Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Hnv1]

Can someone explain the rise of Otzma Yehudit. How did they go from a minor part of RZP and 1-2% of the vote when running separately to polling at 7 seats on their own?

There were always 5% of the electorate that liked their opinions but:
1. Ben Gvir is good with the (social) media, while former leaders were more awkward.
2. there used to be a bigger crowding out effect in the far right with other parties like Moledet, Herut, Liberman (oh how times have changed) and so on having more appeal. Now most Otzma voters are Sephardic, i.e., people who could vote Shas\Likud and aren't radical settlers so now Ben Gvir has a clean field to swipe them to him.

[Hnv1]

Meretz primary- Galon beats Golan, no surprise there.
For the list:
1. Galon (leader)
2. MK Mosi Raz (very left-wing, would make a union with Labor hard)
3. MK Michal Rozin (unsurprising, strong MK)
4. MK Ali Salalha (Meretz secures minority representation, druze school director)
5. MK Yair Golan (lost the leadership, but strong chance to get in anyway)
6. MK Gaby Leski (another far left activist)
7. Minister Nitzan Horovitz (not great but not as terrible as I thought he might get with all the rumours of weakness- he could get in with a Norwegian law)- Horovitz actually came 5th in the vote but Lasky passes him because of woman reserved spot
8. Mazen Abu Siam (Bedouin activist and city councillor)
9. Umemaya Hamed (an Arab attorney and Meretz member, Meretz gets an Arab woman in their top 10)
10. Adir Badir (Isawi Farij confidant from Kfar Kassem, him coming this low seems like a blow for Farij)
11. Katie Piasetzky (Meretz city councilor in Bat Yam, pretty strong voice there, nearly got into the Knesset this time)

Lasky got more votes than Horowitz.

I wasn’t far off with my prediction
1. Zehava
2. Rozin
3. Golan
4. Salalha
5. Lasky
6. someone new

I missed how Raz became so popular.

Further analysis of RZ and Meretz later

So the two major Ashkenaz parties (well part for UTJ) had primaries yesterday. Both parties' membership are more ideologues so turnout was very high in both (81%).

I'll start with Meretz which I know better. The party's not used to do primaries so the power balance that existed in the party convention was completely broken. Abysmal day for the reds

- Galon won, but not by the 80-20 margin she thought she'd win when she first announced. Golan, however, was a fool. He got 40% of the vote through his bloc in the Kibbutzim but only they voted for him so he finished a miserable 4th. He also failed to move his bloc to vote for the same 4 candidates thus maybe giving him other potential supporters in semi-realistic spots. If Meretz joins a new party he will get a harsh cold shoulder from Galon

- Horowitz as expected dropped heavily, and in the middle of the day he started getting pity votes to save face. Deserved. He was a terrible leader and minister, and was elected leader as a puppet. Good riddance.

- Mossi, the usual black sheep the party mainstream used to hate came first. Quite surprising but it seems that his stock rose during the past year (and as I suspect he also enjoyed a lot of support with the Arab "voters"). Gaby followed with an impressive performance signaling Meretz voters want the party to show more backbone in future coalitions.

- The reds tanked out. Slalaha had his own Druze voters so he managed to float, but the two lads they tried pushing up completely failed. After 16 years the kingmakers do not have a single prince.

-Zaki, Oppenheimer and other nobodies are way behind. good useless gits

- There are 4 Arab representatives in the top 10.

results without gender balance:
1. Galon
2. Raz (44%)
3. Rozin (42%)
4. Slalha (39%)
5. Golan (38.5%)
6. Lasky (31.9%)
7. Horwitz (23.55%)
8 Abu Siam (21.5%)
9. Bader (19.35%)
10. Shechter (19.17%)
11. Oppenheimer (17.9%)
12. Zaki (17.6%)
13. Bichovski (16.6%)
14. Hamed (14.7%)
15. Piaski (13.9%)


About ZR. It's quite remarkable how they managed to upgrade the level of horridness in what was already a horrible party. I would note that neither Soffer or Strock are Smotric's people, so he got a message from voters that he's not an undisputed leader like Bibi. Rotman's place shows that the anti-SC shtick is a twitter phenomenon rather than an actual issue driving the hardcore rightwing voters. They'd happily join Likud in taking down the SC but their are interests are still in the settlements and religious matters.  

