2008 hypothetical: Bayh/Warner vs. Allen/Sanford

[tarheel-leftist85]

The states in gray consistently poll within 5pt. margins.

Bayh--190EV
Allen--181EV

Bayh will visit the Northeast 5 times or less during the election, mostly to Pennsylvania.  For this reason, he may well lose New Hampshire (especially with the comparatively libertarian Allen and Sanford, and a strong third-party showing).  Indiana consistently polls with 5 or 6 pt. margins.  However, Bayh will realize a significant swing on election day, winning the state by almost 10 pts.  The election will play out in other states in the way that I described them in the Bayh/Easley v. Allen/Sanford matchup.


Bayh--313EV (50.0%)
Allen--225EV (49.0%)

[tarheel-leftist85]

Well I recall seeing a poll conducted by the Indy Star where 49% of Indiana voters would definitely vote for him for President, 30-something% said they definitely wouldn't, and the rest we're undecided.  So basically, Bayh starts with 49%.  Hillary starts with less than 30% definite in places like Ohio, Virginia, and Michigan.  So if he wins IN, all he has to do is pick-up IA.  If he loses IN, he could win Ohio.  But Bayh would also hopefully test the waters in Arkansas.  Voters there don't seem to be told how to vote and are apparetly persuadable.  Though I don't live there, I have a suspicion that "Democrat" isn't a bad word.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Republicans speculate that Tom Vilsack would be a formidable candidate?  Hah, like Hillary "Media Whore" Clinton.  Is it b/c he restored voting rights to murderous felons?  Y'all won't spew that in our face in '08!  I can see the revolving door ad revamped from 1988.  There really is no savior for either political party (it's usually just hype).  But a good barometer of a Democrat's formidability is how Republicans tout (or don't tout) them.  That's why Fox News and just about every conservaitve blogger who even mentions Warner just KNOWS he'll run for the Senate next year.  That's why Fox News softballs Hillary--they let her get by with all her crap, right now.  They know what'll happen.  Mark Warner is no John Edwards.  He's the nightmare of Republicans who mislead America into thinking Democrats are card-carrying Commies.  Vilsack couldn't win Iowa--much, much less the Presidency.  For Evan Bayh it's IN and IA.  For Warner it's VA and NV.  Not to mention OH, NM, AR, and MO.  We'll have to see whether Florida has any hope of being a populist state (as some on the forum have given me some assurances).