Texas 2022 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Ah yes, those famously accurate internals that people were jerking themselves off over:
https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1320748939751026690

That internal has nearly 15% third party/other, I mean...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ah yes, those famously accurate internals that people were jerking themselves off over:
https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1320748939751026690

https://fallacyinlogic.com/hasty-generalization-fallacy-definition-and-examples/

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1579226077045854208

Beto is somehow winning the sign war in rural Texas, at least the hill country area. Saw more Beto signs than republican signs on my road trip

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is definitely a blue not red wave developing  and Johnson +1 in WI isn't an R wave he should be up by more than that but users are trying to act like he's safe and he isnt

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1579226077045854208

Beto is somehow winning the sign war in rural Texas, at least the hill country area. Saw more Beto signs than republican signs on my road trip

Honestly not even sure if the Abbott campaign is pumping out signs at all. There’s a ton of Mealer signs over here in Cypress and I’ve only seen like 5 Beto signs so far. I reckon the majority of Mealer voters are voting for Abbott as well, but maybe they don’t want to admit it due to retaliation fears?

This is definitely a blue not red wave developing  and Johnson +1 in WI isn't an R wave he should be up by more than that but users are trying to act like he's safe and he isnt

You do realize Beto would lose in a blue wave too, right? I mean he’s already lost in one blue wave year so…

[Calthrina950]

Ah yes, those famously accurate internals that people were jerking themselves off over:
https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1320748939751026690

https://fallacyinlogic.com/hasty-generalization-fallacy-definition-and-examples/

We are to assume then that Abbott is going to be held to a margin as narrow as Cruz's? As I've said before, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if the margin is within single digits and if O'Rourke does as least as well as Biden did in 2020, but I would be shocked if he did as well as in 2018.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Fwiw, in Collin county, it pains me to say that Beto is being demolished in the sign game. I know it probably doesn't matter in the end but I've only just started to see a few Beto signs on the highways after the parade of GOP signs. Democratic congressional candidates are doing a little better...

Interestingly, on private residences, I've seen way more Beto signs than GOP, however.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fwiw, in Collin county, it pains me to say that Beto is being demolished in the sign game. I know it probably doesn't matter in the end but I've only just started to see a few Beto signs on the highways after the parade of GOP signs. Democratic congressional candidates are doing a little better...

Interestingly, on private residences, I've seen way more Beto signs than GOP, however.

May I ask where are you in Collin County?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Fwiw, in Collin county, it pains me to say that Beto is being demolished in the sign game. I know it probably doesn't matter in the end but I've only just started to see a few Beto signs on the highways after the parade of GOP signs. Democratic congressional candidates are doing a little better...

Interestingly, on private residences, I've seen way more Beto signs than GOP, however.

May I ask where are you in Collin County?

I live in Allen, which is pretty central... although my job regularly brings me all across Collin and the DFW area.

[Tintrlvr]

Fwiw, in Collin county, it pains me to say that Beto is being demolished in the sign game. I know it probably doesn't matter in the end but I've only just started to see a few Beto signs on the highways after the parade of GOP signs. Democratic congressional candidates are doing a little better...

Interestingly, on private residences, I've seen way more Beto signs than GOP, however.

Highway signs are completely meaningless. Signs on houses are pretty meaningless too but at least might be a measure of something.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Fwiw, in Collin county, it pains me to say that Beto is being demolished in the sign game. I know it probably doesn't matter in the end but I've only just started to see a few Beto signs on the highways after the parade of GOP signs. Democratic congressional candidates are doing a little better...

Interestingly, on private residences, I've seen way more Beto signs than GOP, however.

Highway signs are completely meaningless. Signs on houses are pretty meaningless too but at least might be a measure of something.

