Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

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Dems won Washoe for the 5th straight day. Only by 85 votes, but I don't remember them consistently winning this county the last couple cycles.

This has been the biggest bright spot for Rosen so far

The only problem is that with absentees, it was a wash (Republicans gained a whopping 4 votes, actually.) Looking at the 2016 results, Douglas is the biggest concern, and Democrats should hope that the margin either narrows, or that turnout goes down (or that Rosen is doing better among Independents than Clinton did.) I'll be eager to see what Clark looks like today, but a similar win as yesterday (10% or so) should allow Democrats to narrowly win the day.

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https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1055322364718641152

Democrats add another 2300 votes to their #ClarkFirewall.

Not bad, this will probably bring the overall vote total to a draw or slight Democratic lead for the day. But hopefully Democrats can get over 10% in Clark by the end, since that's just about what they need to feel confident about winning.

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It's funny that people are making the assumption that independents are going to give Heller the same margin they gave Trump when independents pretty much everywhere have swung D since 2016, sometimes massively.

There's only the fact that Ralston himself doubts that Republicans will end up getting the same margins in the rurals as Trump did. While I was a little worried on Monday, since Clark was looking pretty bad relative to registration numbers, it's been better the past two days, and if it holds up, I'll feel pretty good about Rosen's chances.

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As long as Democrats keep adding about 2,000 to their lead in Clark each day I'll be happy. Also I imagine this next weekend is going to be big.

Yeah, there's also often a late push for Democrats in Clark near the end of the early voting period. Right now, it's a little closer than I would like (we'll see what happens), but I'd rather be Rosen than Heller.

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Current D lead in Clark (so called firewall) is 12,5k

Current statewide lead 4400 but it will come down after absentees from Nye are distributed and when they update other rurals still missing from yesterday (most notably Nye and Lyon).

Numbers to hit according to Ralston are 35k and 15k

I'm thinking that Rs could win the day today in Washoe.

...wait, yesterday it was 4200 before the rurals and then the rurals brought it down to like the mid 3000s. If today is 4400 before the rurals it basically means Democrats' lead is basically unchanged. And unchanged in raw terms means it shrunk in % terms. This is very, very concerning honestly.

Most rurals are in, but two solid counties aren't yet. But basicaly with this turnout in the rurals and absentees that are coming, almost all Clark lead is erased. Especialy because Dems didn't win Washoe yesterday. Dems will have an edge I think if we count only yesterdays votes but not by much. Also absentees are updated in a weird way, like randomly, not at the end of the day always so it's not easy to follow it day by day.

In the meantime while I was typing Lyon county did came in and almost all rurals are now in, maybe there will be around 100-200 votes for Rs from Nye and the lead is now 3910. So take 100,200 more from that and you have it around 3700. Also not in the count are those mistery as Ralston call it absentees from Nye where are 1700 absentees which will break heavily Republican when they designate it so total advantage for Dems is more probably around 3200 max.

Actually, the mystery Nye absentees are in, 400+ GOP, so the overall statewide advantage is 3.3K for the Democrats.

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Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Chill. They're still ahead and treading water. If they end up behind statewide, then maybe it'll be time to worry.

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While everyone was freaking out about the "Dems in disarray" in Nevada because they're not leading by enough, Democrats gained a couple hundred votes thanks to absentees in Clark. Statewide lead is 3.4K. We'll see if they get to 15K statewide, but the way Independents have been voting this year, I'm not sure they'll need to.

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While everyone was freaking out about the "Dems in disarray" in Nevada because they're not leading by enough, Democrats gained a couple hundred votes thanks to absentees in Clark. Statewide lead is 3.4K. We'll see if they get to 15K statewide, but the way Independents have been voting this year, I'm not sure they'll need to.

Maybe I'm the idiot and am missing something incredibly obvious here

Did you forget about his Incumbency™?

Anyway, while many have said that 2010 isn't a good comparison, and perhaps it's not the best one, it does merit mention that Democrats lost the first week of early voting by about 100 votes in 2010, thanks to a 2,000 vote loss in Washoe, and a lackluster performance in Clark. They won the next week, but only by 7,000 votes, and still lost in Washoe. It stands to reason that Heller could do better among Independents than Sharron Angle, but I think people assuming that anyone with a warm body could have beaten Reid in 2010 is mistaken.

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To respond to bilaps, I've acknowledged that the numbers aren't looking as rosy for Democrats as they did on Saturday, I'm just saying that while Rosen isn't looking like she'll win by 10, I'd still rather be her than Heller. Anyone who thought that breakdown by party ID alone would suggest a Democratic wave was engaging in some pretty wishful thinking. If there is a blue tsunami (big if) it's probably because Independents are breaking heavily for Democrats and there's some crossover voting. I wouldn't bet on that, but that was always going to be necessary for a 60+ seat tsunami for the Democrats.

Anyway, more Clark absentees are in, Democrats gained about 100 more, and are now just shy of a 3.5K lead statewide. Hopefully we'll get a Clark turnout update in about an hour or so.

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Apparently, turnout in Clark is down slightly (cue the "Dems in disarrary" crowd), being at 15K at 3 PM. Should probably still crack 20K, but we're probably looking at 20-22K, rather than 24-25K.

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Some rurals have reported, and Republicans gained about 1.1K counting absentees, but that’s a little less than previous days, since turnout is lower than previous days (like in Clark.) If Washoe is tied and Clark is about a 10-point win for Democrats, we’re probably looking at another draw. We’ll see.

