Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[wbrocks67]

For all the talk about young voters and black voters, this has young voters 71-29 and black voters 86-14 for Ds lol

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1721573198561505376

[wbrocks67]

Dems should have the upper hand, you'd think, also thanks to this:

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1721600627472544156

[wbrocks67]

Tribbett may be a Dem operative but he's been messy in the past. He was infamously messy during the Northam race when he said Dems were doing well in the morning, then they were crashing in the midday, only to come back and then say that everything was fine in the afternoon. I won't say he's wrong or right, but his track record is meh.

Chaz reaffirming it though gives it much more weight.

[wbrocks67]

I'm curious to see the results because Youngkin's messaging has been disingenuous at best. My inclination is that someone trying to pull the whole "I'm just trying to bring everyone together on common ground - but that common ground is still banning abortion at a much more lower weeks # than currently stands in VA" doesn't sound convincing at all, and I'm not sure why anyone would trust the GOP legislature to even only stop at that, given what GOP trifectas are doing in other states. We'll see if the average voter sees through it.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1721675111621603686?s=46

Can someone explain to me why this is a bad thing? Wouldn't regular voters (like old people) be the ones most likely to vote early in any case?

Early voters are always a good thing, because a banked vote is of course better than an ED vote which is more unreliable.

I think what he's saying though is that Dems have pulled more infrequent voters to be early voters, which I guess is half the point of trying to do it (bank your reliable voters but also bank some infrequent ones who may not go out on ED) while the GOP has really only banked their regular voters and now has to rely on more infrequent voters coming out on election day.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1721675111621603686?s=46

Can someone explain to me why this is a bad thing? Wouldn't regular voters (like old people) be the ones most likely to vote early in any case?

Early voters are always a good thing, because a banked vote is of course better than an ED vote which is more unreliable.

I think what he's saying though is that Dems have pulled more infrequent voters to be early voters, which I guess is half the point of trying to do it (bank your reliable voters but also bank some infrequent ones who may not go out on ED) while the GOP has really only banked their regular voters and now has to rely on more infrequent voters coming out on election day.

The entire point of early voting is to remove the excuse and risk of “forgetting to vote”.

Right, which is why I think his point is that a main driver of early voting is to get the more infrequent voter, because they're more likely to then forget on election day or get caught up and not be able to. So I think what he's saying is that the GOP didn't focus on that, they just tried to get their voters out who were going to go on election day/vote for sure anyway.

[wbrocks67]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

In fact the night was not so good for the dems: if biden does the same result, he loses the election.

I'm getting tired of reading this.

*Democrats flip a chamber* -> "Here's why that's bad news for democrats"

Down ballot races aren't always good proxies for national races. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot and Biden winning the state by double digits wasn't a normal occurrence.

The absolute outcome in Virginia is good for Democrats; the only thing really at stake was whether Dems would get a majority in each chamber and in the end they won both.

However, they still have a lot of room for improvement; they lost a ton of Biden + 5-10 seats due to factors like being outspent and low black turnout which were at least somewhat in the state party's control.

It's the same way in Mississippi, from an absolute standpoint the only thing that mattered was Reeves won the Governorship, but his relatively weak performance suggests Rs in the state have work to do.

Its an off-year election, it's not realistic to expect presidential qualities to all align for this.

[wbrocks67]

Literally why would anyone give a DailyWire article the time of day is beyond me.

[wbrocks67]

So basically no chance she closes the gap?

That OP seems to be missing the "+ additional mail-ins" aspect too, but who knows how much there are.

Aren't same-day regs not being counted until today?

[wbrocks67]

So many unfortunate close losses for Dems. The GOP is lucky, this was almost a catastrophic situation for them moreso than just a bad one.

[wbrocks67]

Ds were closer to a blowout than Rs were to a majority:

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1724252709883183540

[wbrocks67]

Recount is over in VA, Pope Adams (D) lost by only 53 votes

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1737518657561887041