Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[Kamala]

Jones also lives in Mountain Brook, I think. Or at least attends church there.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Jones also lives in Mountain Brook, I think. Or at least attends church there.

He voted there

[Adam Griffin]

Here are my initial calculations on the white vote. Thankfully, AL records registrations by race, which made my starting position more accurate than it would have been otherwise - not sure if they release voter turnout by race and county in the weeks following an election, but if so, that'll help make this projection more accurate.

These two maps show the same thing: the one on the left was the first one I made with 5-point gradients, but I decided to break it down into 1-point gradients on the right to make the differences between counties more visible (at the expense of making every county where whites were <15% D colorless)

Thank you!

Very interesting to see some of Jones' worst counties actually didn't have his worst performances with whites. Likewise, some counties he actually won gave him worse numbers with whites.

And Lee county being Jones' second best performance with whites is surprising and should worry Republicans.

'Tis a common misconception about many Deep South areas in states like AL & GA: people take one look at the heavily Republican counties (particularly those along the 35th parallel/TN state line) and assume "OMG those wretched redneck f[inks]ks" and then take a look at the counties that are narrowly won by one party or another in the southern portions of those states and assume they're relative beacons of tolerance or places where Democrats do better across the board.

In reality, the far northern counties in these states (like where I live) regularly post 25-30% for Democrats among whites (sometimes more) even in the present day, but simply have no base of minority voters to inflate vote share. Inversely, those competitive counties further south tend to have fairly evenly-divided racial demographics where virtually every black votes Democratic and every white votes Republican.

Basically the gradual reduction in white vote share for Democrats that you can see across the eastern half of the US as you move from north to south fizzles out just below the 35th parallel and the bottom drops out, giving you all of those Deep South counties where white Democratic support is in the single digits.

Case in point: Obama's share of the white vote from 2012:

[Badger]

Jones also lives in Mountain Brook, I think. Or at least attends church there.

He voted there

Those were the areas of his strongest gains from Clinton's numbers, but he clearly kicked ass and took names throughout the Birmingham suburbs, even Beyond his own neighborhood.

[ilikeverin]

Here are my initial calculations on the white vote. Thankfully, AL records registrations by race, which made my starting position more accurate than it would have been otherwise - not sure if they release voter turnout by race and county in the weeks following an election, but if so, that'll help make this projection more accurate.

These two maps show the same thing: the one on the left was the first one I made with 5-point gradients, but I decided to break it down into 1-point gradients on the right to make the differences between counties more visible (at the expense of making every county where whites were <15% D colorless)

Thank you!

Very interesting to see some of Jones' worst counties actually didn't have his worst performances with whites. Likewise, some counties he actually won gave him worse numbers with whites.

And Lee county being Jones' second best performance with whites is surprising and should worry Republicans.

College towns have been showing some interesting trends - especially college kids apparently starting to turn out more and more.

I'm really interested in the fact that white folks who live in the Black Belt are apparently more willing to vote for Democrats than those from neighboring counties.

[Adam Griffin]

College towns have been showing some interesting trends - especially college kids apparently starting to turn out more and more.

I'm really interested in the fact that white folks who live in the Black Belt are apparently more willing to vote for Democrats than those from neighboring counties.

This is a phenomenon I've observed across multiple elections in the rural Deep South. I initially considered that even small discrepancies in non-white support/turnout calcs could be having a disproportionate impact on white D projections in counties where whites are a small percentage (this definitely happens in the SW w/ Latinos). However, in the case of GA specifically, we have voter registration and turnout data by both race and county, and the trend still showed up even when maximizing black support. I ran some basic regression analysis awhile back and - to simplify - racial polarization among rural Southern whites tends to intensify substantially when blacks are between 25-55% of the population.

My amateur sociological guess is that when Southern whites aren't living alongside any meaningful number of blacks, they don't feel "threatened" politically (ergo, more willing to vote D); when they are beyond the point of being able to counter black political power, they're also more likely to vote Democratic due to a familiarity with black/Democratic local governance, and an understanding that the world isn't going to end. In between those two extremes exists an environment where the two groups can both wield political power and take it away from each other.

