NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama still comfortably ahead in New Mexico (user search)
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  NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama still comfortably ahead in New Mexico (search mode)
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Author Topic: NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama still comfortably ahead in New Mexico  (Read 1810 times)
opebo
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« on: October 26, 2012, 03:37:39 PM »

Remember when this state was one of the closest state in the country two years in a row? Good times.

We are witnessing the sinking of that terrible vessel of wrath, the GOP.  Of course it will get resuscitated in some form down the road, but it probably won't be a form that relies 100% on racist white fear.
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opebo
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2012, 08:08:21 AM »

Um, New Mexico was 8% above Obama's national margin in 2008. If we assume a national tie right now, this is Obama +7%, so...

Hispanic state, probably the polls are 2% or so skewed in favore of Romney due to underpolling of Spanish speaking people, maybe even another 2% because PPP doesn't poll cell phones.  could be 58/41 Obama, or anywya 57.5
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opebo
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2012, 11:45:54 AM »

Um, New Mexico was 8% above Obama's national margin in 2008. If we assume a national tie right now, this is Obama +7%, so...

Hispanic state, probably the polls are 2% or so skewed in favore of Romney due to underpolling of Spanish speaking people, maybe even another 2% because PPP doesn't poll cell phones.  could be 58/41 Obama, or anywya 57.5

The 'skewed polls' rhetoric is just as bad coming from the left whatever the inks opebo is as from the right.

I knew someone would atteck me for that particular term.. but what I mean is just that Hispanics tend to be underpolled, thats all.   Anyway the better point would be to suggest that this polls margin should be compared to New Mexico polls from a week or two prior to the 2008 election rather than the results of the election itself.
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