I have a hard time seeing him killing his Senatorial career in the crib by being the vote that kept Harry Reid as the majority leader. Maybe if he's already ruled out running for re-election. I think he'd personally prefer to caucus with the Dems, but in this scenario I think he'll try to paint himself as the Murkowsky from Kansas.
To be fair, it'll probably be nearly impossible for him to get reelected even if he caucuses with the Republicans. A random Republican congresscritter will come barreling out of the R primary and knock him out by being more conservative, yet not insane like a Brownback/Buck/Angle type.
Agreed, I don't think he has a chance in a GOP primary, even if he caucus with Republicans. Unless he'd somehow become a conservative hero, but that's just implausible and would be too weird for him.
As the saying goes, Kansas is a three parties state. So I think his best (only?) chance of being re-elected is by running for the party in the middle. Caucus with Republicans, build a very centrist and moderate voting record and run again as an Independent with an electoral base of moderate Republicans and syphoning votes from Democrats who want to stop that conservative GOP nominee from winning. A bleak path but likely better than any of the alternatives.
Then again, maybe he'll just see re-election as too much trouble, go with his instincts and hope for the best (a position on a Democrat Administration/embassy?).
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