[DavidB.]

So basically the settlers who used to vote Bennett/Shaked a couple of years ago are now going to vote for Smotrich, and Mizrahi voters who used to vote Shas/Likud would push Otzma over the threshold. Interesting. But I wonder how much of that virtual Otzma support will actually transfer to actual votes on election day when Bibi goes all in during the last week of the elections. I would imagine this type of voter is extremely open to shifting to Bibi when he is all over the news, says the country is under fire because the left could take over, that only a big Bibi victory could prevent this, that it's extremely close, etc.

[Hnv1]

So basically the settlers who used to vote Bennett/Shaked a couple of years ago are now going to vote for Smotrich, and Mizrahi voters who used to vote Shas/Likud would push Otzma over the threshold. Interesting. But I wonder how much of that virtual Otzma support will actually transfer to actual votes on election day when Bibi goes all in during the last week of the elections. I would imagine this type of voter is extremely open to shifting to Bibi when he is all over the news, says the country is under fire because the left could take over, that only a big Bibi victory could prevent this, that it's extremely close, etc.

I think he's safe running alone. There's no other Johnny big mouth running on the far right and Bibi really has no reason to squeeze voters as he's guaranteed to have the biggest party. Moreover, it seems that Otzma can get Sephardi nonvoters to turn out to vote. Just like the good old days when the junkies in South Tel Aviv voted Khana.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Meretz got 6 seats on a recent poll, which is the first time they've gotten that high since about a year (?) ago.

[Hnv1]

Meretz got 6 seats on a recent poll, which is the first time they've gotten that high since about a year (?) ago.

the notorious post-primaries bump. ZR on the other hand were below the threshold in one poll yesterday.

Anyhow, until the lists are finalized (September 15) the polls are even less meaningful than usual

[warandwar]

Can someone explain the rise of Otzma Yehudit. How did they go from a minor part of RZP and 1-2% of the vote when running separately to polling at 7 seats on their own?

There were always 5% of the electorate that liked their opinions but:
1. Ben Gvir is good with the (social) media, while former leaders were more awkward.
2. there used to be a bigger crowding out effect in the far right with other parties like Moledet, Herut, Liberman (oh how times have changed) and so on having more appeal. Now most Otzma voters are Sephardic, i.e., people who could vote Shas\Likud and aren't radical settlers so now Ben Gvir has a clean field to swipe them to him.

Wonder what you think about the differences between Ben Gvir and Kahane's appeals.

[Hnv1]

Can someone explain the rise of Otzma Yehudit. How did they go from a minor part of RZP and 1-2% of the vote when running separately to polling at 7 seats on their own?

There were always 5% of the electorate that liked their opinions but:
1. Ben Gvir is good with the (social) media, while former leaders were more awkward.
2. there used to be a bigger crowding out effect in the far right with other parties like Moledet, Herut, Liberman (oh how times have changed) and so on having more appeal. Now most Otzma voters are Sephardic, i.e., people who could vote Shas\Likud and aren't radical settlers so now Ben Gvir has a clean field to swipe them to him.

Wonder what you think about the differences between Ben Gvir and Kahane's appeals.

Kahane was a weirdo. Even among the far right back then he was considered bizarre. He set up shop between junkies and the poor in south Tel Aviv and in an era with no threshold that was enough to see him through. His thick accent and KKK approach was pretty outlandish. The settlers didn’t fancy him and were resolute in not collaborating. Hi performance in 1977/1981 was poor dove worked at poor Sephardi areas to get one seat, and even that seat he got because the SC did his campaign by disqualifying and then allowing him to run.

Ben Gvir is more dogwhistle than blunt like his master. Israel also changed a lot. The fringe of the Haredi society is much larger now (ironically this is because of their political success since 1977). Also nationalism is much more ripe in the Israel periphery. post second intifada Israel is a different place.
There’s also this segment of first time voters still buzzing with military attitudes (where they were janitors and drivers) that also fancy his Johnny big bad kind of talk

[DavidB.]

Apparently RZ and Otzma are running together after all - Ben Gvir published a statement with this message.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Apparently RZ and Otzma are running together after all - Ben Gvir published a statement with this message.

