Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[bagelman]

ACCK the top one uses mainstream media colors inverted rather than normal atlas colors

But yea that's cool. I'm probably going to be using mainstream media colors because of the differences in the shades of red and blue that correspond to mainstream media.

[bagelman]

Obama2012 with no hispanic vote whatsoever. he wins 298-240.

[bagelman]

2016 with all Trump voters for JOHNSON

[bagelman]

A blatant fantasy of mine. Exact states don't really matter but the idea is that Fetterman is seen as a spoiler for Harris by the MSM but public distrust of them continues to mount. Hawley, interchangeable as a candidate, is seen as a return of the GOP's blueblooded establishment and is the favorite to win against divided opposition. The result is that Fetterman wins a plurality of the vote and majority of the EV. Hawley is mainly supported by Safe R southern evangelicals while Harris's support are a mix of blacks (FAR lower share than usual), wealthy suburbanites, and other out of touch spoiler voters. Harris wins DC with this coalition and nowhere else, while she spoils Fetterman in VA, TX, and other winnable southern states. Even most pessimists regarding her campaign had her spoiling Fetterman much more and getting a far larger share of the vote than she did, but she earns the lowest Democrat share of the vote, electoral and popular, in history.

[bagelman]

2020 GE swapped with 2018 House.

It's just trading GA for IA. However it's possible Dems flip ME and IA in this scenario while the GOP holds both GA seats, meaning we get a 50-50 Senate.

[bagelman]

Another alternate 2020. As for who the Democratic candidate is, I dunno. Maybe Sanders, maybe someone else. Probably not Bloomberg or Buttigieg.

[bagelman]

1988 with a different party system

The American Party, a right wing party, had first taken power in 1980 from the Liberals. Campaigning on a pro-police, anti-crime agenda, they held onto power in 1988.

Not shown is the New Democratic Party, the dominate party from the 1930s until 1968 which was their last major showing. By the 1980s they no longer contest presidential elections.

The American Party would retain power for the rest of the century and beyond. The 2000 election would see the American Party as the underdog, running a more moderate candidate. However the Democrats would try and come back from the dead and spoil the election for the liberals, giving the American Party a lifeline. They would win in 2004 but this would be the last time.

In 2008 the Liberals would finally regain power and have held it sense. 2016 would see a competitive election in which the American Party would appeal to downmarket WCW's and the Democrats would return again, but the Liberals retained power. 2020 would be a Liberal landslide, even winning South Dakota, as the American Party would shift gears towards the educated and the Democrats would decline from 2016. The Liberal Party currently enjoys unmatched power. 

[bagelman]

1988 with different political coalitions. The Republicans, incumbent party, are running on a free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. Democrats oppose it but are forced to defend their core states of Missouri, Minnesota, Michigan, and New York on the battleground map. Thus it's almost certain that Republicans will retain power, forcing Democrats to wait another 4 years.

[bagelman]

A battleground map for an alternative 1844 election that would prove accurate. This was an economic election in which Democrats were forced to triage New York and Pennsylvania, but had most other states in their pocket. Ohio would be the single most important swing state, an absolute must have for the Whigs to avoid an automatic Democratic victory.



A scenario in which the Whig Party collapses far earlier than it should have, leading to a period of utter dominance by Jacksonian Democrats with only an esoteric Know Nothing party to oppose them. The issue of slavery would serve to end this period.



The annexation of Texas would prove to be impossible in the context of 1844 due to events outside the control of the United States. With this boon, Henry Clay would win an election with the main issue being an internal improvements program. Clay was able to convince voters that his support of government investment would be good for everybody, and that Democrats opposed it for esoteric political reasons.



The issue of slavery becomes penultimate earlier than OTL. With the Democrats viewed as the party of planter aristocrats in the north, Clay appears moderate enough for voters in states like Illinois and New Hampshire to digest. Northern Democrats would try and reform the party, but they would fail to defeat the new power base of planter aristocrats, which would lead to an eventual crises...

[bagelman]

A higher energy Clinton against a more coherent Trump - the latter not necessarily a good thing. Clinton chooses Castro as her running mate, and makes a strong play for the Latino vote and is able to retain much of her 2008 primary charms. She was unafraid of comparing herself and her husband favorably to Obama carefully.