Oh I realize that but it can still effect how your supporters feel about the race and considering Collin is probably in the top three most critical counties for a Democrat to win state-wide in Texas eventually and I'd argue they should be doing a lot more here. If nothing else it certainly does represent the level of organization your candidacy/campaign has in a certain place.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fwiw, in Collin county, it pains me to say that Beto is being demolished in the sign game. I know it probably doesn't matter in the end but I've only just started to see a few Beto signs on the highways after the parade of GOP signs. Democratic congressional candidates are doing a little better...

Interestingly, on private residences, I've seen way more Beto signs than GOP, however.

May I ask where are you in Collin County?

I live in Allen, which is pretty central... although my job regularly brings me all across Collin and the DFW area.

Interesting because Allen is a very swingy community that has obviously been shifting hard left in recent cycles.

If you're seeing more neighbors with Beto signs than Abbott signs, that seems like a good thing in my book. I do agree that things like highway signage can show how seriously campaigns are investing in certain communities though so that's a bit dissapointing.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Fwiw, in Collin county, it pains me to say that Beto is being demolished in the sign game. I know it probably doesn't matter in the end but I've only just started to see a few Beto signs on the highways after the parade of GOP signs. Democratic congressional candidates are doing a little better...

Interestingly, on private residences, I've seen way more Beto signs than GOP, however.

May I ask where are you in Collin County?

I live in Allen, which is pretty central... although my job regularly brings me all across Collin and the DFW area.

Interesting because Allen is a very swingy community that has obviously been shifting hard left in recent cycles.

If you're seeing more neighbors with Beto signs than Abbott signs, that seems like a good thing in my book. I do agree that things like highway signage can show how seriously campaigns are investing in certain communities though so that's a bit dissapointing.

Indeed, Biden actually won Allen by 1 point in 2020 while Romney won it by 31 points in 2012 (no joke!) so Collin is certainly seeing movement. And while it's absolutely anecdotal I can personally attest to having convinced nearly a dozen people to register to vote and vote Blue since I moved here in late 2019. I don't know a single person under 30 who is voting GOP.

It's a little over 300 bucks to buy 40 yard signs... Maybe if I'm still here in 2022 I'll fundraise and put the damn signs up myself, lol. Does anyone know the law on that? Can you just go put up signs for your candidate where you see dozens of others?

[Real Texan Politics]

Fwiw, in Collin county, it pains me to say that Beto is being demolished in the sign game. I know it probably doesn't matter in the end but I've only just started to see a few Beto signs on the highways after the parade of GOP signs. Democratic congressional candidates are doing a little better...

Interestingly, on private residences, I've seen way more Beto signs than GOP, however.

Highway signs are completely meaningless. Signs on houses are pretty meaningless too but at least might be a measure of something.

Reminds me of earlier this year. Don Huffines had a killer highway sign game, but that obviously didn’t translate over to home signs (of which I think I only saw two at the same house) and of course the primary results.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fwiw, in Collin county, it pains me to say that Beto is being demolished in the sign game. I know it probably doesn't matter in the end but I've only just started to see a few Beto signs on the highways after the parade of GOP signs. Democratic congressional candidates are doing a little better...

Interestingly, on private residences, I've seen way more Beto signs than GOP, however.

May I ask where are you in Collin County?

I live in Allen, which is pretty central... although my job regularly brings me all across Collin and the DFW area.

Interesting because Allen is a very swingy community that has obviously been shifting hard left in recent cycles.

If you're seeing more neighbors with Beto signs than Abbott signs, that seems like a good thing in my book. I do agree that things like highway signage can show how seriously campaigns are investing in certain communities though so that's a bit dissapointing.

Indeed, Biden actually won Allen by 1 point in 2020 while Romney won it by 31 points in 2012 (no joke!) so Collin is certainly seeing movement. And while it's absolutely anecdotal I can personally attest to having convinced nearly a dozen people to register to vote and vote Blue since I moved here in late 2019. I don't know a single person under 30 who is voting GOP.

It's a little over 300 bucks to buy 40 yard signs... Maybe if I'm still here in 2022 I'll fundraise and put the damn signs up myself, lol. Does anyone know the law on that? Can you just go put up signs for your candidate where you see dozens of others?

