New Russia-Ukraine tensions

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Somewhere in Saint Petersburg, Russian Bear takes a break from his job because he’s getting carpal tunnel syndrome vis-a-vis that picture of shirtless Putin.

Tankies prepare their justifications for Russian actions ahead of time in their honored copy and paste tradition.

Good luck, Ukraine.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

7serig is most likely an actual bot with the idiocy I'm reading here. Again, this is all a nothing burger.

https://www.osce.org/files/2021-04-03%20Daily%20Report_ENG%20AMENDED.pdf?itok=80263

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1380548008647987204

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

At this point it doesn't seem like a simple show of force meant to discourage the Ukrainians from taking any actions in the Donbass in the Summer. Moving all this manpower, armor, equipment, and ships (including landing craft) isn't cheap. But why would the Kremlin publicly broadcast all these troop movements if they were planning an actual attack? Isn't it basic military logic to avoid letting your enemies know that you are massing troops and equipment in areas that would be necessary for an offensive attack?

The primary purpose of these moves is political, not military, so they need to be public.

FWIW, it was Ukraine who was first to "uncover" the troop movements.

If I recall correctly the order was:
Ukrainian Media covers + Ukraine officials starts complaining about it > NyT article > Kreml acknowledges the news rapports > Russians (TV) MSM starts to cover it.


May be, 7sergi9 and other Ukrainian posters has a better memory of the timeline.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Armed conflict with such a well-armed nation over the already separatist-held areas would not be worth it. Those territories are, de facto already lost.

Not only they lost it physically, but also mentally and politically. There is actually a sizable and vocal share of Ukrainians (esp in West) who think that a lot of people who lives there a sort of traitors or just stupid old "Homo Sovieticus" who need to die out. In fact, some think something like this in more broadly term of East Ukraine's population. A bit like in US (but worse) - "how can they still vote for Trump pro-Russian parties after all this ?!!!1111"


I don't believe, that we'll annex Donbass, but I'm very interested to hear what Putin has to say today (now). It was reported, it's be big and very important. Recognize Donbass? Something else? I don't know. But, at the end, like one of the greatest Russians ever - Anton Pavlovich Chekhov - said: if you put the gun on the wall if the first act, it has to be used in last one; otherwise don't put it there  

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

If someone wants to follow (in English)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Nuh, nothing special re: Foreign Policy. Biggest thing was probably to repeat Lukoshenko's cringe theory that there was a coup against him. Wounder what Putin get in return for this crazy hoax.

Blah blah, red lines. Payback will be tough and fast (alluding Ukraine?).

Not quite Chekhov, but was quoting Kipling about that there are always Tabaquies around Shere Khan. Alluding US being Shere Khan and Poland/Baltics/UK/EU Tabaquies. Is Putin Akela, the Lone Wolf? Then who's Mowgli? Or is USSR/Russia of 90th Akela and Putin is Mowgli?  Questions, questions...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

MMM...
https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1384949824047431685?s=20

Bombing Kiev? What?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Perhaps, the true reason for Russia-Ukraine tensions.


https://twitter.com/AndrewKramerNYT/status/1391479091711381507


Where Ukrainians Are Preparing for All-Out War With Russia
A dried-up canal running from Ukraine into Russian-occupied Crimea is emerging as one of Europe’s main flash points.

In Crimea, after a major drought last year, the water shortage has become so dire that Russian officials have started to evoke the specter of mass death — though warnings of humanitarian catastrophe are contradicted by Russian officials’ assurances that even tourists to Crimea will not go thirsty.

Blocking the canal, a senior official in the de facto Russian government controlling Crimea said in February, represented “an attempt to destroy us as a people, an attempt at mass murder and genocide.” Moscow has pledged to spend $670 million to address the water shortage, but this year reservoirs have been running dry and water is being rationed.

Ukrainian officials are unmoved. Under the Geneva Convention, they say, it is Russia’s responsibility as an occupying power to provide water, and they add that sufficient underground aquifers exist to provide for the population. The Kremlin says that Crimea willfully joined Russia in 2014, aided by Russian troops, after the pro-Western revolution in Kyiv; nearly every government in the world still considers Crimea to be part of Ukraine.

“No water for Crimea until de-occupation,” said Anton Korynevych, the representative for Crimea of President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, spelling out government policy. “Period.”

Mr. Zelensky checked Ukrainian troops’ readiness in a visit to the trenches at the Crimean border last month. Even though Russian troops are withdrawing, he warned, Ukraine must be prepared for them to return at “any moment.” In Washington, senior American officials believe that an incursion to secure the water supply remains a real threat, though the costs and difficulty of such a move appear to have been sufficient to dissuade Russia for now.