What time will Biden cross the HELMUT NORPOTH LINE?

[The Mikado]

When will Biden cross 176 EVs, beating the prediction of esteemed political scientist and totally-not-a-crank Helmut Norpoth?

[Flo 2.0]

there is literally 0 ways biden can get past this line. 2008 vibes and my boy is on the losing side

[Never Made it to Graceland]

"Helmut Norpoth" sounds like a West German scientist in the 1950s with a... shady... past who moves to the US to help defeat communism.

[The Mikado]

The optimal HELMUT NORPOTH map, although there's one circulating around that does it by giving Trump New York.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The optimal HELMUT NORPOTH map, although there's one circulating around that does it by giving Trump New York.

This is almost as quack as Dick Morris's 2012 model. He had Obama getting blown out nationally. He was fired from Fox for it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/dick-morris-worst-predictions-fox-news-fired-cnn-2013-2

[MR DARK BRANDON]

No man has broken through that almighty line

[Stuart98]

I think it's unlikely that he crosses it before 11 PM. Not impossible, but it would require one of Florida or Texas and one of NC, GA, or (if TX) MN, or all three of the latter states. (This is assuming PA and MI won't be called the night of regardless of early returns due to their reporting situation).

[Gustaf]

For those wondering, from what I can tell this doesn't predict the outcome in states so there is no "Norpoth electoral map". It predicts the number of electoral votes based on a statistical regression on fairly wacky variables.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The 177 fireweil is real.

[The Mikado]

For those wondering, from what I can tell this doesn't predict the outcome in states so there is no "Norpoth electoral map". It predicts the number of electoral votes based on a statistical regression on fairly wacky variables.

Yes, but the one I made is the most "reasonable" Trump 362 map. You could give Trump CT instead of OR if you wanted to...it'd be equally dumb.

[S019ian Liberal]

For those wondering, from what I can tell this doesn't predict the outcome in states so there is no "Norpoth electoral map". It predicts the number of electoral votes based on a statistical regression on fairly wacky variables.

Yes, but the one I made is the most "reasonable" Trump 362 map. You could give Trump CT instead of OR if you wanted to...it'd be equally dumb.

RI + DE is better than CT imo.

Or another CD in ME

[redjohn]

10:00 PM on the dot.

Lot of good MI flipping is going to do. Riots and big boat parades are going to swing California to Trump (outside of the cities it's all Trumpers)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

sometime Wednesday evening.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/JasonSCampbell/status/1323393061758685184

HELMUT NORPOTH speaks!

[demoman1596]

When will Biden cross 176 EVs, beating the prediction of esteemed political scientist and totally-not-a-crank Helmut Norpoth?

He'll cross it by 11 PM for sure.  Before California poll closing time (at 11 PM), I have to think Biden will be at 132 in states I'm counting as safe: Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Virginia, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine District 1.  I don't believe there's any reason these states will still be outstanding, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Once you add Cali at 11 PM, Biden's at 187.

[Crumpets]

"Helmut Norpoth" sounds like a West German scientist in the 1950s with a... shady... past who moves to the US to help defeat communism.

I figured he was some Austrian politician and this was a Tender thread asking when Biden would hit some number in some Austrian election once.

[The Mikado]

If your prediction was busted this week (and whose wasn't?), at least you probably did better than HELMUT NORPOTH did.