Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[wbrocks67]

The pundit class appears to be living in a completely different Virginia reality than everyone else.

It appears the only articles they can write about Virginia are literally "Critical race theory in the suburbs~~!!!!"

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1423310410954981380

[wbrocks67]

I mean, was it really off to a great start in the first place?

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1425102154705031178

[wbrocks67]

I have no idea how Northam's K-12 Mask Mandate will impact the election. Will energize the GOP base but I have my doubts the Biden voters in Virginia would respond that badly to requiring masks for a population largely ineligible for vaccination.

The majority of people agree with the school mask mandates. I think that's what a lot of people are missing, despite the few kooks that are coming to school board meetings.

[wbrocks67]

While I still expect him to win narrowly, it's interesting that McAuliffe hasn't been able to put this away.

It's a Biden term off year election. He was never going to put him away. Also, there were many takes of how Northam couldn't "put Gillepsie away"... until he did

[wbrocks67]

Just saw a new Youngkin ad, he absolutely demolished McAuliffe on the premature Afghanistan withdrawal.  Race is over.  Pro-interventionist NOVA is going to deliver for its hometown hero Glenn Youngkin and Matty will be hailed as an amazing political prognosticator for years to come.

But anyways, on Earth 1, the amount of spending Youngkin must be doing is insane.  He's on every channel on prime time on DC stations, meaning it's probably being blasted to NOVA/DC/and parts of Maryland.  He actually seems to be trying to cut into the NOVA margins.  Which, to be fair, is the right strategy.   He can't win unless he gets the Dem margin down 10 points in Fairfax.  Downstate vote isn't going to cut it.  He's been very cautious to look like a Trumpy politician but not say one word that offends liberals.  But at the end of the day he's unlikable and bland and this is a waste of time and money.

is McAuliffe gonna start airing ads or?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1430974061316804621

[wbrocks67]

Can someone tell Trumpkin that there never were COVID *lockdowns* in Virginia? Or anywhere else for that matter?

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1432387907785007120

[wbrocks67]

I feel a lot of people are underestimating youngkin. Don't forget that in 2013/2014, Cucinelli and Gillespie were doing worse in the polls than youngkin is now.

Also, as someone who's politically schizophrenic, I think Youngkin winning might be a good thing. Up until the end of July my big worry was minority rule. While I still want Thomas and Alito to go to ADX Florence - I feel the public health tyranny is the biggest problem in this country. This stuff can't go on forever. And if youngkin promises to get rid of all these mandates/restrictions - then good for him.

yes, god forbid they are trying to keep people safe and not sick! how terrible!

[wbrocks67]

Trumpkin at it again

https://twitter.com/MichaelRWarren/status/1433170864116277248

[wbrocks67]

Is he trying to lose?

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1433187809368723456

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth poll had high rates of approval for vaccine mandates, mask mandates, masking in schools, etc., so.... not great for Youngkin.

[wbrocks67]

Trumpkin's campaign has truly been awful.

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1436698805127290886

[wbrocks67]

Ah, yes, Ben Tribbett, noted objective observer of VA politics since the early 2000s.

Who posted it has no relevance on the content.

[wbrocks67]

Hotline Josh at it again.

This analysis isn't even factually correct, given that Morning Consult just had a poll out this week that has 6 in 10 adults agreeing with Biden's new vaccine mandates.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1438109088970264580

[wbrocks67]

T-Mac better be using that audio in ads, STAT

[wbrocks67]

There were 14,000 in person votes Friday/Sat

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

[wbrocks67]

9/16:
In-Person: 5
Mail: 251

9/17:
In-Person: 13,506
Mail: 403

9/18:
In-Person: 851
Mail: 11

Is there not in-person voting on weekends?

[wbrocks67]

The truth is that Youngkin could  win and this will be within 5 or 6 points either way maximum. This is the only major race the GOP has a shot at this year so expect them to fight hard for it.

Larry Elder had a 50-50 shot and Jack Ciattarelli has a non-zero chance as well.

Emphasis on this word. That is not the case anymore.

And while I'll agree with you on Ciatarelli, technically, it's still barely 5% at best.

My blurb about Larry Elder aged well lol. Still, I am thinking that Phil Murphy will only win by 8% due to a backlash against his COVID policies among Jews, Catholics, and African American and Hispanic non essential business owners in Newark, Trenton, Elizabeth, Paterson, and Camden. Additionally, Glenn Trumpkin seems to be gaining quite a bit of ground lately due to the fact that the Republicans are likely going to get a pretty big dead cat bounce in NOVA.

I don't mean to derail this thread with NJ stuff, but where is the concrete evidence of this? NJ has actually been doing very well with COVID since last year when Murphy took restrictions, and seems most people in the state are supportive of the measures he's taken, especially given COVID being under control in the state and things still being able to be open.

[wbrocks67]

T-Mac better be putting that college audio in ads ASAP.

[wbrocks67]

As of 9/21
In-person early votes: 26,473
Mail votes: 3,226

For reference, the final total in 2017 was
In-person early votes: 118,124
Mail votes: 77,510

[wbrocks67]

As of 9/21
In-person early votes: 26,473
Mail votes: 3,226

For reference, the final total in 2017 was
In-person early votes: 118,124
Mail votes: 77,510

not particularly huge, though I don't expect it to be.

Do we know where these early votes are coming from?  That would be much more telling.

New Data as of today:

35,979 early in person votes
5,234 voted by mail
= 41,213 total early votes

VA-01: 5,198 (4,660 IEP/538 mail)
VA-02: 3,820 (3,187 IEP/633 mail)
VA-03: 2,198 (2,103 IEP/95 mail)
VA-04: 4,464 (4,018 IEP/446 mail)
VA-05: 4,048 (3,556 IEP/492 mail)
VA-06: 4,612 (3,566 IEP/1,046 mail)
VA-07: 4,822 (4,192 IEP/630 mail)
VA-08: 2,689 (2,631 IEP/58 mail)
VA-09: 3,326 (2,352 IEP/974 mail)
VA-10: 3,634 (3,476 IEP/158 mail)
VA-11: 2,402 (2,238 IEP/164 mail)

[wbrocks67]

Naturally, RCP couldn't wait to put the Youngkin +5 poll in their average.

[wbrocks67]

538 has a poll average tracker so we can ignore RCP:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia/

[wbrocks67]

What should we expect? Everyone wants the horse race. They wanted it with CA and they want it with this. Love the notion of a simultaneous Newsom landslide in CA but also the "national environment souring for Dems".

Not to mention the public polling is showing a "close ish" race in the sense that there hasn't been a ton of high quality polling, but it's still all generally been McAuliffe +3-5, with some outliers on both sides.

Not to mention the polling average in 2017 was literally Northam +3. This is feeling like that race all over again.

[wbrocks67]

What should we expect? Everyone wants the horse race. They wanted it with CA and they want it with this. Love the notion of a simultaneous Newsom landslide in CA but also the "national environment souring for Dems".

Not to mention the public polling is showing a "close ish" race in the sense that there hasn't been a ton of high quality polling, but it's still all generally been McAuliffe +3-5, with some outliers on both sides.

Not to mention the polling average in 2017 was literally Northam +3. This is feeling like that race all over again.

In 2017, Northam had the boost from an unpopular Trump in the White House.  Now the shoe is on the other foot.

A bit much is being made of Biden's "bad environment for Dems". Trump was very disliked in the fall of 2017 with a national approval of like -20, let alone in a state Trump lost.

Biden is about -3/-4 nationally in a state he won. It's not the same at all.