Hollywood
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,729
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« on: August 17, 2022, 08:49:19 PM » |
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Marquette has an anti-Trump bias, and they talked about their difficulty locating Trump Voters in 2016 and 2020. They're using a 2016/2018 model that under-estimates Republicans by 5 points. After leaners, it comes out to Republicans with 45 and Democrats 44 (+1%), which adds up to all the people certain or likely to vote. The Republicans lose votes in the Senate matchup, and the remaining people vote for a guy they heard about, Mandela, while Evers, a guy they've heard about, is stagnant.
Then you have the policy questions that were either read out of order, or completely missing from the survey. So 380 participants are absent from policy questions like inflation, and there is no breakdown indicating important issues. They merely ask whether the participant is concerned about inflation, abortion or crime, which are all things almost everyone is concerned about. In contrast, they managed to ask everyone about January 6th, and pretty much every issue Democrats want stressed to voters.
I think that Emerson Poll of Ohio is real barometer of Republican strength in the Midwest. The group most likely to vote is rural voters, because they are struggling with inflation, in addition to an issue that has been less probed than Monkey Pox, drug abuse and overdoses.
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