Likely list:
1. Smotrich
2. Ben Gvir
3. Ofir Sofer (RZ)
4. Orit Strook (RZ)
5. Yitzhak Weisserlof (Kahanist)
6. Simcha Rotman (RZ)
7. Kahanist
8. Michal Waldinger (RZ)
9. Kahanist
10. Kahanist
11. Offered to Noam (single issue homophobes)

[Angel of Death]

Apparently RZ and Otzma are running together after all - Ben Gvir published a statement with this message.

Likely list:
1. Smotrich
2. Ben Gvir
3. Ofir Sofer (RZ)
4. Orit Strook (RZ)
5. Yitzhak Weisserlof (Kahanist)
6. Simcha Rotman (RZ)
7. Kahanist
8. Michal Waldinger (RZ)
9. Kahanist
10. Kahanist
11. Offered to Noam (single issue homophobes)

If anything, this looks like a raw deal, considering that Otzma Yehudit has actually been doing better than the Religious Zionists in all recent polls where they've been polled separately, with the latter actually not even making it in in one poll.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Apparently RZ and Otzma are running together after all - Ben Gvir published a statement with this message.

Likely list:
1. Smotrich
2. Ben Gvir
3. Ofir Sofer (RZ)
4. Orit Strook (RZ)
5. Yitzhak Weisserlof (Kahanist)
6. Simcha Rotman (RZ)
7. Kahanist
8. Michal Waldinger (RZ)
9. Kahanist
10. Kahanist
11. Offered to Noam (single issue homophobes)

If anything, this looks like a raw deal, considering that Otzma Yehudit has actually been doing better than the Religious Zionists in all recent polls where they've been polled separately, with the latter actually not even making it in in one poll.

More traditional parties and leaders are often given leeway in deals with insurgents - ie Rafi Peretz and Jewish Home being given the leadership of the United Right Wing Parties in 2019 despite having tiny electoral power compared to Smotrich, Bennet and Shaked being given leadership of Yamina when it included Jewish Home and National Union despite not passing the threshold. The reasons are either that they're assumed to have a more solid base, or would generate less hostility, or have huge ego and won't agree to anything else.

[Hnv1]

Apparently RZ and Otzma are running together after all - Ben Gvir published a statement with this message.

Likely list:
1. Smotrich
2. Ben Gvir
3. Ofir Sofer (RZ)
4. Orit Strook (RZ)
5. Yitzhak Weisserlof (Kahanist)
6. Simcha Rotman (RZ)
7. Kahanist
8. Michal Waldinger (RZ)
9. Kahanist
10. Kahanist
11. Offered to Noam (single issue homophobes)

If anything, this looks like a raw deal, considering that Otzma Yehudit has actually been doing better than the Religious Zionists in all recent polls where they've been polled separately, with the latter actually not even making it in in one poll.

Ben Gvir doesn’t have money, this way he puts his foot through the doors with substantial party financing in the future.
Bibi and Smotric are buying the rope with which he’ll strangle them in the future

[Coldstream]

Apparently RZ and Otzma are running together after all - Ben Gvir published a statement with this message.

Likely list:
1. Smotrich
2. Ben Gvir
3. Ofir Sofer (RZ)
4. Orit Strook (RZ)
5. Yitzhak Weisserlof (Kahanist)
6. Simcha Rotman (RZ)
7. Kahanist
8. Michal Waldinger (RZ)
9. Kahanist
10. Kahanist
11. Offered to Noam (single issue homophobes)

If anything, this looks like a raw deal, considering that Otzma Yehudit has actually been doing better than the Religious Zionists in all recent polls where they've been polled separately, with the latter actually not even making it in in one poll.

Ben Gvir doesn’t have money, this way he puts his foot through the doors with substantial party financing in the future.
Bibi and Smotric are buying the rope with which he’ll strangle them in the future

Yeah Smotrich seems like the kind of guy whose happy with 7-8 seats just influencing the government. Ben Gvir doesn’t seem like he’ll settle for anything less than the top job long term.

[Hnv1]

I would also note that RZ and Otzma's value is always higher "pre money". RZ (basically Tkuma) always ran with other parties, and parasitic on their supporters base. In reality, there aren't that many Hardali in Israel and Smotric's personal popularity with hard right voters masks his party terrible appeal.

