary, Runoff & General elections.

And Nelson was undefeated from 1972 to... you know what happened.

Not true. Nelson lost the 1990 Democratic primary for governor.

Ah, my mistake. But even then my point remains that something can continue happening until it doesn’t happen anymore.

[OneJ]

To end over a month of silence on this thread:

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1280519154227974145

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1280556860672815104

[OneJ]

So neither Cornyn nor Hegar are raising huge amounts of money especially for a race and state like this.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1293958852510208002

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1321448311736422402