South Africa 2009

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That's a big underestimate on the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), too, I would imagine. The split in the ANC will benefit them somewhat, and they should get close to 10%. Plus there are a bunch of small parties which will manage at least 5% total.

Did the UDM merge with the COPE? They seem like two variants of the same party.

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Anyone know if we will get any results tonight?

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Early reports with around 1000 votes has the ANC ahead in all but two provinces, Western Cape and Northern Cape where the DA leads.

did DA win both in 2004? or whenever the last election was.

The DA didn't win any provinces in 2004, but Western Cape is its strongest province while Northern Cape is also a strong area for the DA. With the ANC-COPE split, the DA will probably win Western Cape in the end.

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ANC 54.11
DA 26.69
COPE 8.57
ID 3.12
VF+ 2.04 (!)
IFP 1.75

The New National Party vote had to go somewhere, and it certainly wasn't going to go to the ANC. Obviously the VF+ numbers will drop as more areas in the east come in.

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On second examination so few results are in that it is hard to judge anything. That said if the turnout reports on the DA website are right they should have a decent night.

Yeah, according to the IEC, this is like 3k votes or something in all. It's very little.

Most of it from EC and WC Provinces.

Which should massively overstate the DA, since WC is its strongest province.

... while Eastern Cape is not at all a strong province for the DA.

And the DA is at 55% in WC right now while they took 27% there in 2004. So clearly they've improved their position substantially. I would expect the DA to win around 20%, maybe a bit more, in the end.

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Well, fingers crossed that the DA/ID government in Western Cape will show South Africa why voting mindlessly for the ANC is a bad idea.

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Map of the result by municipality. Dark is a majority, light is a non-majority plurality. Colors should be obvious (green=ANC, blue=DA, red=IFP).



Anyone know what the DA-majority municipality in Northern Cape is and what was going on there?

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Time will be the way South Africa will change. There is no denial that despite Zuma's reputation for corruption, the ANC is still a great party to rule South Africa and it can now be kept in check by its lack of a supermajority. I won't be surprised if some other MPs defect and join the ANC giving it the supermajority, but at least they can't have absolute power.

Based on this election it looks like a truly conservative party exists in SA. This fascinates me. Liberal Africa is wonderful! But of course the people are not that liberal and one day the opposition will emerge, and it will be some sort of social conservative group, sadly.

Conservatives? You might want to read about the DA before you say stupid things. They're a genuine liberal party in any American sense, far more so than the ANC. (The DA supported the same-sex marriage legalization ruling, for one, which the ANC opposed; can't think of anything else specific right now.)

The ANC is just corruption through and through. Its truly decent members are mostly politically marginalized because they don't "pay the dues". There's this weird romanticism for the party outside of South Africa; at least it's understandable from within, but try to actually learn what scumbags run the party now rather than praising it for its past. (And also look at what the other parties' leaders did; DA leader Helen Zille was one of the most prominent white anti-apartheid activists in South Africa, and without pressure from people like her the apartheid regime would never have caved.)

Hell, the former apartheid people are members of the ANC now. The New National Party merged with the ANC. The party is all about powermongering, not doing good.

Unless you meant COPE, which is just a flash-in-the-pan splinter group of corrupt politicians.