French presidential election, 2022

[Walmart_shopper]

The turnout drop seems fairly consistent--it doesn't seem to be particularly beneficial or detrimental for any one candidate. Many of the 2017 Macron departments are down; many of the 2017 LePen departments are seeing a turnout dip (some by a lot). Two of the the three mainland departments (Dordogne and Ariège) that Melanchon won in 2017 are actually in good shape in terms of turnout, but I wouldn't read too much into that just yet.

I still think the gap between the top three candidates will be surprisingly narrow, and I wouldn't be surprised if Melanchon manages to leapfrog LePen for #2. Maybe something like Macron 24% Melanchon 22% LePen 21%.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I still think the gap between the top three candidates will be surprisingly narrow, and I wouldn't be surprised if Melanchon manages to leapfrog LePen for #2. Maybe something like Macron 24% Melanchon 22% LePen 21%.

A hypothetical Macron vs Melachon Run-off would make Atlas(and other political forums online) very interesting.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I would tactically support for Melenchon in first round, but Roussel & Poutou are good candidates too. There's a lot to say about Melenchon, but economical issues are most important to me and Macron would be a suicidal support for me.

[Red Velvet]

Very par for the course to see so many "leftists" bowing down at the altar of nightmarish neoliberal orthodoxy (as they almost always do, in all Western countries) to vote for Macron

The left is dead, but ESPECIALLY in western countries.

What you have is a bunch of liberal people thinking they’re socialists even though they always fall in line with the mainstream thinking, as if current world and media was dominated by socialism lmao. Zero critical thinking or meaningful dissent by these people, they care more about likes on social media and stuff like that.

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513115084591095814?s=20&t=eNyci1I70...
Apparently S-S-D turnout is down 10%, which should be both a symbol of the Left's disunity and the fact that Melenchon isn't a good replacement.

Lower turnout sounds good for Le Pen, I think? The 2017 voter - 2022 non-voter sounds like someone who was energized to defeat fascism five years ago and nowadays simply doesn’t care.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513115084591095814?s=20&t=eNyci1I70...
Apparently S-S-D turnout is down 10%, which should be both a symbol of the Left's disunity and the fact that Melenchon isn't a good replacement.

Lower turnout sounds good for Le Pen, I think? The 2017 voter - 2022 non-voter sounds like someone who was energized to defeat fascism five years ago and nowadays simply doesn’t care.

There was lower turnout than expected in the regional election and it was mainly the RN who did worst than the polls, so, usually, low turnout would be bad for her, actually. In general, low turnout means the youth didn't vote.

[Mike88]

At 5pm, turnout stands at 65%, a drop of 4.4% compared with 2017.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

FULL RESULTS MARTINIQUE 2022

JL MELENCHON 53.1%
LE PEN 16.3
MACRON 13.4

2017

[Mike88]

Turnout projections:

Ipsos is projecting a 73.5% turnout rate.
Ifop is projecting turnout at 76%.

[jaichind]

Looks like a Mélenchon surge in the overseas vote assuming the data posted on Twitter are accurate

[Mike88]

Live coverage of LCI:

Live coverage of Franceinfo:

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Compared to 2017



Macron down 17, JLM up by 32, Le Pen up by 5

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Results from overseas territories are often erroneous and technically illegal to share under french law at this time.

[Zinneke]

That won't stop us Belgians and Swiss from giving wild predictions based on circulating rumours, pissing off the know it alls.


But already amusing watching the Mélenchon fanboys cream themselves over good results in the islands. 51% in Guyana is impressive but turnout is shocking there. I still won't be surprised by a Mélenchon surge that falls just short but that we spinned by his minions as a stolen election and he is now the Real Opposition (TM)

[Logical]

Turnout in the banlieus is way down.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513177996827545600

[parochial boy]

I wouldn't read anything into that map at all to be honest. There's good and bad for all of the big three candidates, and that's without even having that much of a grip on what trends might emerge.

As for the DROM-COM stuff and whatever rumours we'll get in the next two hours - it's all been said already; but remember - the 20.00 estimation is not an exit poll, it's a projection based on counts of actual votes. Most polling stations close at 19.00, and even if I don't know when the first counts precisely will start, anything advertising itself as an "exist poll" is almost certainly fiction.

[Oryxslayer]

But already amusing watching the Mélenchon fanboys cream themselves over good results in the islands. 51% in Guyana is impressive but turnout is shocking there. I still won't be surprised by a Mélenchon surge that falls just short but that we spinned by his minions as a stolen election and he is now the Real Opposition (TM)

If it falls short, then they should blame themselves.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513177926509936641?s=20&t=f6f42T-m6...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513177996827545600?s=20&t=f6f42T-m6...

Map is starting to look a lot like one of where Macron did best last time and LREM in the Euros. North and south have lower overall turnout, and west + Alps + urban/suburban central regions doing good. The Lyon region is where I imagine LREM's average demographics converge most strongly, and one of the few places doing better than 2017. Meanwhile, on the Melenchon side of the spectrum, S-S-D continues to be pitiful and I wouldn't be surprised if there is stark turnout differences between the Arrondissements in Paris.

[brucejoel99]

Man, I can't wait 'til the exit polls hit & we realize that it was a Jeb! landslide all along!

[Red Velvet]

A runoff between Melenchon vs Le Pen would be so exciting. At least there would be someone for me to root for with daddy Melenchon in the runoff.

Macron out of the runoff would also be life-giving, just to see the liberals panic with the runoff.

It’s not happening but these moments before the results are the last ones we have to dream.

[Continential]

What are some good websites for the election?

[brucejoel99]

What are some good websites for the election?

I've just been following the NYT live feed, but I'm sure others can recommend others.

[lfromnj]

Very par for the course to see so many "leftists" bowing down at the altar of nightmarish neoliberal orthodoxy (as they almost always do, in all Western countries) to vote for Macron

Ik its so based to see leftists getting cucked.

[brucejoel99]

EXIT POLL: Macron & Le Pen tied at 24%, according to the Belgian press, with Mélenchon at 19%.

https://twitter.com/lalibrebe/status/1513180132055392256

[afleitch]

Taking that with an ocean of salt right now.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

When's the earliest we'll get reliable poll results?