Cities vs. rest of county

[NOVA Green]

Multnomah County, Oregon 2020:


Portland:

Trump:   51,633     (13.4%)        (+70.4% Biden)     +5.4% Biden Swing
Biden:  322,031     (83.8%)
Misc:     10,741      ( 2.8%)
TOTAL:  384,405



Non-Portland:

Trump: 31,090     (39.8%)        (+17.0% Biden)       +5.6% Biden Swing
Biden:  44,415     (56.8%)
Misc:     2,622      ( 3.4%)
TOTAL:  78,127

Multnomah County, Oregon 2016:

Portland:

Trump:   42,649    (12.8%)        (+65.0% HRC)
HRC:  259,753      (77.8%)
Misc:     31,131       (9.3%)
TOTAL:  333,533

Non-Portland:

Trump: 25,305     (38.6%)        (+11.4.% HRC)
HRC:  32,808     (50.0%)
Misc:      7,457     (11.4%)
TOTAL:  65,570  

Interesting Multonomah county suburbs went more Republican than Washington County, any reason why?  Even with Clackamas County, pretty sure Trump got under 40% if you take only the suburban parts as he likely won big in the rural parts thus why overall numbers at 43%.

Mileslunn--- if you are interested in detailed breakdowns of election results in Portland and the "Suburbs", this might be some good introductory reading material, from a 2016 OR GE thread where I explored in extensive detail results from Oregon.

It is not the "end all be all definitive work", but it does cover and crunch down numbers for practically every part of Oregon in fairly extensive levels of detail. (I am currently working a 2020 version, but am awaiting final results for many places before pursuing it further).

Just click on the directory and get hyperlinked to some (6) posts involving Clackamas County, (6) posts involving Multnomah County, and (7) posts involving Washington County.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5386692#msg5386692

I am still waiting to update my current 2020 thread, since currently no election results are yet certified in Oregon, so I want to ensure that I can contribute more definitive results for the entire State of Oregon, within a broader historical context and narrative.

NOVA GREEN OR GE 2020 ELECTION MEGATHREAD:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7750271#msg7750271

I am just getting started, and actually my first County Project which I have been working on is one of the most heavily Republican County in Oregon West of the Cascades: Douglas County.

[NOVA Green]

Interesting Multonomah county suburbs went more Republican than Washington County, any reason why?  Even with Clackamas County, pretty sure Trump got under 40% if you take only the suburban parts as he likely won big in the rural parts thus why overall numbers at 43%.

This is probably the norm. Multnomah County suburbs are basically just Gresham--which is pretty WWC and far from Downtown. By contrast, Beaverton/Tigard/Bethany are super educated and actually much closer to the urban core.

Easternmost Portland smoothly transitions into Gresham around 9 miles east of downtown. By contrast, the Washington County suburbs are separated from the downtown core by a low mountain range.

45 didn’t actually lose any support from 2016, although it doesn’t seem like he made super obvious gains with PDX area nonwhites either. The jump from 80s-10s Biden to 70s-20s Biden east of 82nd Ave is similar to what we saw in the Dem primaries.  I think the 53-45 Biden precinct is a relatively White precinct in easternmost Portland?

Thanks khuzifenq!!!

I have effectively ceded the terrain of the Cities (Portland & Metro) to highly qualified posters from Oregon such as yourself, since things have changed over the years and cycles, and perhaps much better equipped to provide "real time" data, since it has been (4) Years since I lived in Portland (Although we still got family up there).



Compare and contrast to political elections:

Multnomah County:

Portland:

2020:   384.4 k TV

DEM:    322.0k      (+270.4k D)     +53.2k DEM GAIN '16-'20)
PUB:      51.6k

2016:  

DEM:    259.8k      (+217.2k D)
PUB:      42.6k

Similar Patterns elsewhere in Metro PDX....  Trump might have gained % margins, but with OR VbM and AVR, just the numbers from PDX alone, were massive considering how these types of raw net vote margin gains dwarfed those of the most heavily Republican Counties in Western Oregon (Douglas and Linn Counties).

[NOVA Green]

Got Franklin County, Ohio

Columbus

Biden 70.3% (260,008 votes)
Trump 27.2% (100,553 votes)

Rest of Franklin County

Biden 54.9% (131,576 votes)
Trump 42.8% (102,601 votes)

So looks like in Ohio, Cuyahoga County suburbs went pretty strongly for Biden although Trump did win a number in the southern part which is very white working class, lots with Italian and Eastern European descent, but got clobbered in the heavily African-American ones, but also lost all the lakeside ones which are more upper middle class, college educated whites.  For Franklin County, also went for Biden but Trump got over 40% in the Franklin County suburbs.  Only Hamilton county suburbs did Trump win and even there it was a lot closer than normal.