Clinton won the popular vote with her flipping of Texas and monster margin in California. The election came down to Florida, and in a reversal of 2000 the state saved the popular vote winning Democrats rather than screwed them. Clinton's ad campaign targeting Cubans and vicious soundbites against the Venezuelan and Cuban regimes gave her the presidency.

Closest states:

1. Florida
2. North Carolina
3. Georgia
4. Texas
5. Minnesota

Iowa was over R+10.

[bagelman]

2020 averaged out with 2008 ending up worse than OTL 2020 despite a larger PV margin for Biden.



2020 averaged with 2004 though is a D+1 PV win, less than half of 2016's margin, and is still a bare win.

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

The mandate we deserved: If 2020 swung like Vermont



Barefaced on the Beach: if the nation had the generic pro-incumbent swing of Hawaii

[bagelman]

The mandate we deserved: If 2020 swung like Vermont

LOL Ohio.

[bagelman]

The mandate we deserved: If 2020 swung like Vermont



Barefaced on the Beach: if the nation had the generic pro-incumbent swing of Hawaii

How would things look if things swung like Utah?

Same state map as Hawaii. It's a difference of only 0.36 points in favor of Democrats, which isn't enough to overturn a very narrow Trump PV win of 0.27 points.

[bagelman]

The mandate we deserved: If 2020 swung like Vermont



Barefaced on the Beach: if the nation had the generic pro-incumbent swing of Hawaii

What about Henry County, Georgia?

Enough to not only flip OH/IA but also AK and a real surprise in SC.

[bagelman]

Here's how all the states effect 2020:

1. Hawaii, Utah, and Florida. The Terrible Trio. Trump flips Nevada and holds all other states. Democrats manage to flip NE-02 so Trump only gains 5 EV from 2016. 311-227 R. However, Trump wins the popular vote. In the case of Florida it's by a margin of 0.07 points.

2. Arkansas and California: Same as above but Democrats win the popular vote yet again. 2016 redux.

3. Nevada (and DC): Democrats flip Michigan but Trump holds every else that matters. Nevada stays with Democrats by 8 individual votes; there is a Trumpist protest in the state as a result, just to add insult to injury. 289-249 R.

4. Ohio, Illinois, New York, Idaho, Louisiana: Democrats flip Michigan but Trump holds every else that matters. Trump comes close to flipping Nevada but fails for OH/IL. Democrats come close to flipping Pennsylvania, to hang the electoral college, but fail for ID/LA. Same EV total.

5. Iowa, Mississippi, Wisconsin: Democrats flip Pennsylvania (and NE-02) but lose Wisconsin, hanging the electoral college. Their come from behind victory in the state, especially in the IA scenario, keeps the result unknown for weeks. Big protesting on both sides. Democrats are livid about Wisconsin's very narrow margin and at the prospect of Pelosi personally having to reelect Trump.

6. New Jersey, Pennsylvania: Democrats flip Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and win 279-259. Bare minimum victory.

7. 15 other states, including Michigan, the Carolinas, and Texas: the 306-232 result of OTL.

8. 9 other states, including Arizona and Georgia: Democrats flip North Carolina, gaining a 321-217 EC victory.

9. Kansas: Florida gives Trump the 2000 treatment, giving Democrats a 350-188 EC win. Lots of Gore/Trump voters in Carbon County PA and northeast Ohio are furious, but Florida's counts and recounts are generally ignored due to the decided nature of the election.

10: 7 other states, including Nebraska, Maine, and Delaware: Same map as #9 but no drama in Florida.

11. Colorado and Vermont: Texas flips, Democrats win 388-150. Ohio and Iowa are stubbornly out of reach, sadly, as is ME-02. Elsewhere Democrats treat this as an Obama '08 style victory.

[bagelman]

If each state swung like the strongest D swing for Biden. Added lots of extra data for hovering over.

[bagelman]

Same for largest R swing

[bagelman]

Most recent gubernatorial results with flips since 2018. KY flipped in 2019 and is neutralized by WV/MT in 2020.

[bagelman]

Average of 2016 and 2020, the 2018 election.

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

you can own kangaroo in yellow state

other state win majority of pv and ev