WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[S019]

I think Kind will run in the end, and this will be competitive, even in a Biden midterm, but I probably can't see Democrats pulling it off, but it's not like Iowa where it'll be a done deal even before the cycle starts. Also, there's a reason Republicans are pouring money into races against WWC seat Democrats like Kind, Bustos, and DeFazio, they see them as clearly vulnerable in 2022 and if the nonentity running against Kind comes within 10 this year, he's a goner in a more Rep environment against a better opponent. This state was still 5 pts right of the nation in 2016 and looks to be around there this year and it seems to swing more with the national environment than say PA, so this will definitely be a tough race, I'd say Lean R, right now, honestly, but I expect both parties to aggressively contest this race.

[S019]

What are the odds of 2022 turning into a Republican 2018, and this seat goes the way of Bill Nelson?

PA is a likelier contender for that, especially if someone like Lamb runs who can probably keep R margins down in the rurals (as long as he doesn't face Fitzpatrick, who'd do well in the suburbs to compensate for the rural underperformance). I guess the same thing could happen here if Kind faced someone like Scott Walker, who isn't well liked in Driftless, but WOW would come out in full force for Walker, so who knows

[S019]

What are the odds of 2022 turning into a Republican 2018, and this seat goes the way of Bill Nelson?

All Dem Govs including Everrs and Fetterman should be reelected 🤗🤗🤗

Senate map 2022

Gov map 2022

Lol at Democrats winning Iowa in a Biden midterm, and Kemp and DeSantis would lose if IA flipped

[S019]

Lean R -> Lean R. I highly doubt there are hoards of Any Republican but Johnson > Any Democrat > Johnson voters, or vice versa. Wisconsin isn’t exactly a state where being perceived as a centrist makes you more “electable”, nor does being perceived as far left/right function as a vice.

No it's not, if you really think D's can't make up 359 K votes that Johnson won and Baldwin won by a landslide you are kidding yourself, Russ Feingold almost won

It's Wisconsin in a midterm, Biden only won the state because of inroads in WOW and I feel like any non Trump candidate would at least do marginally better there (surely enough to make up 20k votes or whatever), not to mention that RoJo has historically overperformed in the Milwaukee metro, so I don't see that changing.

[S019]

https://wisconsinexaminer.com/brief/johnson-pushes-ivermectin-and-vaccine-conspiracies-while-local-officials-look-for-help-on-infrastructure/

Johnson is still probably a (very slight) favorite, but he's really not doing himself any favors. What's he even getting at with all of these insane comments?

He's a true believer, we already knew this, I think he'll be fine because Wisconsin is a state that should lean red, even in a neutral year, and also it almost voted for Trump after all of the crazy stuff that he said.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/lawindsor/status/1432766974354931719

Ron Johnson says Trump lost due to ticket splitting, perhaps this is an attempt to moderate his image ahead of a re-election bid?