Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alcon]

Watch the news for something gay marriage-y on Monday

Don't be so mysterious. Just tell us.

I told you all I know   I just assume it's the official announcement.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Linville might actually win.  Wow!  


The Sheriff's race down here was somewhat painful, yet entertaining to watch at the same time.  Basically the incumbant's opposition group had a facebook page where they would cut-and-paste pictures of Bill Elfo's head into silly pictures, than go on a rant about how he's some kind of "fachizt, fear mongering pig!!1!1" or something.     lololol  It's scary to think people are dumb enough to do that kind of crap. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Anyways, here's the mayoral race for Bellingham by precinct/voting district.  Green is for Pike, red is for Linville, and yellow means it's tied. 




BTW this race is still too close to call. 

[bgwah]

That's a pretty map! So perfectly polarized.

I doubt Pike will win.

[LastVoter]

Both of them are democrats right?

[bgwah]

Yes. Linville is more moderate, though.

[LastVoter]

Yes. Linville is more moderate, though.

I was scared for a second that one of them was Republican, I wasn't sure if Bellingham was as liberal as Seattle. Btw does anybody know why does Franklin County not vote more left with majority-minority since 2010 census?
Looks like they updated I-1125 maps, and Spokane voted no by a slight margin. Columbia and Adams also flipped. I think Spokane will vote for Obama by 55% or more in 2012.

[Jackson]

Very low turnout among Hispanics.

[Seattle]

Yes. Linville is more moderate, though.

I think Spokane will vote for Obama by 55% or more in 2012.

The only way I see that happening is if the Republican nominee is Bachmann, or another rightwing candidate. Romney has a very high chance of winning Spokane county.

[RI]

Yes. Linville is more moderate, though.

I think Spokane will vote for Obama by 55% or more in 2012.

The only way I see that happening is if the Republican nominee is Bachmann, or another rightwing candidate. Romney has a very high chance of winning Spokane county.

Winning Spokane and winning Spokane County are two very different things. Spokane usually votes for the Democrats (though not like Seattle does...more like Everett does) and has some very Democratic areas, but the suburbs (Spokane Valley and eastward), outskirts, and rural areas of the county vote Republican in larger numbers and usually drown it out. I think Cheney is the only other area in the county that leans Dem, but it's too small to really matter.

[Seattle]

Oh I know, I thought he was talking about Spokane county. What percentage did Spokane vote for Obama in 2008.

[RI]

Oh I know, I thought he was talking about Spokane county. What percentage did Spokane vote for Obama in 2008.

2008 Spokane County Breakdown:
Spokane City: 55.87%-40.98% Obama (D +13,904)
Cheney: 56.79%-39.93% Obama (D +560)
Millwood: 50.97%-44.73% Obama (D +58)

Unincorporated Spokane County: 57.30%-39.84% McCain (R +12,948)
Spokane Valley: 51.73%-44.81% McCain (R +2,798)
Liberty Lake: 59.26%-38.31% McCain (R +725)
Deer Park: 57.88%-38.46% McCain (R +297)
Medical Lake: 49.74%-46.33% McCain (R +66)
Airway Heights: 51.06%-45.49% McCain (R +58)
Rockford: 60.36%-37.84% McCain (R +50)
Fairfield: 54.72%-43.02% McCain (R +31)
Waverly: 72.41%-24.14% McCain (R +28)
Latah: 58.59%-32.32% McCain (R +26)
Spangle: 54.73%-39.19% McCain (R +23)

[LastVoter]

49.5 (R) vs 48.1 (D) in 2008.

[Alcon]

49.5 (R) vs 48.1 (D) in 2008.

Not an unusually big swing, though.  It looks to me much more like a reversion to normal patterns after an especially bad year for Democrats in the county (2004.)  Also, Spokane County is relatively downscale and low-education (look at the throttling domestic partnerships got in 2009) and that's not the kind of demographic Obama is holding up well with.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Here's a easy-to-use precinct map for Spokane that I made from Dave's redistricting app, in case anyone wants to use it.    I'm going to work on the mayoral map after all the votes are counted fyi. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Here's the 2011 Spokane moyoral election by precinct/voting district.





There are about 5,000 votes yet to be counted in Spokane county, but I decided to just go with it and make the map already.  I'll edit it later.  

[bgwah]

That's quite the turnaround from the primary. What caused Vernon to collapse?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

That's quite the turnaround from the primary. What caused Vernon to collapse?

I haven't read up on that yet, maybe Alcon or realistic know something. 

[RI]

That's quite the turnaround from the primary. What caused Vernon to collapse?

I haven't read up on that yet, maybe Alcon or realistic know something.  

From what I've heard, it has to do with the Otto Zehm case. Apparently a lot of people think Verner didn't handle the case well, and some think she even tried to cover up what the police did in killing him. The cop was just convicted about a week before the election, and the publicity over it didn't do Verner any favors. I'm not 100% sure of all the details, but that's what I've heard from the locals. I do also know that Spokane has a habit of not reelecting mayors. According to my election geek professor, they haven't reelected one since the 1970s.

[CultureKing]

That's quite the turnaround from the primary. What caused Vernon to collapse?

I haven't read up on that yet, maybe Alcon or realistic know something.  

From what I've heard, it has to do with the Otto Zehm case. Apparently a lot of people think Verner didn't handle the case well, and some think she even tried to cover up what the police did in killing him. The cop was just convicted about a week before the election, and the publicity over it didn't do Verner any favors. I'm not 100% sure of all the details, but that's what I've heard from the locals. I do also know that Spokane has a habit of not reelecting mayors. According to my election geek professor, they haven't reelected one since the 1970s.

Also it should be added that there was another killing of a citizen by a cop a year or two ago, which just made the current situation even worse. Finally there was some sort of charges over water..... I don't remember what exactly because I didn't pay much attention to the tv commercials and such (I am still vote out of Olympia)

[Meeker]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2016784360_reardon17m.html

Good thing the election was last week!

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2016784360_reardon17m.html

Good thing the election was last week!

We still have Constantine to take down McKenna!

[greenforest32]

What's the likelihood the Washington AG/SOS positions are won by Democrats in 2012?

The less of a bench they get, the better.

[Meeker]

I think we have a slight edge in both; AG more than SoS.

[greenforest32]

What's up with Inslee supporting the balanced budget amendment on Friday?

The 2/3 supermajority wasn't reached thus the amendment failed and 25 Democrats (mostly Blue Dogs) voted for it: http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2011/roll858.xml

Why is Inslee among those 25?

I was surprised to see Defazio vote yes as well: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/68413.html