Which 2021 election will be the most transformative/important?

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Define this any way you want. Important on an international scale, or with the potential to cause the most change/upheaval in that country. For the latter, I am thinking Chile or Israel depending on how the vote goes.

[jaichind]

You should add Japan to this list. Japan is schedule to have a Lower House election in 2021

[Antonio the Sixth]

Definitely Chile. Israel could have been a contender, but if the past is any indication, it will probably be inconclusive and they'll be back to the polls in 6 months.

[Former President tack50]

Germany easily, as it is likely to be the first election where the SPD doesn't come in either first or second.

[seb_pard]

I might be Chilean, but I think definitely Chile. The country will decide everything, from mayors to convention members. Honestly, the presidential election will not be as crucial as before, but the mix of different elections will deeply impact our society. Being one of the first countries that Neoliberal (as the ones supported by the Chicago School of Economics) policies means that our elections will have more than a national impact, but a regional one (or more).

[Mike88]

In Portugal there will be local elections on September/October that will determine the future of the 2 main parties: if the PSD wins, Costa is toast and it will be the beginning of the end for him; if the PS wins, Rio will be booted out from the leadership, and who knows who would succeed him. (the ghost of Passos Coelho is still upon the party)

But I voted for Germany. The departure of Merkel after 16 years in power will be huge and the changes in the EU leadership will be severe.

[brucejoel99]

But I voted for Germany. The departure of Merkel after 16 years in power will be huge and the changes in the EU leadership will be severe.

I voted the same way. Even if she's replaced by an ideological copycat like Laschet (which is no guarantee given Söder's existence), losing her presence on the European & world stages will just be an enormous change in & of itself.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

For Mike and Jaichind I have added Japan and Portugal.

[Tender Branson]

The Upper Austrian state election will be important because it’s a bellwether state.

[Velasco]

Germany: end of Merkel era
Chile: constituent process
Jsrael: Netanyahu could fall

As for sub-national elections Catalonia is far more important than Upper Austria, I believe

[Tender Branson]

Germany: end of Merkel era
Chile: constituent process
Jsrael: Netanyahu could fall

As for sub-national elections Catalonia is far more important than Upper Austria, I believe

Ehh, who really cares about Catalonia when you have Upper Austria coming up ?

[Velasco]

Ehh, who really cares about Catalonia when you have Upper Austria coming up ?

I voted for Chile anyway

[Tender Branson]

Ehh, who really cares about Catalonia when you have Upper Austria coming up ?

I voted for Chile anyway

It was more meant as a joke comment ...

Catalonia is of course more important than Upper Austria, but I would vote Germany being the most important next year.

Who cares about Chile ? Except the South Americans ...

[Former President tack50]

To be fair I kind of expect Chile to be underwhelming for some reason.  Germany is also very likely to be underwhelming as the end result is easily going to be another grand coalition (to the extent that the term means anything at all as of now), with the Greens replacing the SPD. And if the 2 don't get a majority I am sure the SPD will think "hey, I know how we could go even further down" and suicide yet again by propping up the CDU.

Only difference is that Merkel will regrettably not be chancellor anymore (who would have told 2013 me that I'd end up missing Merkel!)

The most open ended election is certainly Chile followed by the Netherlands.

[CumbrianLefty]

How exactly is any Russian "election" next year going to be "transformative"?

[Samof94]

Ehh, who really cares about Catalonia when you have Upper Austria coming up ?

I voted for Chile anyway

I also voted for them as their political system is changing rapidly.

[kaoras]

Transformative inside the country is Chile and is not particularly close.
More important in general it would be Germany (but I don't think much is going to change in practice)

Who cares about Chile ? Except the South Americans ...

More people than the ones who care about Austria , apparently. Your politics have been boring as hell since Kurz arrived.

[Tender Branson]

Transformative inside the country is Chile and is not particularly close.
More important in general it would be Germany (but I don't think much is going to change in practice)

Who cares about Chile ? Except the South Americans ...

More people than the ones who care about Austria , apparently. Your politics have been boring as hell since Kurz arrived.

He's still very popular with older voters in the countryside. Because this will go on for a while (by "a while", I mean a few years), yes our politics will remain boring because the ÖVP will remain above 35% and far ahead of anyone else. On the other hand, boring politics is usually good because there's no chaos.

[Velasco]

How exactly is any Russian "election" next year going to be "transformative"?

"Performative" suits better election type events

Who cares about Chile ? Except the South Americans ...

I'm not South American, but Chile seems to be a nice country with nice folks. Why not caring a bit? Given that I'm from a region of Spain with strong cultural and historical links with Latin America, it's normal that I'm a bit interested in those countries  The US folks are their northern neighbours and some Europeans are apparently interested and sympathetic.

 in the end everybody loves Chile, isn't it great?

[Battista Minola 1616]

How exactly is any Russian "election" next year going to be "transformative"?

Either they are going to cook the books yuuugely more than last time (I'm not buying that), or polls will magically "correct" themselves during next year (I can buy that), or United Russia will see a loss in vote share well into the double digits and post their worst result since 2003 - if not ever.

But even if the third thing happens nothing will change, you will say. Well I don't think anything will change in Germany or Israel (two of the three most voted options so far) either.

I actually voted Russia, in any case, because sometimes I still need to be a contrarian.

[Red Velvet]

Ehh, who really cares about Catalonia when you have Upper Austria coming up ?

I voted for Chile anyway

Who cares about Chile ? Except the South Americans ...

Who cares about Austria? Except the Europeans (and even then, not all)...

