Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here is a link to the RRH poll, in case it was not put it. The most interesting thing is that of the close to half of the voters who have already voted, Vitter leads 48% to 44% over Edwards. The poll has those who have not yet voted, but likely to vote, going 52% to 36% for Edwards. That strikes me as a rather amazing discrepancy.

How can there be 8% undecided among early voters? These people already made their decision. This just makes the poll look like complete junk.

[Ebsy]

Here is a link to the RRH poll, in case it was not put it. The most interesting thing is that of the close to half of the voters who have already voted, Vitter leads 48% to 44% over Edwards. The poll has those who have not yet voted, but likely to vote, going 52% to 36% for Edwards. That strikes me as a rather amazing discrepancy.

How can there be 8% undecided among early voters? These people already made their decision. This just makes the poll look like complete junk.

By golly, you're right.

Trash it.

[Torie]

Here is a link to the RRH poll, in case it was not put it. The most interesting thing is that of the close to half of the voters who have already voted, Vitter leads 48% to 44% over Edwards. The poll has those who have not yet voted, but likely to vote, going 52% to 36% for Edwards. That strikes me as a rather amazing discrepancy.

How can there be 8% undecided among early voters? These people already made their decision. This just makes the poll look like complete junk.

Oh there is chit chat on the discussion board about that. Respondents pressed the wrong button and the like, as they responded to the automated calls.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here is a link to the RRH poll, in case it was not put it. The most interesting thing is that of the close to half of the voters who have already voted, Vitter leads 48% to 44% over Edwards. The poll has those who have not yet voted, but likely to vote, going 52% to 36% for Edwards. That strikes me as a rather amazing discrepancy.

How can there be 8% undecided among early voters? These people already made their decision. This just makes the poll look like complete junk.

Oh there is chit chat on the discussion board about that. Respondents pressed the wrong button and the like, as they responded to the automated calls.

The pollster should adapt for this by asking people if they already voted before the horserace questions, and then have the automated call prohibit such people from responding 'undecided' to any horserace question. Or, manually go through the responses after the calls are made and completely throw out any 'undecided early vote' participant.

Leaving the illogical responses in there just makes the poll worse.

[Del Tachi]

Prediction:
John Bel Edwards (D) - 52,9%  ✔
David Vitter (R) - 47,1%

[Miles]

Here is a link to the RRH poll, in case it was not put it. The most interesting thing is that of the close to half of the voters who have already voted, Vitter leads 48% to 44% over Edwards. The poll has those who have not yet voted, but likely to vote, going 52% to 36% for Edwards. That strikes me as a rather amazing discrepancy.

They way oversampled early voters.

21% of the primary electorate voted early, which was the highest early vote share in any recent statewide election.

[Torie]

Here is a link to the RRH poll, in case it was not put it. The most interesting thing is that of the close to half of the voters who have already voted, Vitter leads 48% to 44% over Edwards. The poll has those who have not yet voted, but likely to vote, going 52% to 36% for Edwards. That strikes me as a rather amazing discrepancy.

They way oversampled early voters.

21% of the primary electorate voted early, which was the highest early vote share in any recent statewide election.

Hmmm. That seems like a major flaw doesn't it?

[ElectionsGuy]

I tried to imagine a county map for this and this is what I came up with



Then I realized, this is very similar to Landrieu's 52-46 win in 2008. It looks like Louisiana is reverting back to when a sizable number of whites voted Democratic (30-40%). I tried to work out a reasonable scenario:

Whites (65%): 65% Vitter, 35% Edwards
Blacks (30%): 95% Edwards, 5% Vitter
Other (5%): 65% Edwards, 35% Vitter

Equates to 54.5% Edwards, 45.5% Vitter. Edwards needs just 28% of the white vote to win, more if black turnout isn't as good.

I don't have Edwards winning Ouachita, but I do have him winning Rapides, Allen, Jeff Davis and Ascension

I don't think Cajun country will just unanimously swing back to him. Ouachita you're probably right on as Miles has told me, but the rest of them were >65% Romney and Cassidy. Don't think its happening.

[Miles]

What the final stretch of the ad wars is looking like:

Vitter, as you'd expect, is going for the lowest common denominator. He has an ad attacking Obama/Edwards on Syrian refugees which uses footage of the Paris attacks.

Edwards has a direct-to-camera ad hitting back.

Finally, the anti-Vitter GumboPAC hits Vitter on his spying.

[ElectionsGuy]

What the final stretch of the ad wars is looking like:

Vitter, as you'd expect, is going for the lowest common denominator. He has an ad attacking Obama/Edwards on Syrian refugees which uses footage of the Paris attacks.