I will point out that 2 of the Black Belt counties in the AL projection were almost certainly being skewed by the initial concern I had in the first paragraph - both heavily-black counties (the heaviest-black 2 counties, IIRC). My calcs for Greene and Macon County suggested that 42 & 46% of whites there voted for Jones. I subsequently revised them using more detailed data.

[IceSpear]

College towns have been showing some interesting trends - especially college kids apparently starting to turn out more and more.

I'm really interested in the fact that white folks who live in the Black Belt are apparently more willing to vote for Democrats than those from neighboring counties.

This is a phenomenon I've observed across multiple elections in the rural Deep South. I initially considered that even small discrepancies in non-white support/turnout calcs could be having a disproportionate impact on white D projections in counties where whites are a small percentage (this definitely happens in the SW w/ Latinos). However, in the case of GA specifically, we have voter registration and turnout data by both race and county, and the trend still showed up even when maximizing black support. I ran some basic regression analysis awhile back and - to simplify - racial polarization among rural Southern whites tends to intensify substantially when blacks are between 25-55% of the population.

My amateur sociological guess is that when Southern whites aren't living alongside any meaningful number of blacks, they don't feel "threatened" politically (ergo, more willing to vote D); when they are beyond the point of being able to counter black political power, they're also more likely to vote Democratic due to a familiarity with black/Democratic local governance, and an understanding that the world isn't going to end. In between those two extremes exists an environment where the two groups can both wield political power and take it away from each other.

I will point out that 2 of the Black Belt counties in the AL projection were almost certainly being skewed by the initial concern I had in the first paragraph - both heavily-black counties (the heaviest-black 2 counties, IIRC). My calcs for Greene and Macon County suggested that 42 & 46% of whites there voted for Jones. I subsequently revised them using more detailed data.

That's pretty fascinating. Enough familiarity to breed contempt, but not enough to feel comfortable with. Monroe County immediately jumped out at me considering it was the closest county in the state and also had the lowest white vote for Jones.

[Landslide Lyndon]

College towns have been showing some interesting trends - especially college kids apparently starting to turn out more and more.

I'm really interested in the fact that white folks who live in the Black Belt are apparently more willing to vote for Democrats than those from neighboring counties.

This is a phenomenon I've observed across multiple elections in the rural Deep South. I initially considered that even small discrepancies in non-white support/turnout calcs could be having a disproportionate impact on white D projections in counties where whites are a small percentage (this definitely happens in the SW w/ Latinos). However, in the case of GA specifically, we have voter registration and turnout data by both race and county, and the trend still showed up even when maximizing black support. I ran some basic regression analysis awhile back and - to simplify - racial polarization among rural Southern whites tends to intensify substantially when blacks are between 25-55% of the population.

My amateur sociological guess is that when Southern whites aren't living alongside any meaningful number of blacks, they don't feel "threatened" politically (ergo, more willing to vote D); when they are beyond the point of being able to counter black political power, they're also more likely to vote Democratic due to a familiarity with black/Democratic local governance, and an understanding that the world isn't going to end. In between those two extremes exists an environment where the two groups can both wield political power and take it away from each other.

I will point out that 2 of the Black Belt counties in the AL projection were almost certainly being skewed by the initial concern I had in the first paragraph - both heavily-black counties (the heaviest-black 2 counties, IIRC). My calcs for Greene and Macon County suggested that 42 & 46% of whites there voted for Jones. I subsequently revised them using more detailed data.

That's pretty fascinating. Enough familiarity to breed contempt, but not enough to feel comfortable with. Monroe County immediately jumped out at me considering it was the closest county in the state and also had the lowest white vote for Jones.

That theory was first floated by Nate Silver during the 2008 Democratic primary. Silver observed that Obama won states which were blacks were either more than 20% of the electorate or less than 5%, but was losing states where they were in between.

[Arkansas Yankee]

During the certification process Moor will find an 11,000 transposition mistake in Jefferson county that will put him ahead.