Otzma is a serial above the threshold before and under after the election when running alone (2006, 2013, 2019). The only times they got someone in was in a large union (NU in 2009 and recently in RZ), and even with broad unions they failed (2003, 2015).
If Ben Gvir doesn't capitalize on the zenith of his popularity to make his movement of plonkers into a stable party they might never will.

[jaymichaud]

God I hope RZP underperforms heavily in the same way Bennett and Shaked always used to. World politics doesn't need more apes like them in power.

[Comrade Funk]

At least the right-wing won't feel uncomfortable taking off the mask when it comes to racism and apartheid.

[GALeftist]

At least the right-wing won't feel uncomfortable taking off the mask when it comes to racism and apartheid.

Extremely blackpilling.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

At least the right-wing won't feel uncomfortable taking off the mask when it comes to racism and apartheid.

Extremely blackpilling.

I wonder if the incessant terrorist attacks and total failure of the left's economic policies could have anything to do with this.

[Comrade Funk]

At least the right-wing won't feel uncomfortable taking off the mask when it comes to racism and apartheid.

Extremely blackpilling.

I wonder if the incessant terrorist attacks and total failure of the left's economic policies could have anything to do with this.

Well I guess that settles that. Settlements, kahanism, yearly wars, and apartheid are clearly the solutions! As long as America ignores it, I suppose it's technically okay.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

At least the right-wing won't feel uncomfortable taking off the mask when it comes to racism and apartheid.

Extremely blackpilling.

I wonder if the incessant terrorist attacks and total failure of the left's economic policies could have anything to do with this.

Well I guess that settles that. Settlements, kahanism, yearly wars, and apartheid are clearly the solutions! As long as America ignores it, I suppose it's technically okay.

Where does this poll indicate support of apartheid? All I see is people defining as right wing.

[America Needs R'hllor]

At least the right-wing won't feel uncomfortable taking off the mask when it comes to racism and apartheid.

Extremely blackpilling.

I wonder if the incessant terrorist attacks and total failure of the left's economic policies could have anything to do with this.

There is no total failure of the left's economic policies to speak of, and most Israelis support most of these policies.

Of course, the terrorist attacks are a big reason for this. Arafat could've chosen partnership, but he chose terror and now his people (and mine, ultimately) are paying. But it's still true that this is an extremely toxic and unhealthy political environment.

Where does this poll indicate support of apartheid? All I see is people defining as right wing.

While polling is unclear about support for the two state solution, safe to say the majority of these 60% oppose it. Since I assume they don't support a binational state, support for apartheid is the logical conclusion. Israelis are very good at keeping their eyes shut, but this is the truth.

[MaxQue]

At least the right-wing won't feel uncomfortable taking off the mask when it comes to racism and apartheid.

Extremely blackpilling.

I wonder if the incessant terrorist attacks and total failure of the left's economic policies could have anything to do with this.

There is no total failure of the left's economic policies to speak of, and most Israelis support most of these policies.

Of course, the terrorist attacks are a big reason for this. Arafat could've chosen partnership, but he chose terror and now his people (and mine, ultimately) are paying. But it's still true that this is an extremely toxic and unhealthy political environment.

Where does this poll indicate support of apartheid? All I see is people defining as right wing.

While polling is unclear about support for the two state solution, safe to say the majority of these 60% oppose it. Since I assume they don't support a binational state, support for apartheid is the logical conclusion. Israelis are very good at keeping their eyes shut, but this is the truth.

It would have not nothing as neither side chose partnership. Palestine chose terror, Israel chose military domination.

[America Needs R'hllor]

It would have not nothing as neither side chose partnership. Palestine chose terror, Israel chose military domination.

Right now, for sure. There were historical instances when Israel presented a hand and there was a possibility of an agreement with it.

Anyway, there's reportedtrouble within Otzma as Gopstein and Marzel claim Ben Gvir moderated. Personally, this sounds like an obvious strategy by Ben Gvir to me. Get your buddies who are deeply unpopular to say this, and broaden your appeal a few days after calling for deportations of leftists.

[GALeftist]

Don't want to derail the thread, but while I agree that Palestinian leadership has made many criminally counterproductive moves throughout its history, worth noting that the median Palestinian was about to turn 5 when the last Palestinian election was held. Hard for me to hold all of them accountable for their government's failures, but they continue to pay a steep price.