Chile recent political history is way more interesting than all these places. Germany won’t have Merkel but it won’t significantly change the country’s soul or its standing.

1. Chile
2. Germany
3. Israel (behind Germany only because I think Netanyahu will keep power. Besides, it’s not like elections in Israel are something special these days.)

[Hnv1]

Germany by virtue of its sheer size and importance with the loss of the leader of the free world (Mutti)

[Pick Up the Phone]

Re Germany, What will make much more of a difference internationally than the position of Chancellor themselves, will be whether the Greens become part of the Government.

I think that's pretty much a given at this point. There is no other realistic coalition option.

All of the potential candidates are essentially on a very similar line on Foreign Policy, Laschet is notoriously and vocally pro-Russia and China*, even moreso than Merkel, Söder is less vocal about it but policywise very similar, Bavaria is probably the State with the closest economic integration in that regard. Merz is a bit more Atlanticist, but of the old-school type (that care less about global liberal values etc and more about free trade, war on terror et al, the ones that have recently in Germany gotten very negative about the US), and he is also very attentive to German Industry.

What do you mean by pro-Russia/China? No doubt that the CDU seeks to protect the economic interests of German companies but this is hardly a sufficient criterion for such a strong label. By contrast, there is an influential anti-Russia bloc within the CDU, mainly consisting of Ulf Poschardt types who like to talk about 'Western values' and 'European solidarity with Ukraine'. I don't think that 'pro-Russia/China'/'Atlanticist' are helpful categories to describe the likes of Laschet and Söder. Both are pragmatists who will always listen to the opinion of their party (and the advice of their pollsters).  

 The only one who would be a major Change would be Röttgen, but his Chances of becoming Chancellor are very low, and it is very likely that if elected CDU chair he would would make place for Söder to run in the election, which seems to be the Assumption most of his supporters are operating under too (using Röttgen as a proxy vote for Söder).

Indeed, the chances of Röttgen becoming CDU party leader are already very low. The chances of him becoming Chancellor are basically non-existent.

If the Greens join the Government however things will likely Change (which is the reason (alongside Bidens election) why Merkel is trying to push through things like the EU-China Investment treaty and Nordstream II as soon as possible.

Not too sure of that. I don't see any major policy shift on the horizon, at least not if one of the usual suspects (Baerbock, Özdemir...) becomes FM. The priorities of the GRÜNEN for the 2021-2025 period lie elsewhere and they have already shown that they are both capable and willing to adapt to the status quo when in power.

 German politics in very interesting in this regard because foreign policy leanings do not correspond with typical left-right leanings at all, as is typical among Anglos. The CDU/CSU are not Ideologues, but the political vehicle of economic interest, German Industries Interests are very clear, as such it has the most pro-China/Russia policy of all parties (aside perhaps die Linke, but especially on the former even that's iffy). The SPD has more of a hybrid function, but the Interests of the employees associations/unions predominate, in this case aligned with their Employers of course, as such it takes a similar approach, though with lesser intensity. There are some parts of the "socially progressive" wing with concerns about "Uighurs" "Forced Labour" et al.

The Greens (and the FDP, though less relevant) on the other hand have the most anti-China/Russia view for the opposite reasons, to the point that they are Ironically (considering where they started), not rethorically, but effectively, probably the most Atlanticist party in Germany (AFD foreign policy is incoherent and amounts to half the party just spouting whatever Trump happens to say on the matter, while others are caught literally taking chinese government bribes and then defending Huawei and China's Xinjiang policy).

Yes and No. It is definitely true that the conventional left-right scheme doesn't work when it comes to German foreign policy positions. But it is also true that no party seems to care too much about foreign policy in the first place. It is probably the most overrated policy area by quite a bit, with CDU, SPD, FDP and GRÜNE having slightly different preferences but generally sharing a policy consensus. After all, hardly anyone in Germany is really interested in Chinese labor camps and paying lip service in order to satisfy a bunch of activists within the party should not be confused with seriously proposing to break up this consensus. Even the LINKE knows that most of its controversial foreign policy positions (leaving NATO, banning German arms exports etc.) are little more than a formal concession to some ultra-pacifists (BAG FIP) and the first thing they have to get rid of in future RRG coalition talks...

If the Greens do join the Government, it is also highly likely they will get the Foreign Ministry (a portfolio the CDU has never cared much for, not since the sixties have they held it), and us such Germany will go more in line with the sort of "summit of democracies" type approach of Western Europe Nato+ East Asian Democracies Unity that Biden wants. If it's another Grand coalition, then staying close to China and more European strategic autonomy along Macrons lines (though likely without the integration to accompany it).

Mhm, I agree that the GRÜNEN will likely get the FM and that the CDU won't care too much about it (traditionally, the two most important positions in the German cabinet are Minister of Finance/Minister of the Interior). I am more cautious regarding your prognosis. In the end, the FM has little autonomy when it comes to the big picture of foreign affairs; the Chancellor has the Richtlinienkompetenz and I doubt that Chancellor Söder/Laschet will let the GRÜNEN decide in which direction Germany should move.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Chile is the only interesting one.

[Former President tack50]

Re Germany, What will make much more of a difference internationally than the position of Chancellor themselves, will be whether the Greens become part of the Government.

I think that's pretty much a given at this point. There is no other realistic coalition option.

While current polling is tainted by a sudden surge from the CDU because of covid presumably; it does allow for a continuation from the CDU-SPD grand coalition.

And if 2017 taught me anything is that you should never underestimate how suicidal the SPD is (at this point I almost feel they genuinely deserve to fall below the 5% threshold, they are a completely useless party)