OK-Gov 2022: Dream the Impossible Dream?

[Calthrina950]

https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/democrat-jena-nelson-leads-ryan-walters-in-statewide-school-superintendent-race

Sooner Poll has Democrat Jena Nelson leading Republican Ryan Walters by 5 points for the Superintendent race.

I don’t believe this, but it would be truly hilarious if Oklahoma elects a statewide Democrat and Florida doesn’t.

It certainly would be. If I'm correct, a Democrat hasn't won a statewide election in Oklahoma since Brad Henry was reelected as Governor in 2006. I don't see that drought ending anytime soon.

[Calthrina950]

Democrats do actually enjoy an edge on education, at least in red states. Many voters trust the GOP government to stop 'CRT' but want to stop them from defunding public schools. For instance, Indiana had a Democratic suuperintendent quite recently.

Sherri Ybarra, Idaho's incumbent Republican Superintendent, only won reelection by 3% in 2018 against Cindy Wilson. That's a very good example of this. Education has traditionally been a Democratic issue, although that advantage has been lessened in recent years because of the fights over CRT, teachers unions, and the coronavirus pandemic.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1579491387216912385

Stitt has had a very antagonistic relationship with the tribes and apparently blocked funds for them, so it's not surprising to me that they are endorsing Hofmeister. It would be extraordinary if Democrats managed to flip Oklahoma of all states in a year like this, although I still think Stitt is going to win without much difficulty.

[Calthrina950]

I could believe a Democrat winning a gubernatorial election in Oklahoma, but I'm skeptical of these polls because they also show the Senate races being a lot closer than they should be. Lankford in particularly has always been a strong performer in his races.

I think Lankford and Mullin will win by more than the polls indicate, but it's not hard for me to see the two Horns getting above 30%. Oklahoma County has swung left over the past decade, and both Trump and Inhofe came within a few thousand votes of losing it in 2020. And of course, polarization will lower the ceiling for even the strongest incumbents.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1587867933971304451?s=20&t=uzPXqm0h...

Do you believe Hofmeister has a better chance at winning than Zeldin does at this point?