Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Gass3268]

With the new JMC poll, I'm switching my prediction to Vitter.

50.5 Vitter
49.5 Edwards

Hopefully I'm wrong and I'm over compensating for what happened in Kentucky, but it looks like Vitter is getting the necessary swing from white voters that he needs to win. Hopefully Edwards banked enough votes in the early period to overcome the swing.

[Gass3268]

With the new JMC poll, I'm switching my prediction to Vitter.

50.5 Vitter
49.5 Edwards

Hopefully I'm wrong and I'm over compensating for what happened in Kentucky, but it looks like Vitter is getting the necessary swing from white voters that he needs to win. Hopefully Edwards banked enough votes in the early period to overcome the swing.

Except that that RRH poll had Vitter winning the early votes.

That polls seemed off.

Here is a link to the RRH poll, in case it was not put it. The most interesting thing is that of the close to half of the voters who have already voted, Vitter leads 48% to 44% over Edwards. The poll has those who have not yet voted, but likely to vote, going 52% to 36% for Edwards. That strikes me as a rather amazing discrepancy.

They way oversampled early voters.

21% of the primary electorate voted early, which was the highest early vote share in any recent statewide election.

Hmmm. That seems like a major flaw doesn't it?

[Gass3268]

Orleans starting to come in now.

Still a lot of East Baton Rouge left too.