State trend predictions through the 2030's

[Schiff for Senate]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections.  

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

I could actually visualize much of this happening.

I have only two issues- outside of Georgia, I deeply doubt that the Deep South trends that far to the left. Most southern suburbs are rather evangelical and probably wouldn’t have an issue with Roe v Wade being overturned.

Also, Mormons are extremely pro life. They are not going to pull a VA 2008 over Roe v Wade being overturned, I promise.

Figures that you take fault with Democratic overperformance in the South and Utah and not with California and New York voting solidly red. If you were even remotely objective you wouldn't object to the South and UT unless you objected to CA and NY as well, since CA and NY flipping is much less likely than it is that UT and parts of the South flip. None of it is likely but the margins in NY and CA for Democrats compared to GOP margins in UT and SC and MS alone make it clear which is more likely. I thought that perhaps you'd learned to stop overestimating how Republican California is after your embarrassing recall prediction fail, but clearly, you've returned to your old self and learned nothing about Californian politics in the process (I should know, being Californian myself, that the state is solidly blue).

[Schiff for Senate]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections.  

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

I could actually visualize much of this happening.

I have only two issues- outside of Georgia, I deeply doubt that the Deep South trends that far to the left. Most southern suburbs are rather evangelical and probably wouldn’t have an issue with Roe v Wade being overturned.

Also, Mormons are extremely pro life. They are not going to pull a VA 2008 over Roe v Wade being overturned, I promise.

Figures that you take fault with Democratic overperformance in the South and Utah and not with California and New York voting solidly red. If you were even remotely objective you wouldn't object to the South and UT unless you objected to CA and NY as well, since CA and NY flipping is much less likely than it is that UT and parts of the South flip. None of it is likely but the margins in NY and CA for Democrats compared to GOP margins in UT and SC and MS alone make it clear which is more likely. I thought that perhaps you'd learned to stop overestimating how Republican California is after your embarrassing recall prediction fail, but clearly, you've returned to your old self and learned nothing about Californian politics in the process (I should know, being Californian myself, that the state is solidly blue).

This is a trend map, not a margin of victory map!

Dems are still winning NY and CA by 10 or so here.  Reps go back to winning TX by 10 or so.  GA is voting like MD and the rest of the Deep South states are highly competitive.   

Oh. Oh! Well, there are still some things shady about your take - though it makes much more sense now. I can understand ND, IA, OH, WI and probably MI, MN and PA trending rightward, but I don't see why IL and NY would have massive rightward shifts. TX and AZ seem impossible, given explosive growth, demographic change and consequent liberalization in their metropolitan areas being more than enough to reverse the effect of Hispanics trending rightward. NV and NM, while still pretty unlikely, aren't entirely impossible. CA doesn't make much sense but I think I can see a reasonably plausible scenario in which this might actually happen (though it's still less likely than not). Other than all of that, I suppose I pretty much agree with you outside of NJ trending rightward and perhaps one or two other states.

[Schiff for Senate]

Where do you see Idaho going over the next decade? With the trend of Ada County to the left but the strong GOP dominance elsewhere, I don't see Democrats gaining any meaningful power here anytime soon.

ID will trend leftward because of urban and suburban expansion, but remain strongly Republican into the 2030s, just like neighbouring UT.


EDIT: My full map. States in red will trend rightwards over the next decade or so; states in blue will trend leftward; states in purple will stay around the same (won't trend more than a few points in either direction):



EDIT ON PRIOR EDIT: The above map is a swing map, not a trend map, and states in blue have swung leftward while the state in red has swung rightward.

[Schiff for Senate]

Where do you see Idaho going over the next decade? With the trend of Ada County to the left but the strong GOP dominance elsewhere, I don't see Democrats gaining any meaningful power here anytime soon.

ID will trend leftward because of urban and suburban expansion, but remain strongly Republican into the 2030s, just like neighbouring UT.


EDIT: My full map. States in red will trend rightwards over the next decade or so; states in blue will trend leftward; states in purple will stay around the same (won't trend more than a few points in either direction):

You do realize that trend is measured relative to the nation, right? By definition, about an equal amount of states would trend R and D. This is almost a manifestation of all states are trending D meme.

Yeah, you're right. I forgot what 'trend' means and made a swing map. Treat this as a swing map (2020 to 2030s). Of course, if I were to make a trend map, a lot of states would be red, instead of the one red state (IA) on this map. So just ignore this map, or treat it as a swing (not trend) map. My mistake.