International COVID-19 Megathread

[Lechasseur]

How bad do you think the coming recession due to this virus will be?

[Lechasseur]

I think most governments will try to adapt their strategies to the changing circumstances, as well it's obvious that nobody wants a prolonged state of emergency. However, experts say it's not realistic to expect there's a vaccine before next year. Also, they say contingency measures are necessary to save thousands of lives. So, who knows. I don't expect this crisis is over before summer, but I wish the quarantine has been lifted by then. Ojalá

The head of the German Robert Koch Institute has just said that the implemented restrictions for the public life could "in an extreme scenario" last two years.

Obviously, this would in practice probably not be sustainable IMO or otherwise it could cause a literal revolution (or unless elections aren't suspended a political party which promises a lifting of the restrictions could outright win). The longer this draws out the more support the "ust let the old farts just die" movement would probably gain traction. More than two months of this and there's gonna be blood in the streets.

It isn't remotely sustainable for more than a very limited period of time, yes. I suspect governments will move towards a stop-go approach. If the sounds of progress on treatments (not even thinking of a vaccine here) bear rapid fruit, then the 'stop' part would become progressively less onerous, I guess. But even that would be difficult.

Exactly

[Lechasseur]

In the Belgian news they're talking about the lockdowns lasting between 2 and 6 months

[Lechasseur]

In the Belgian news they're talking about the lockdowns lasting between 2 and 6 months

Unsustainable, but I think you mean social distancing.

Well here's the article in French, it does use the term "confinement" which would translate to lockdown, and not "social distancing"

https://www.lalibre.be/planete/sante/le-comportement-des-belges-sera-determinant-face-au-coronavirus-cela-peut-durer-six-mois-s-ils-ne-respectent-pas-les-regles-5e707fca9978e201d8bf13bb

[Lechasseur]

This will be far worse than 2008/09 ...

Yeah

[Lechasseur]

China's recovery is FAKE NEWS

https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-fake-whistleblowers-191300391.html

[Lechasseur]

Yesterday evening I had a videoconference with two friends who live in Buenos Aires. They were at a coterie meeting with other people, the last before confinement. I told them about my last week living in quarantine. I believe Argentina is the first country in Latin America to join our club

Peru has been under quarantine since March 16 and their's is even more restrictive

How so?

[Lechasseur]

I keep wondering how many people will die in result of inadequate medical help due to resources and people focusing on the virus. Regrettably, I think it'll be more than actual coronavirus deaths.

Same

[Lechasseur]

https://amp.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/coronavirus-une-plainte-contre-edouard-philippe-et-agnes-buzyn-a-ete-deposee-20200321

A criminal complaint has been filed by a group of doctors and other healthcare professionals against Prime Minister Edouard Philippe and former Minister of Health and current LREM nominee for Paris City Hall Agnès Buzyn for "mensonge d'État", "lies by the state" in English, due to their handling of the coronavirus pandemic (basically by hiding how serious it was and not doing anything about it until it was already basically too late).

[Lechasseur]

https://www.20minutes.fr/politique/2745571-20200322-coronavirus-vague-previent-emmanuel-macron-journal-dimanche

The French minister of health estimates that the true number of infected people is somewhere between 30 000 and 90 000 in France, but most of these people either don't have symptoms or have very light ones so they haven't been tested.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.lalibre.be/debats/opinions/depuis-hong-kong-je-suis-ahurie-d-entendre-les-autorites-continuer-d-affirmer-que-le-masque-ne-sert-a-presque-rien-5e7728699978e201d8c94b71?fbclid=IwAR3r-0aYUvny7C1cJKyP7r4twLnhMpJiPqBjS-69ZIbVFmqpDnU-0SJlzYs

Very interesting. This article is a must read imo. You should all Google Translate it.

According to this French journalist in Hong Kong, Asia managed to contain the virus NOT THROUGH LOCKDOWN but THROUGH WEARING MASKS.

