Blue state turning red

[Kevin]

I'd say PA & WI like other members for a number of both similar and different reasons. Also, I'll add NJ to the mix for a few reasons.

PA-One of the quintessential swing states due to demographic and geographical reasons. Hasn't voted Republican since 1988, although it hasn't voted for Democrat's by particularly comfortable margin's ether excluding 2008. Clinton never won above 50% here even when he was running for reelection with favorable circumstances and Gore/Kerry only won it by 2-4 points between them in 2000 and 2004 respectively. Before going big with the Democrats in the midterms of 2006 & Pres election of 2008.

While Pennsylvania swung hard against the Democrats in both 1994 & 2006, and poll's have shown it very close(currently) for 2012. Also, an electoral shift appears to be underway in PA from 2008 onwards where the blue collar, ethnic and traditionally Democratic counties around Pittsburgh seemed to be trending R hard. While the 2010 Midterm's show that the long running Democratic trend in the counties around Philly seems to be slowly reversing or has halted with previously Democratic voting moderates/indes giving the GOP another look with the Dem bad fortune's recently. Thus making things more unpredictable for 2012. Although, I'd still give Obama the edge at least for now in 2012.

WI-Highly unstable if Democratic leaning state politically. Hasn't voted Republican since 1984, supported Clinton barely in 1992 but supporting him strongly for reelection in 1996. Was predicted by most pundits and polls in 2000 and 2004 to go for Bush Jr. comfortably, but ended up going for Gore or Kerry barely.

While on the other hand swung very hard to the Republicans in 2006 by electing a cosnervative Tea-Parter to the Senate over a previously thought to be unbeatable liberal icon. Along with around 3 or so previously Democratic House seats flipping to the Pubbies. Combined with the near total obliteration of the WI Democratic party on the state/local level.  

However, poll's show that that even though many of the proposed Republican policies to be very unpopular in Wisconsin and Obama still leading Republicans here by decent margins. Given WI's vulnerability to political mood changes things could change here very easily and very quickly.

NJ-See PA, Republican's have been gradually crawling back in recent years in this state that went solidly D post-1992. GOP picked up the Governorship and a couple of Congressional seats here, and may pick up a Senate seat in the future? There were also some Dem worries about this state back in 2004 & 2006. Also, Obama's approval's here haven't been great and show in winning by much less then in 2008. Even though he still is on track to win here in 2012 as of now.