So it seems in Ohio, Biden is gaining in suburbs, but rural areas and smaller urban centers are killing the Democrats thus why losing state.

I would strongly caution against creating Municipal Level results from OH at this point as definitive numbers, considering there are still tons of votes out in Ohio (Including Franklin County).

We can treat these as prelim numbers, but when I try to post municipal numbers, I like to at least know that the overwhelming majority of the votes have actually been counted... (Felt comfortable enough will MultCo OR to at least recognize that numbers will likely barely shift once all the final numbers roll in).

[mileslunn]

At this point, yes just rough estimates, but still pretty close to ballpark.  Only state where I would avoid giving municipal numbers for is New York is they have several ballots left to count and they are almost all mail in which break heavily Democrat so there it would show places being more Republican than they are.

[mileslunn]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

[Roll Roons]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

Wow. Wonder how many votes Trump got in the CHAZ/CHOP/whatever the f**k they called it. Also wonder how Kim Wyman did in the city. She got 41% countywide.

[Kamala's side hoe]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

Exhibit #2 for the case against a uniform R swing among urban nonwhites. (Seattle proper is 68% Non-Hispanic White, 15% Asian, and 7% Black per 2019 estimates.) That Trump number is not very indicative of a R swing among Seattle’s Asian or Black residents.

[Skye]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

Wow. Wonder how many votes Trump got in the CHAZ/CHOP/whatever the f**k they called it. Also wonder how Kim Wyman did in the city. She got 41% countywide.

I did the math for Wyman’s 2016 race and she got around 25% of the vote in the city back then. Maybe this year she’s not that far off?

[mileslunn]

Found Wayne County

Detroit:

Biden 94%
Trump 5.1%

Rest of Wayne County

Biden 56.4%
Trump 41.5%

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

California’s SOS website gives this sort of statistic once all of the votes are certified. Search for “Political Districts within Counties”.

I gave the 2018 election as an example, but I know that the same sort of stuff is available for 2016. You’ll have to compare the city you’re interested in to the results of entire county without that city.

[mileslunn]

This one has Tampa vs. Hillsborough county, but only by # no municipal boundaries so if anyone knows the range for Tampa and rest I can calculate from here  https://enr.electionsfl.org/HIL/2772/Reports/ . 

[Left Wing]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

Wow. Wonder how many votes Trump got in the CHAZ/CHOP/whatever the f**k they called it. Also wonder how Kim Wyman did in the city. She got 41% countywide.

CHAZ was literally two blocks, I doubt he got a single vote out of it as it's a small sample size in the most lgbtq neighborhood in the city in one of the most liberal cities in the country.

[mileslunn]

San Diego County I was able to get.  For some vote by mail although very small number, didn't assign but small enough won't change overall numbers.  San Diego actually while a Biden landslide, has pretty decent numbers for Trump for a city its size.  Mind you not a large African-American population like most cities its size and doesn't seem to have as many white liberals as you see in other coastal cities (large military presence there, although Trump not too popular amongst them)

San Diego

Biden: 68.5%
Trump 29.1%

Rest of San Diego County

Biden: 54.2%
Trump 43.5%

[NOVA Green]

San Diego County I was able to get.  For some vote by mail although very small number, didn't assign but small enough won't change overall numbers.  San Diego actually while a Biden landslide, has pretty decent numbers for Trump for a city its size.  Mind you not a large African-American population like most cities its size and doesn't seem to have as many white liberals as you see in other coastal cities (large military presence there, although Trump not too popular amongst them)

San Diego

Biden: 68.5%
Trump 29.1%

Rest of San Diego County

Biden: 54.2%
Trump 43.5%

Again, I would advise against going too far into the weeds in California yet, although it appears that there might be only maybe 10.3k Ballots remaining in San Diego County.

As an "Old Skool" Veteran watcher of California elections, we shouldn't necessarily assume that estimated votes outstanding actually match votes outstanding.

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2020-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf?_ga=2.70659472.1606094788.1605688095-1912808327.1596831506

That being said:

The City of San Diego was 65.9% HRC and 28.0% Trump in 2016   (+37.9% D).

So assuming your numbers are accurate to date (Don't believe you cited a source), this would be something like a +1.5% D swing (Assuming no outstanding ballots are in the City proper).

Regarding San Diego as a City, me and many others are familiar with it from personal and family experience as a sprawling Metro Area (Within City Limits), but also actually traditionally one of the most Republican parts of Southern California going back decades (1980s and 1990s).