[Lechasseur]

According to this French journalist in Hong Kong, Asia managed to contain the virus NOT THROUGH LOCKDOWN but THROUGH WEARING MASKS.

Yeah, I heard one before (plus, extremely thorough tracking of early infections based on the experiences they had gained from the previous SARS and Swin flu epidemics).

Problem is, there is a huge face-mask gap between Asia and Europe/America.

Yeah we have a severe shortage. The question is how to get more?

[Lechasseur]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

Agreed

[Lechasseur]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

In 3-4 weeks, govts all over the world will have to reassess the situation. Sooner or later, restrictions must be lifted for the sake of the economy alone. Not to mention other problems in society that come from permanent lockdowns. Otherwise, there will be bankruptcies en masse and skyrocketing unemployment. I still have some hope by looking at South Korea as some sort of model, but we should be prepared for the worst. I'm afraid the numbers of infected people will start climbing again once we return the normalcy. This is probably the worst societal crisis of our lifetimes that causes an unimaginable moral dilemma. I'm afraid in a few weeks we as a society and the politicians will have to decide whether continue to go down an economic super-cliff with disastrous consequences, worse than the 2009 recession, or we try to isolate only seniors and chronically ill and try to get some mass immunity among healthy people under the age of ~60-65.

The major problem as we speak is a complete lack of immunity across the board against this new virus. And there are just 2 ways to achieve that mass immunity: Vaccine or recovered people. Since vaccine won't be available for at least 9 months (maybe 12-14 months, and the vulnerable people need to be "locked up" for that amount of time), we might actually to go with the latter. Not because we like it, but because the alternative is so horrendous.

This

[Lechasseur]

A lockdown of 3 to 4 weeks will buy us time to develop treatments (not necessarily a vaccine) that will save lives.

Yes exactly, along with making more tests.

There's no way the lockdown can last until a vaccine is made.

[Lechasseur]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

To be fair, Greece and Spain weathered 25%+ unemployment for several years, so it would not be the end of the world. My very own corner of Spain saw unemployment rates as high as 35% (Q3 2013). Of course, there are a bunch of cultural and economic differences that explain why unemployment in Spain or Greece is way higher than the rest of the EU, but still; if unemployment ""only"" rises to 25% it will actually be a lesser concern compared to other areas of the economy.

Which other areas of the economy are you thinking of?

[Lechasseur]

The Scientific Council has advised the French government that the lockdown here has to last at least 6 weeks.

It's purely advisory, but the government will most likely take its advice.

[Lechasseur]

365 people died of the virus in France today, including a 16 year old girl.

[Lechasseur]

Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has announced that the lockdown in France will be extended until at least April 15th.

[Lechasseur]

299 people died in France today, while 969 people died in Italy today.

Oh and in the Ile-de-France we're supposed to run out of ICU spaces this weekend...

The epidemic's peak is expected within the next 8 days.

[Lechasseur]

I was reading in the French news that the lockdowns in Italy could potentially last until July 31st

[Lechasseur]

The epidemic's peak is expected within the next 8 days.

Based on what information?

Look, i don't know.

That's just what I saw in the news.

[Lechasseur]

Now in the UK they're talking about a 6 month lockdown...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52084517

[Lechasseur]

Now in the UK they're talking about a 6 month lockdown...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52084517

Lmao, that's practically impossible.

Today I read an interview on a major German newsite in which an expert said the same thing I do for a while: The lockdowns only postphone the larger problem. Even if numbers go down as a result, as soon as everything is reopened, it starts all over again. Our strategy should merely be to buy some time for figuring out how we can pass the next nine to twelve months before a vaccine is available and that will stop the pandemic through enough immunity.

I absolutely agree

[Lechasseur]

http://www.leparisien.fr/politique/coronavirus-le-gouvernement-envisage-un-deconfinement-regionalise-01-04-2020-8292291.php

The French government plans on coming up with a strategy in the coming weeks to let people out of confinement progressively, depending on testing, the number of people still in intensive care, the region they live in, their age and other criteria yet to be determined in all likelihood.