If Dems lose the Senate in 2014, will they win it back in 2016? (user search)
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  If Dems lose the Senate in 2014, will they win it back in 2016? (search mode)
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Question: If Dems lose the Senate in 2014, will they win it back in 2016?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 89

Author Topic: If Dems lose the Senate in 2014, will they win it back in 2016?  (Read 2987 times)
SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
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Posts: 13,346
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P P P
« on: April 15, 2014, 08:16:45 PM »

Almost guaranteed
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SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
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*****
Posts: 13,346
United States


P P P
« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2014, 04:37:55 PM »

Yes, I mean, Johnson and Kirk are up, that could win back the Senate if the Republicans get 51-49 in 2014, not to mention Rubio, who could run for President, and if he does, West is probably the most likely to get Nominated, and he would lose if Schultz or someone else entered, and there's a possibility of Paul's seat being more contested if he runs as well, Chandler could run.

Here's a best case Scenario in 2016 (For the Dems [for me at least])



Democratic Net gain of +9

Ron Johnson is defeated by Russ Feingold
Roy Blunt is defeated by Jay Nixon
Dan Coats is defeated by Evan Bayh
Kelly Ayotte/Charles Bass is defeated by Carol Shea Porter
Mark Kirk is defeated by Lisa Madigan/Tammy Duckworth
Pat Toomey is defeated by Joe Sestak
John Boozman* is defeated by Mike Beebe
Richard Burr is defeated by Clay Aiken/Bev Perdue/G. K. Butterfield
Marco Rubio/Allen West is defeated by Debbie Wasserman Schultz

The Dems best case scenario involves losing Ohio?
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SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
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Posts: 13,346
United States


P P P
« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2014, 04:52:46 PM »

Yes, I mean, Johnson and Kirk are up, that could win back the Senate if the Republicans get 51-49 in 2014, not to mention Rubio, who could run for President, and if he does, West is probably the most likely to get Nominated, and he would lose if Schultz or someone else entered, and there's a possibility of Paul's seat being more contested if he runs as well, Chandler could run.

Here's a best case Scenario in 2016 (For the Dems [for me at least])



Democratic Net gain of +9

Ron Johnson is defeated by Russ Feingold
Roy Blunt is defeated by Jay Nixon
Dan Coats is defeated by Evan Bayh
Kelly Ayotte/Charles Bass is defeated by Carol Shea Porter
Mark Kirk is defeated by Lisa Madigan/Tammy Duckworth
Pat Toomey is defeated by Joe Sestak
John Boozman* is defeated by Mike Beebe
Richard Burr is defeated by Clay Aiken/Bev Perdue/G. K. Butterfield
Marco Rubio/Allen West is defeated by Debbie Wasserman Schultz

The Dems best case scenario involves losing Ohio?
Portman is fairly popular,
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/in-ohio-hillary-clinton-lead-shows-frustration-with-gop.html#more
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Yeah, if only he did something to piss off the tea party, like endorsing gay marriage or something
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SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
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*****
Posts: 13,346
United States


P P P
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2014, 07:58:00 PM »

Don't rule out the possibility of an open Arizona seat flipping if its Hillary against a mediocre GOP candidate. Obviously WI, IL, PA will be Dems top targets while FL, NC, OH, NH could be flipped as well.
Given John McCain's approval ratings, I'd say Democrats odds of picking up Arizona would go down if he retired
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