It will be interesting to look at San Diego County proper once we get all of the municipal and precinct results tabulated, since it may well either support or provide contrary evidence to some and many of the various generalizations we see floating around on Atlas, as well as among Media Pundits, who are naturally tracking our Atlas updates as Data Mining exercises, because they are a bit too lazy sometimes to do the hard lifting themselves.   

[King of Kensington]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

Affluent suburban Republicanism has collapsed (and Trump is a terrible fit for Mercer Island, Bellevue etc) and Seattle is one of the most left-wing cities in America.

[mileslunn]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

Affluent suburban Republicanism has collapsed (and Trump is a terrible fit for Mercer Island, Bellevue etc) and Seattle is one of the most left-wing cities in America.

His strongest support was on south end of King County not east or north which are more affluent although only major municipality in King County to vote for Trump was Enumclaw.  Eastern part of Pierce County which is semi-rural he won.

Generally speaking wealthy suburbs were ones that saw the hardest swing away from Trump so looks like his tax cuts didn't buy much voter love from well to do.  But a lot are college educated and thus anti-science, conspiracy theories tends to not go too well with this group.  It would be interesting if a Reagan style Republican could still win in these areas or have they changed enough that won't work.

[King of Kensington]

A lot of rich people fear a failed state more than a tax increase.  Plus Biden's tax on the "rich" is only on incomes above $400K and impacts few people.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

Affluent suburban Republicanism has collapsed (and Trump is a terrible fit for Mercer Island, Bellevue etc) and Seattle is one of the most left-wing cities in America.

That's very true, but these internal swings are very interesting. We always talk about Orange/Loudon/Gwinnett because you can see their color change on a map, but the swing in Eastside King County is even more dramatic. Iirc, this area (which could really be its own county) swung something like 50 points left since 2000, which dwarfs swings literally anywhere else on the West Coast. 

[mileslunn]

Harris County I have the following:  Trump did much better here than most city proper.

Houston

Biden: 63.9%
Trump 34.8%

Rest of Harris County

Trump: 49.9%
Biden 48.8%

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, the GOP was pretty strong in Seattle's affluent suburbs into the 1990s.

The last Republican senator was Slade Gorton, who was defeated in 2000.  He was a "never Trumper" that voted for McMullen and supported impeachment.

[mileslunn]

Here is San Antonio and Bexar County.

San Antonio

Biden 61.8%
Trump 36.5%

Bexar County

Biden: 50%
Trump: 47.9%

[mileslunn]

Yeah, the GOP was pretty strong in Seattle's affluent suburbs into the 1990s.

The last Republican senator was Slade Gorton, who was defeated in 2000.  He was a "never Trumper" that voted for McMullen and supported impeachment.

Also had Dave Reichert there, but believe he quit before 2018 midterms and I believe was no fan of Trump.  I think Reagan style conservatism may still have some support in suburbs, but Trump style is quite toxic.  Although going through, it seems in working class suburbs, GOP support largely holding up, its more the upper middle class where the bottom is falling out under.

[Skye]

Here is San Antonio and Bexar County.

San Antonio

Biden 61.8%
Trump 36.5%

Bexar County

Biden: 50%
Trump: 47.9%

So Trump's % in the city remained virtually unchanged from 2016, just like the County itself.

[mileslunn]

Here is San Antonio and Bexar County.

San Antonio

Biden 61.8%
Trump 36.5%

Bexar County

Biden: 50%
Trump: 47.9%

So Trump's % in the city remained virtually unchanged from 2016, just like the County itself.

Not a total surprise as city is over 60% Hispanic and considering Trump did better amongst Hispanics in 2020 than 2016, my guess is Biden gained amongst non-Hispanic whites, but that was cancelled out by losses amongst Hispanics.

[mileslunn]

To update still awaiting for following and will update as I find them.

Sacramento vs. rest of Sacramento County
Los Angeles vs. rest of Los Angeles County
Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County
Phoenix vs. rest of Maricopa County
Albuquerque vs. rest of Bernalillo County
Omaha vs. rest of Douglas County
El Paso vs. rest of El Paso County
Austin vs. rest of Travis County
Dallas vs. rest of Dallas County
Indianapolis vs. rest of Marion County (I got breakdown of townships but not by municipality)
Memphis vs. rest of Shelby county
Rochester vs. rest of Monroe County
Charlotte vs. rest of Mecklenburg County
Raleigh vs. rest of Wake County
Jacksonville vs. rest of Duval county
Orlando vs. rest of Orange county
Tampa vs. rest of Hillsborough county
Miami vs. rest of Miami-Dade County