Edwards has a direct-to-camera ad hitting back.

Finally, the anti-Vitter GumboPAC hits Vitter on his spying.

Say what you will about Vitter, but that seems like an effective ad. It is LCD, lobbying for votes based on fear, but that will tip the undecideds heavily in Vitter's favor, I think.

[Maxwell]

Not a fan of the positioning, but once again, I appreciate that Edwards fights back.

[Asian Nazi]

Not really sure if it's their bigotry or their appearance, but damn I can't remember the last time there was an election between two uglier candidates.

[Maxwell]

David Vitter looks and talks like a Simpsons Character.

[Miles]

This evening Vitter, made a speech on Syrian refugees to an empty chamber.

He probably would be getting more attention for this back home if it wasn't for the Jindal news. 'Looks like Jindal is still screwing up Vitter's plans.

[Zache]

Not really sure if it's their bigotry or their appearance, but damn I can't remember the last time there was an election between two uglier candidates.

JBE looks like an iguana and Vitter has beady eyes and a weird chin-neck thing.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Has Louisiana certified the results of the primary yet?

[Miles]

It wasn't nearly the spectacle that the Governor debates were but the LG candidates had a debate tonight. As the main focus of the LG is promoting tourism, the issues were more esoteric and less partisan, with the candidates generally agreeing on several things.

[smoltchanov]

Not a fan of the positioning, but once again, I appreciate that Edwards fights back.

You have to give and take when you're a Democrat running in an R+10 state.  And it goes both ways.  You don't see Baker or Hogan opposing Obama on everything, but surely they are preferable for R's over Coakley and Brown.  Same principle here.  You don't win opposition +10 areas running on your national agenda.

+100. Always had a sort of algorithm (and principle at the same time): "Democrats must run the most liberal candidate able to win (district or state), but in some distiricts and states that can mean not only moderate, but outright conservative candidates (who still almost always will be less conservative then Republican ones), Republicans - vice versa (including moderate or outright liberals in some districts and states)"

So JBE is absolutely fine to me in Louisiana. And even more conservative Democrat (like Kathleen Blanco) would be fine to me there too. Absolutely different - in Vermont or Hawaii))))

[Tender Branson]

Edwards gets 39% of Whites in the RRH poll, which is roughly 2x what Obama and Landrieu got.

Edwards should be safe with anywhere above 33%, if Blacks make up 28-30% of the electorate.

But the terrorism card that Vitter plays now could make it closer than it appears. But I'm sticking with my 55-45 Edwards prediction for now.

[smoltchanov]

I still stick with my 51-52 - 48-49 prediction. But will be happy to err and "underestimate Edwards".....

[Adam Griffin]

It was already going to be really close when factoring in the terrible situation of polls over-estimating Democrat support as of late and the notorious instance of practically every Southern undecided voter breaking for the Republican at the end of the day, but I think this has now cost Edwards the election.

People really underestimate the amount to which bigoted white Southerners loved to be wooed with dog-whistling politics. This particular issue just so happens to combine them all (racism, xenophobia, religious bigotry, etc). Rubes in Louisiana are just orgasming everywhere right now, now that they've been given in their eyes a concrete reason to oppose Edwards.

[windjammer]

It was already going to be really close when factoring in the terrible situation of polls over-estimating Democrat support as of late and the notorious instance of practically every Southern undecided voter breaking for the Republican at the end of the day, but I think this has now cost Edwards the election.

People really underestimate the amount to which bigoted white Southerners loved to be wooed with dog-whistling politics. This particular issue just so happens to combine them all (racism, xenophobia, religious bigotry, etc). Rubes in Louisiana are just orgasming everywhere right now, now that they've been given in their eyes a concrete reason to oppose Edwards.

^^^^^^

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It was already going to be really close when factoring in the terrible situation of polls over-estimating Democrat support as of late and the notorious instance of practically every Southern undecided voter breaking for the Republican at the end of the day, but I think this has now cost Edwards the election.

People really underestimate the amount to which bigoted white Southerners loved to be wooed with dog-whistling politics. This particular issue just so happens to combine them all (racism, xenophobia, religious bigotry, etc). Rubes in Louisiana are just orgasming everywhere right now, now that they've been given in their eyes a concrete reason to oppose Edwards.

ROFL

[Miles]

GumboPAC hits Vitter on Syria.

[Miles]

Edwards gets endorsements from almost 30 Jefferson Parish officials, from both parties. This is Vitter's home parish.