https://davesredistricting.org/join/95fc5983-bb04-4e15-9537-cb041eb9f2f8Here's a pretty fair Ohio map with the new populations. Lack of 2016 data makes an accurate analysis impossible, but here's the numbers how I'd rate the districts.
District 1: D+4. This is a pretty fair Hamilton County district, losing some heavily GOP chunks in the east to the 2nd district. Chabot would be in trouble here, though his defeat wouldn't quite be a sure thing.
Lean DDistrict 2: R+19. This district takes in the counties surrounding Cincinatti, and is predictably very Republican. Wenstrup's from Cincy but I'm guessing he runs here and wins.
Safe RDistrict 3: R+3. This district, anchored on Dayton, also takes in Springfield, Middletown, and Fairborn. Current trends mean that this district is probably going to stay Republican (probably voted Trump by at least 5), though it could be competitive in a wave. Mike Turner would represent this district, which is slightly bluer than its previous iteration (current 10th district).
Likely RDistrict 4: R+23. This Western Ohio district is obviously Safe R, but who ultimately represents it could be interesting. Warren Davidson of Troy and Jim Jordan of Lima both reside in this district, and there aren't really any logical districts to jump to for them. The primary battle could be dramatic, though the GE certainly won't be.
Safe RDistrict 5: D+4. Unless Bob Latta carpetbags to the nearby 10th to primary Bob Gibbs or retires, this district's 2022 election would be a Representative vs. Representative between Latta (of Bowling Green) and 9th District Rep. Marcy Kaptur (of Toledo). It would definitely be a close race - Kaptur probably wins in a Trump midterm (likewise for Latta in a Biden midterm, though he'd be less favored) though Republican chances for this district probably improve as the decade goes on.
Lean D, Tossup after 2025District 6: R+17. While Steve Stivers techically lives outside of the district, he probably inherits this seat. He probably won't mind, especially as this district is significantly to the right of his old one.
Safe RDistrict 7: D+14. Gets a lot more compact and a little redder, but Joyce Beatty is safe here.
Safe DDistrict 8: EVEN. Troy Balderson gets drawn out of a significantly bluer iteration of his old district, which now includes only northern Franklin County, Delaware County, and western Licking County. Danny O'Connor could definitely make a comeback in one of Ohio's few Dem-trending districts.
Tossup, Lean D after 2025District 9: R+12. Rep. Bill Johnson is the natural pick for this Ohio River seat, but Troy Balderson gets drawn in here too, making for an interesting primary battle (should Balderson abandon his old district with unfavorable trends). Regardless,
Safe RDistrict 10: R+17. This district shifts west relative to the old 7th, but Bob Gibbs should be secure here unless Bob Latta doesn't want to face Rep. Kaptur.
Safe RDistrict 11: R+10. The new 11th district, based around Canton, is pretty safely Republican. Thing is, it's not clear who would run for this seat. Anthony Gonzalez could carpetbag here if he doesn't want to face competitive elections in the neighboring 12th, though.
Safe RDistrict 12: D+3. The Mistake by the Lake gets fixed, as Lorain County gets it's own seat (and also takes a chunk of western Cuyahoga). Gonzalez lives here, though he may not want to run here given the district's Democratic lean. Still, given Ohio trends, the GOP's going to be competitive here no matter what.
TossupDistrict 13: D+27, Cleveland, yawn, Marcia Fudge is fine.
Safe DDistrict 14: D+3. This Akron-based district, thanks to GOP rurals the district takes in for population balance (in addition to losing Youngstown), is actually very competitive. It's technically an open seat, though Tim Ryan probably carpetbags here.
Lean D with Ryan, Tossup as an open seatDistrict 15: R+1 Youngstown, and thus Tim Ryan, get drawn into this seat because population balance. Interestingly, Dave Joyce actually gets drawn into the new 13th, but he'd obviously run here (as he lives in Cuyahoga, which this district doesn't protrude into). Ryan probably goes for the 14th, but the 15th is actually a good deal to the left of Joyce's current district, and could fall in a wave.
Lean RIn conclusion, this is a 8 R, 4-5 D, and 2-3 T map, though it could go to 13-3 or 14-2 if things get really bad for the Democrats in Ohio (likewise, if Republicans fail here, it could go to 9-7 D. Geography sucks).