[Sestak]

During the certification process Moor will find an 11,000 transposition mistake in Jefferson county that will put him ahead.

That does seem to be how the AL GOP swings elections...

But I'm not sure they'll do it for Moore.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Ah. But if it is a true error.

[Virginiá]

Ah. But if it is a true error.

Ah yes, 'true.' That would be some of that Alabama-style truth they are known for.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Obviously ArkansasYankee thinks that elections in the US are managed the same way as in Russia, if you catch my drift.

[UncleSam]

It would have to be a 21,000 vote error, since presumably if fake voters were bussed in their votes wouldn't count for Moore if they were discovered

Also lol@the idea this was what swing the election. I don't doubt there might be a few out of state volunteers who broke the rules to vote in place of people in Alabama, but Jones won by 20k over the child abuser. There's no fking way 'voter fraud' was even within a factor of 10 of that number, and there's also no way it had a meaningful impact on the race.

If Roy Moore wants to know who to blame to losing the most conversative state in the country, he need only look in a mirror. Even Alabama Republicans figured out he was a disgusting and crazy nut job with zero class or dignity (see: being outraged at the result and refusing to resign). When Trump looks like the mature adult in the room you know you've sunk pretty fking low.

[SingingAnalyst]

While this race has a steep age gradient, with voters under 45 voting 60-38 Jones while those 65+ voted 40-59 Moore, I noticed something in the CNN exit poll:

Those aged 30-39 voted 66-32 Jones
Those aged 25-29 voted 62-36 Jones
Those under 25 voted 59-40 Jones

Is this reverse gradient because

-voters born after 1990 or so are becoming more conservative?
-those likely to have young daughters at home (in their 30s, as opposed to 18-24) more personally disturbed by the allegations against Moore?, or
-something else?

[Sestak]

also AL has pretty f**king strict voter ID laws.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

also AL has pretty f**king strict voter ID laws.

Funny, the Moore Republicans told me that the Jones campaign got illegal voters from MS, and that's why they won.

[Virginiá]

While this race has a steep age gradient, with voters under 45 voting 60-38 Jones while those 65+ voted 40-59 Moore, I noticed something in the CNN exit poll:

Those aged 30-39 voted 66-32 Jones
Those aged 25-29 voted 62-36 Jones
Those under 25 voted 59-40 Jones

Is this reverse gradient because

-voters born after 1990 or so are becoming more conservative?
-those likely to have young daughters at home (in their 30s, as opposed to 18-24) more personally disturbed by the allegations against Moore?, or
-something else?

Maybe slightly less so in Alabama. In some states - many maybe, 18-29 year olds are more Democratic than 30-39 year olds.

Here are the eps for AL 2012: http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/

Young people are much more Democratic than olds in AL, similar to some other southern states. It's possible in 2016 they were even more so than 2012, but the youngest do seem to be slightly less so.

[Nyvin]

While this race has a steep age gradient, with voters under 45 voting 60-38 Jones while those 65+ voted 40-59 Moore, I noticed something in the CNN exit poll:

Those aged 30-39 voted 66-32 Jones
Those aged 25-29 voted 62-36 Jones
Those under 25 voted 59-40 Jones

Is this reverse gradient because

-voters born after 1990 or so are becoming more conservative?
-those likely to have young daughters at home (in their 30s, as opposed to 18-24) more personally disturbed by the allegations against Moore?, or
-something else?

I know Romney also did relatively well with 18-22 year olds compared to other young voters in 2012.   The statistic didn't really hold through when they voted in 2016 at later ages though.   It seems the very young voters are quite fickle with their voting patterns.

This doesn't explain "everything" about your post, but perhaps is a part of it.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

While this race has a steep age gradient, with voters under 45 voting 60-38 Jones while those 65+ voted 40-59 Moore, I noticed something in the CNN exit poll:

Those aged 30-39 voted 66-32 Jones
Those aged 25-29 voted 62-36 Jones
Those under 25 voted 59-40 Jones

Is this reverse gradient because

-voters born after 1990 or so are becoming more conservative?
-those likely to have young daughters at home (in their 30s, as opposed to 18-24) more personally disturbed by the allegations against Moore?, or
-something else?