Regardless of how the parties evolve, I feel pretty confident in saying Collin County will be a D-leaning County by the end of the decade because it seems like growth and generational turnover is extremely favorable to Dems. It's def one of those places where even if Rs tried it just is not demographically possible for it to vote how it did just a decade ago.

I also feel like places like Allen and Frisco are stereotyped as being extremely white well to do suburbs when infact as of the 2020 census, Allen is just 51% white and Collin County overall is also just 51% white and by 2030 will almost certainly be majority-minority.

[Real Texan Politics]

Mealer just picked up a major endorsement
https://twitter.com/HoustonChron/status/1580266965159276544?s=20&t=R7VTH1sxv...

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1579226077045854208

Beto is somehow winning the sign war in rural Texas, at least the hill country area. Saw more Beto signs than republican signs on my road trip

I'm highly skeptical of this being anything meaningful. Polling averages have been extremely accurate in predicting the final Dem vote share in TX but often not the margin. For example, most polling averages correctly had Biden at around 46% and Trump at around 47%. It doesn't take a genius to realize that 46 + 47 is only 93 and third parties aren't pulling 7% of the vote. Predictably, 5 of the 7 remaining points went to the Republican candidate as Trump won 52% of the vote. Beto has been locked in these averages right around 43%.

If that doesn't improve by election day, I don't foresee a single digit margin. The math just doesn't add up unless one can find overwhelming evidence of a magical hidden Beto vote. That's more consistent with a 55-43 Abbott win and it just so happens to very neatly coincide with a 6 or so point swing from a D+4.5 2020 national environment to an R+1.5 national environment which is in all likelihood within a point of what will actually happen barring any absolutely insane October surprises between now and election day. That said, if anyone was to break their polling averages, it would be Beto since he's the only one to have done that recently to any meaningful degree. The concern this time is that there isn't a D+9 national environment with an R president to help him out and the surge in turnout among marginal Dem voters (and the depressed turnout among Rs) that comes with that.

[bagelman]

I think the Trends should be enough for Beto to keep the margin respectable. Abbott is not headed for a landslide win.

[The Dowager Mod]

Mothers against Greg Abbott are back.
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1580594164726919168

[Orwell]

Mothers against Greg Abbott are back.
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1580594164726919168

That was brutal

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm expecting an Abbott winning margin somewhere around 4 or 5 points at this stage. The margins Abbott will get from rural TX are going to be brutal, but Beto looks well placed in more urban counties.

[Real Texan Politics]

I'm expecting an Abbott winning margin somewhere around 4 or 5 points at this stage. The margins Abbott will get from rural TX are going to be brutal, but Beto looks well placed in more urban counties.

Nah, can't see Texas voting to the left of 2020. Maybe in a blue wave year, but not this time around. Abbott probably wins by 8 at the bare minimum.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm expecting an Abbott winning margin somewhere around 4 or 5 points at this stage. The margins Abbott will get from rural TX are going to be brutal, but Beto looks well placed in more urban counties.

Nah, can't see Texas voting to the left of 2020. Maybe in a blue wave year, but not this time around. Abbott probably wins by 8 at the bare minimum.

Greg Abbott is at this point more of a lightning rod than Trump was and is under considerable scrutiny on several major issues. There is a strong Democratic base in the state at this point (though both outnumbered by Rs and very insufficient for victory by itself), and Beto is energizing it. Beto's always had a very hard hill to climb and Abbott's in a good place to win the election, but I expect moderates and liberals opposed to Abbott to varying degrees turning out to vote against him. Of course, Abbott is winning some moderates too, and his ads aren't too bad.
Nonetheless, with how polarized the state can get, I don't at all find it likely Abbott to win by double digit anything.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Could this race be closer than Georgia or Florida?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Could this race be closer than Georgia or Florida?

Florida probably, Georgia possibly.