Predict Tammy Baldwin's margin of victory.

[SnowLabrador]

Considering that even with many low-propensity Republicans staying home, Ron Johnson was still able to get a 1-point victory, I don't think Baldwin is going to win a blowout like some here think. I have Trump winning Wisconsin by 2 or 3 points, so I'll say Baldwin +1 (since her crossover appeal is likely somewhat overstated). Still, a win is a win.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Hovde is a train wreck, he’s running an Oz-like campaign

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think that she'll have enough votes to win as she's likely to run ahead of Biden, although Trump being on the top of the ballot is likely to harm her compared to her previous runs. I voted for winning by <2 points as a result.

[Miked0920]

Id say Baldwin wins by +3 anywhere from 1-5 points.

[Mr. Smith]

Baldwin by 2-3, but only if Trump wins by 2016 margins or less, still an outside chance of both races being the tipping point...again.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think she could actually go down this year. If Trump wins Wisconsin even narrowly, Baldwin has close to zero crossover appeal the same way Brown or Casey do. Its possible Hovde even outruns Baldwin. He will probably do better in places like WOW than her.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think she could actually go down this year. If Trump wins Wisconsin even narrowly, Baldwin has close to zero crossover appeal the same way Brown or Casey do. Its possible Hovde even outruns Baldwin. He will probably do better in places like WOW than her.

She won 2012/18 and Trump isn't winning WI

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think she could actually go down this year. If Trump wins Wisconsin even narrowly, Baldwin has close to zero crossover appeal the same way Brown or Casey do. Its possible Hovde even outruns Baldwin. He will probably do better in places like WOW than her.

She has some based on 2018 but agree not in the same magnitude.

Some of it is also downballot lag in certain areas of rural WI, mainly driftless (but then you also have downballot lag favoring Hodve in WOW).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think she could actually go down this year. If Trump wins Wisconsin even narrowly, Baldwin has close to zero crossover appeal the same way Brown or Casey do. Its possible Hovde even outruns Baldwin. He will probably do better in places like WOW than her.

She has some based on 2018 but agree not in the same magnitude.

Some of it is also downballot lag in certain areas of rural WI, mainly driftless (but then you also have downballot lag favoring Hodve in WOW).

The thing with 2018 though is the GOP completely triaged that race. She ran against a virtually nonexistent campaign as Republicans weren't even targeting Ohio seriously that year.

[Xing]

Considering that she overperformed Evers by 10 in her most recent race, I don't think it's accurate at all to say that she has "no crossover appeal." Crossover appeal is not based solely on ideology. I obviously don't think she'll overperform Biden by 10, but I do think she will by 3-5%, which will very likely be enough to pull out a win unless Democrats are having a really atrocious night. Baldwin +4 is my current guess.

[coloradocowboi]

A lot of people are being really presumptuous here about Trump’s chances in WI. They are 50-50 at best. And Hovde literally can’t win without Trump winning by at least a few points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Baldwin+4.

[MarkD]

Considering how weak the GOP field is, she'll probably win by a margin nearly as big as in 2018, so about 10 points -- 54 to 44 to 2.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

4)6 pts it's exaggerated even the😂 Trump numbers

[xavier110]

2-4.

[Sir Mohamed]

Around 5 pts., 52-47%.

[walleye26]

About 5 points would sound correct. To all the people here saying she has “no crossover appeal” you have no idea what you’re talking about. I hunt a lot and talk/read/interact with a lot of conservative rural Republicans, and I have yet to hear angry words toward her. Some say they won’t vote for her, but they don’t hate her. A lot of hunting publications I read talk about how helpful she’s been to farm and hunting interests. My mother in law works for a large cheese plant in Fond du Lac county (deeply red) and the owners have been very appreciative of Tammy’s help when things like EU trademarks, farm bills, etc, show up. Tammy has a great relationship with rural, working class folks. She tours cheese, dairy, and manufacturing plants every chance she gets.

If she does lose, it’ll be because Trump is winning nationally by big numbers.

[Schiff for Senate]

Voted Baldwin+2-4. A performance similar to Evers 2022 would not surprise me whatsoever, and this is not going to be the squeaker or GOP flip that many people seem to think it will be.

I think she could actually go down this year. If Trump wins Wisconsin even narrowly, Baldwin has close to zero crossover appeal the same way Brown or Casey do. Its possible Hovde even outruns Baldwin. He will probably do better in places like WOW than her.

You mean, outruns Trump and performs better than Trump in WOW. Beating a Democrat in WOW is really no great feat lmfao.

[Schiff for Senate]

Considering that she overperformed Evers by 10 in her most recent race, I don't think it's accurate at all to say that she has "no crossover appeal." Crossover appeal is not based solely on ideology. I obviously don't think she'll overperform Biden by 10, but I do think she will by 3-5%, which will very likely be enough to pull out a win unless Democrats are having a really atrocious night. Baldwin +4 is my current guess.

To be fair, Walker (a GOP titan who beat back a recall and won 3 straight elections with relative ease) was an infinitely stronger candidate than Vukmir (literally who?).

I think that explains the 10 point overperformance more than anything else, more than Baldwin inherently being a stronger candidate than Evers (I think she will perform similarly to his 2022 performance).

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

+8

[TDAS04]

If Biden wins WI by roughly 1 point, Baldwin’s margin of victory is likely within the 2-4 range.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden wins WI by roughly 1 point, Baldwin’s margin of victory is likely within the 2-4 range.

Biden isn't winning WI by 1 pt

[President Johnson]

Considering how weak the GOP field is, she'll probably win by a margin nearly as big as in 2018, so about 10 points -- 54 to 44 to 2.

Polarization and the presidential ballot will almost certainly guarantee any candidate with an (R) at least 45-46% of the vote, I think. And if that was indeed the result, by how much would Biden win Wisconsin then?

[MarkD]

Considering how weak the GOP field is, she'll probably win by a margin nearly as big as in 2018, so about 10 points -- 54 to 44 to 2.

Polarization and the presidential ballot will almost certainly guarantee any candidate with an (R) at least 45-46% of the vote, I think. And if that was indeed the result, by how much would Biden win Wisconsin then?

By "polarization," do you mean that it is virtually impossible to imagine a significant number of voters voting something other than a straight party ticket? Virtually impossible to imagine several percentage points of Wisconsin voters voting for both Trump and Baldwin? That virtually 100% of the Wisconsin voters who vote for Trump will also vote for the Republican who Trump endorsed? I don't accept that those things are always the case, so I can surmise that even if Biden wins Wisconsin by 2 points, Baldwin could win by a bigger margin, with tens of thousands of voters voting for both Baldwin and Trump, because they aren't impressed with Hovde's campaign, and Trump's endorsement does not always impress 100% of his voters.