Maybe slightly less so in Alabama. In some states - many maybe, 18-29 year olds are more Democratic than 30-39 year olds.

Here are the eps for AL 2012: http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/

Young people are much more Democratic than olds in AL, similar to some other southern states. It's possible in 2016 they were even more so than 2012, but the youngest do seem to be slightly less so.

Doing some math here suggests that 2016 AL youngs were likely much more Republican than 2012 youngs (and certainly than 2017).  Jones roughly doubled Clinton's share of the white vote.  According to FOX (which suggests a larger age gap than CNN), Jones got 48% of the young white vote.  The thing is that the swing could not have been universal, as that would have put Trump over 100% of the old white vote in all likelihood and there are certainly a few old white liberals somewhere in Alabama.  

So, a more likely way would be to say that Democrats doubled their percentage of the white vote with all age groups (actually, the change might be even greater with youngs).  This makes young whites roughly 75-25 in 2016, ignoring third parties.  If young blacks were 90-10 D and made up 25% of the young electorate, the young white vote in Alabama in 2016 was probably something like 59/41 Trump.  This massive change shows why places like Lee and Tuscaloosa Counties trended far faster than the state as a whole.  Whether it was that young Democrats showed up at presidential-level and young Republicans didn't turn out or if it was an actual shift in individuals remains to be seen.

[Tintrlvr]

While this race has a steep age gradient, with voters under 45 voting 60-38 Jones while those 65+ voted 40-59 Moore, I noticed something in the CNN exit poll:

Those aged 30-39 voted 66-32 Jones
Those aged 25-29 voted 62-36 Jones
Those under 25 voted 59-40 Jones

Is this reverse gradient because

-voters born after 1990 or so are becoming more conservative?
-those likely to have young daughters at home (in their 30s, as opposed to 18-24) more personally disturbed by the allegations against Moore?, or
-something else?

I know Romney also did relatively well with 18-22 year olds compared to other young voters in 2012.   The statistic didn't really hold through when they voted in 2016 at later ages though.   It seems the very young voters are quite fickle with their voting patterns.

This doesn't explain "everything" about your post, but perhaps is a part of it.

Very young voters are more influenced by their parents' politics. In an era of high age disparities, that means they are somewhat more Republican than voters a few years older whose politics are less influenced by their parents. Also, turnout among very young voters is extremely low (much worse than young voters generally), and this may disproportionately affect minority and/or liberal very young voters.

[Arkansas Yankee]

It would have to be a 21,000 vote error, since presumably if fake voters were bussed in their votes wouldn't count for Moore if they were discovered

Also lol@the idea this was what swing the election. I don't doubt there might be a few out of state volunteers who broke the rules to vote in place of people in Alabama, but Jones won by 20k over the child abuser. There's no fking way 'voter fraud' was even within a factor of 10 of that number, and there's also no way it had a meaningful impact on the race.

If Roy Moore wants to know who to blame to losing the most conversative state in the country, he need only look in a mirror. Even Alabama Republicans figured out he was a disgusting and crazy nut job with zero class or dignity (see: being outraged at the result and refusing to resign). When Trump looks like the mature adult in the room you know you've sunk pretty fking low.

I said transposition not transportation.  Do you know the diierence?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do you know the diierence?

I don't.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Do you know the diierence?

I don't.

Have you been to college or are you still in middle school?

Assuming the latter:

A transposition would involve an 11,000 figure of votes in Jones column, when itnshould have gone in Moore’s column.  Thus, Jones down 11,000 and Moore up 11,000.  Oops!  Moore is now ahead.

[Dr. Arch]

Do you know the diierence?

I don't.

Have you been to college or are you still in middle school?

Assuming the latter:

A transposition would involve an 11,000 figure of votes in Jones column, when itnshould have gone in Moore’s column.  Thus, Jones down 11,000 and Moore up 11,000.  Oops!  Moore is now ahead.

So this is where you're at at this point? lol