Morning Consult tracker updated: Biden +9% (user search)
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  Morning Consult tracker updated: Biden +9% (search mode)
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Author Topic: Morning Consult tracker updated: Biden +9%  (Read 4955 times)
Hammy
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Posts: 11,702
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« on: October 24, 2020, 04:05:22 AM »

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

2:1 split seems more likely. There hasn't been, nor will there ever be, where 90-100% of the undecideds go one way.
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Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,702
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2020, 03:20:00 PM »

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

2:1 split seems more likely. There hasn't been, nor will there ever be, where 90-100% of the undecideds go one way.

Yeah, everywhere else but the midwest they go 50-50 pretty much.

Midwest they are not undecideds. They are shy Trump voters.

Do you have any evidence?

2014, 2016, and even 2018.

Every single election lol.

No, 2014 was "36% voter turnout"
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