Axis wins WWII

[J. J.]

I've got to agree with Super on this.  Even with FDR, there were extreme left and right wing factions in the US in the early 1930's. 

[J. J.]

I would need a scenario that discounts Britain.  Sea Lion would have been a failure, even if the RAF had been severely damaged.

There is no way any British government (unless headed by Sir Oswald Moseley) would make peace with a Nazi Germany that occupies the Low Countries.

[J. J.]

Basically, if the war starts in 1939, and England is not neutral or allied to Germany, you are going have to come up with some scenario in which the UK either is occupied or a separate peace is made.  The latter will not happen so long as the Nazis occupy the invasion beaches in the Low Countries.  "British Belgium" is a possibility, however.

[J. J.]

Basically, if the war starts in 1939, and England is not neutral or allied to Germany, you are going have to come up with some scenario in which the UK either is occupied or a separate peace is made.  The latter will not happen so long as the Nazis occupy the invasion beaches in the Low Countries.  "British Belgium" is a possibility, however.

The easy option here is have Lord Halifax become PM, under which Churchill would probably be given a far reaching defense portfolio, but reaching an amiable peace with Germany before the end of May 1940 by way of the Italians and their ambassador Bastianini with whom relations were somewhat stronger)

The peace terms would probably have been fairly lighthanded on the UK,  with the return of their mandates over the German colonies granted to then under Versailles and the de-militarisation of Gibraltar, Malta and the installation of a German base on Cyprus. There would of course have been an immediate general election, the first since 1935 so who knows how that would turn out. I can't see Churchill or Bevin playing ball in Halifax's coalition and there could be a re-alignment after the election, but one that would not jeopardise the peace treaty.

After the fall of France, I see no way that Halifax could have made a separate peace.  The Low Countries have been an issue since the Hundred Years War, if not before.  Further, Halifax had dealt for years with Hitler and didn't trust him.

The only thinks that I can see are:

1.  A Fascist British government in the mid-1930's that allies itself with the Nazis (Mosely most probably).

2.  The Nazis invade and win (it would have been a blood bath, even if they would have pulled it off).  I doubt if they could have carried out Operation Sea Lion.

3.  Hitler becomes exceptionally generous.  He agrees to give up land he recently conquered and permits a substantial British military presence in the both the Netherlands and Belgium, at least in the coastal areas.  Had the Nazis actually understood British policy, they might have made the offer.

Even in this case, Churchill would never have done it, though Halifax might.    There might have been that re-aligning election after that

[J. J.]

Thinking again about this, if you could keep the US out for a few more years, that might be a possibility.

[J. J.]

I'm actually thinking about an alternate history, with a point of divergence in May of 1940.

[J. J.]

In 1924, Sir Oswald Mosley ran for the seat held by Neville Chamberlain.  He lost by 77 votes.  What would have happened if Mosley had won?  He was Independent Labor at the time.

What would happened if he developed a philosophy similar to the National Socialist, in fact and not in name?

To get Britain out of WWII, I only see two alternatives:

1.  Peace with divided Belgium.

2.  Britain allied with Germany (or at least neutral) prior to 1939.

[J. J.]

In 1924, Sir Oswald Mosley ran for the seat held by Neville Chamberlain.  He lost by 77 votes.  What would have happened if Mosley had won?  He was Independent Labor at the time.

Well, the power of the ancient Chamberlain machine in Birmingham would have been shattered and Neville could never have become P.M.
Beyond that, not a lot would have changed (certainly not as Moseley himself goes).

I'm not certain.  Mosley, basically forms a Fascist party (under another name), with some socialist tendencies.  It starts small, but, like the Nazis, becomes bigger during the Depression.  Perhaps around 1934-7, the National  Government and Mosley becomes PM.