Washington state megathread

[CultureKing]

Why do you guys think 1163 will fail? I wouldn't be surprised to see it get something like 59-41 yes, maybe even a lot higher for yes.

I think this is simply the wrong year for that specific initiative. Anything that smacks of taking revenues from the state or increasing taxes just doesn't seem to have that much appeal at the moment, honestly I voted against it even though I would probably have gone with the yes camp if state coffers weren't so terrifyingly low.

[Meeker]

I think Eyman will fail and SEIU and Costco will pass narrowly (less than 10% margin).

[Alcon]

Based on the polling (internal and otherwise) it's hard for me to see I-1163 failing, although those newspaper endorsements were nasty.

Here are my guesstimates:

I-1125: 50.5% No
I-1163: 58.7% Yes
I-1183: 52.5% Yes

Edit: Publicola thinks similarly to us, for the most part.

[bgwah]

Liquor is easily passing. I guess I win that one since I predicted the highest yes percent.

[bgwah]

Local races:

Hague winning 54-46... Disappointing, but I had a feeling this might happen.

Reardon easily winning 57-43. I thought he would win but the margin is surprising!

In Bellevue, both pro-transit incumbents are winning re-election to the city council by two-to-one margins. It's a close battle for the open seat (about 100 vote margin).

Jean Godden has defeated Forch 54-46. The rest of the incumbents are above 60%, with Burgess over 80% (!).

Looks like Toby Nixon found his way onto the Kirkland City Council now... Slowly crawling his way back up the elected office ladder...

[Seattle]

Seattle car tabe failed pretty badly.

Looks like I-1183 surpassed everyone's expectations....again. 66% of the vote. wow.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I just removed my prediction since it was so embarrassing.  lol

[CultureKing]

I do not understand why areas are voting for and against the eyeman initiative... Adams county is more or less tied right now while Clark is almost 60% in favor. Also wtf Garfield?

Any theories?

[RI]

I do not understand why areas are voting for and against the eyeman initiative... Adams county is more or less tied right now while Clark is almost 60% in favor. Also wtf Garfield?

Any theories?

Southwestern WA (Clark, Cowlitz, Skamania area) seems to be generally rather anti-tax/pro-Eyman relative to what you'd think on initatives. I have no idea about Garfield other than perhaps WSU influence?

[bgwah]

Whitman County tends to be rather pro-tax and anti-Eyman. Just look at past initiatives and you'll frequently find Whitman in the Top 5 pro-tax counties. And yes, it's almost certainly because the county is very dependent on a state institution. Once we get precinct results perhaps I can give a better answer. I'm not sure about Garfield County. It has odd voting patterns on initiatives.

As for Clark, the projects this would have effected most are the floating bridges over Lake Washington and the Columbia River crossing from Vancouver to Portland. Perhaps commuters in Clark County don't like the idea of variable tolling.

[bgwah]

Doug Ericksen lost the race for Whatcom County Executive. Hah hah! Looks likes the ultra-liberal areas of Bellingham united with right-wing Lynden to elect Jack Louws. It would be a funny map, maybe... (hint hint, Realistic! though Louws won most precincts anyway, it looks like)

Linville is also leading Pike 51-49 for Mayor of Bellingham.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Doug Ericksen lost the race for Whatcom County Executive. Hah hah! Looks likes the ultra-liberal areas of Bellingham united with right-wing Lynden to elect Jack Louws.

Guilty as charged!    I'm not surprised, everyone down here hates Erickson. 

[LastVoter]

Well the good guys won on I-1125. Garfield county is surprising. I think the only explanation I have is under 1000 turnout and the fact that surrounding counties broke 45/55 so maybe it's just an oddball because of the turnout. Spokane county disappointed me, I thought it would vote no and move into solid D area soon. My home county(Benton) voted over 40% for no, not as embarrassing as it usually is. I am surprised that this vote was less partisan than it should have been.

[bgwah]

What makes you think Spokane County will become "solid D" soon? I haven't gotten that impression at all.

[LastVoter]

What makes you think Spokane County will become "solid D" soon? I haven't gotten that impression at all.

It's too big to be Republican.

[Alcon]

What makes you think Spokane County will become "solid D" soon? I haven't gotten that impression at all.

It's too big to be Republican.

Eh, it's a pretty suburban area, the growth is in the most Republican areas, and its voters tend to have low education rates.  None of this screams "upcoming D trend" to me.

Spokane has a very limited core of truly liberal areas.  Pretty much just south of downtown (Cliff-Cannon/Manito Park/Browns Addition)

[RI]

(hint hint, Realistic! though Louws won most precincts anyway, it looks like)

[bgwah]

Haha, wonderful.

[Seattle]

lol. So weird to see Lynden voting with Bellingham.....

[greenforest32]

I didn't expect that type of margin of victory for the liquor privatization initiative. I was thinking more along a 3-5% win. I won't be surprised if a similar proposal comes down here in Oregon though our liquor laws aren't identical.

Also it looks like gay marriage won't be on our 2012 ballot D:

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/11/basic_rights_oregon_will_not_p.html

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I wonder how this issue will play out in Washington in 2012.

Here's to hoping at least marijuana legalization initiatives make both state ballots.

[bgwah]

Oh, not on the ballot in Oregon! You made me sad for a second there...

[Alcon]

That's kind of troubling for WA if they're basing that on internal polling instead of that ridiculous crap (internet poll?)

[Alcon]

Watch the news for something gay marriage-y on Monday

[bgwah]

Watch the news for something gay marriage-y on Monday

Don't be so mysterious. Just tell us.

[Meeker]

Alcon and I are getting married.