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Yeah, Democrats need a pretty good day in Clark for today not to be a bad day for them, but assuming they get 2K, we're probably not going to see that much of a gain for Republicans. It is frustrating to see that so many people are excited to give Trump more rubber stamps, but that's generally how the cult mentality works.

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Democrats won by almost exactly the same margin in Clark, 44.7-35.1, a net gain of 2.2K votes. Probably not quite enough to offset the EV/absentee vote from the rurals and Washoe, but enough to avoid losing much ground. They'll probably still end up above 3K ahead statewide once all of the rurals are in.

I'd say the best hope for Democrats is if it turns out like 2010, where Democrats get a really strong late push, and run up the margin in Clark, while keeping Washoe to a tie.

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Ralston thinks the Dems are on pace to hit the firewall he thinks they need.

Where did he say that? On his blog he say that it looks like the firewall be around 30k which will make Republicans happy.

He said today that a firewall of 30K should make Democrats feel “comfortable”, while 35K should make them feel “good.” Neither is a guarantee that they’ll win, and it also probably depends on what happens in other counties.

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Ralston thinks the Dems are on pace to hit the firewall he thinks they need.

Where did he say that? On his blog he say that it looks like the firewall be around 30k which will make Republicans happy.

He said today that a firewall of 30K should make Democrats feel “comfortable”, while 35K should make them feel “good.” Neither is a guarantee that they’ll win, and it also probably depends on what happens in other counties.

If that's true he's moving the goalposts. This isn't what he said couple days ago or what I read this morning on his blog.

I didn’t see his most recent post. He mentioned the numbers I brought up last night. He said that 30K would make Republicans satisfied with their efforts, but that no one could feel confident. I guess he’s also not completely sure what will happen. All we can say for sure is that Democrats got a lead over the weekend, and it’s been largely a draw since then, with Republicans perhaps gaining a few hundred votes.

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If Heller ends up winning in a Democratic wave, maybe Atlas meme magic does work, after all.

I won't believe it unless Heller wins *and* Barb's vaunted oppo research reveals Wexton is a pedophile.

Tester would also have to win in a landslide.

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NV is really the only state where I'm paying attention to early voting. In TX, it's pretty clear from the polls that Beto is going to need a miracle to actually beat Cruz, and early voting reports don't change that, in my mind.

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Clark looks to be over 25,000 today.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1055983648397127681

The margin will be key, since that could be anywhere from adding 2K to possibly even 4K (if turnout pushes 30K) to the "firewall." Hopefully we'll hear about Washoe soon as well.

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Democrats win the Washoe early vote (again) by 45 votes.

However, mail-in/absentees cut into that and then some yet again. The GOP ultimately take the combined Washoe in-person/mail by a 3038-2949 margin, with 1460 NPA.

That means a roughly 40.7-39.6 GOP day. Not great, but I'm pretty sure it is better than yesterday and it's still close in Washoe.

Much better than yesterday, since they lost the combined vote in Washoe by 500-600.

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The NV SOS page hasn't updated any other counties for today. Looks like we'll have to wait for a while before we get anything other than Washoe.

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Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

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Rural turnout looks to have dropped considerably today. As a result, Democrats gained to their statewide lead. While Carson City it yet to report (and a few rural counties still haven't reported from Thursday), so Republican may gain a couple hundred more votes when everything is in, Democrats are up about 4.7K statewide, and 18K in Clark.

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Most of the Week 1 is in from Nevada, so it's a little easier now to compare it to the Week 1 vote from 2016. Everyone claims that, unlike other state, the Nevada early vote really is predictive. Here's what it looks like in aggregate right now compared to 2016:

Week 1, 2018

Democratic: 42.22% - 112,517
Republican: 38.84% - 103,496
Other: 18.94% - 50,472

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950

Week 1, 2016

Democratic: 44.50% - 151,020
Republican: 35.84% - 121,651
Other: 66,728

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

The gap between registered Republicans and Democrats is actually smaller this year, which might seem counterintuitive. This race will clearly come down to independents. And before everyone automatically assumes they'll break for Rosen, it's worth noting that every recent poll has shown Heller leading among that group.

I still say it's a textbook tossup.

Ralston has cautioned against comparing turnout this year to 2016 (apples to oranges), since it's a midterm. In 2016, Democrats did better in the first week, but it's usually the opposite in midterms.

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Most of the Week 1 is in from Nevada, so it's a little easier now to compare it to the Week 1 vote from 2016. Everyone claims that, unlike other state, the Nevada early vote really is predictive. Here's what it looks like in aggregate right now compared to 2016:

Week 1, 2018

Democratic: 42.22% - 112,517
Republican: 38.84% - 103,496
Other: 18.94% - 50,472

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950

Week 1, 2016

Democratic: 44.50% - 151,020
Republican: 35.84% - 121,651
Other: 66,728

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

The gap between registered Republicans and Democrats is actually smaller this year, which might seem counterintuitive. This race will clearly come down to independents. And before everyone automatically assumes they'll break for Rosen, it's worth noting that every recent poll has shown Heller leading among that group.

I still say it's a textbook tossup.

Actually everyone seems to be assuming indies are going big for Heller. Because if they split evenly, then Rosen wins easily.

People are also assuming that a Republicans will win the ED vote massively, which at the very least isn’t a safe assumption.

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Looks like a few rurals are already reporting today. Unless those numbers are imcomplete (which is my guess), turnout is way down there. Surprised that we don't have any turnout reports from Clark yet.