Anyway, for those keeping score at home, today is the Pictou West by-election.
After 30 minutes the first polls have come in, with the new Tory candidate doing extremely well so far.
Wasn't quite sure how this would go - in terms of whether the Tory vote would rise or fall, not whether he'd win the seat - as a new candidate replacing a long-standing member will usually see a reduced majority no matter how strong the party's provincewide polling (see the 2019 by-elections). On the other hand, the Tories' poll numbers, both provincial and federal, have been very good indeed lately, and the Tories have shown they can put up a good ground game at by-elections (particularly when hoping to gain a seat, as in 2019, 2020 & 2023).