Latino Vote Realignment (CA)

[THG]

No no no, according to Atlas trends only favor Democrats. You're doing this all wrong!

[THG]

Can we please wait until >95% of the votes are in to establish any basis for 'granular' analysis like that? This goes for both sides btw, not just OP: Newsom's margin keeps narrowing as more of the election-day vote keeps coming in (not unlike 2020), so places like San Bernandino/Riverside could still easily end up flipping. Kind of hilarious to make bold claims about Latinos shifting D without Trump on the ballot when only 40% of the vote in Imperial County is in and the recall is already doing two points better than Trump/slightly better than Cox there.

But not enough votes have been counted to run the conclusive analyses that political analysts are hungry for, including: At what levels did Latino voters and young people turn out? What happened in rural areas? And what do the results mean for California’s hotly contested U.S. House seats?

Out of the more than 9.1 million votes tabulated as of Wednesday, nearly 64% supported keeping Newsom in office. The Associated Press estimates that about 13 million people voted, meaning as many as 4 million ballots are still uncounted — making a granular analysis of voter behavior or demographics almost impossible.

That hasn’t stopped analysts from trying, though.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-15/california-recall-how-many-ballots-are-left-to-be-counted

The single biggest thing this recall proves is not that there will be a D wave in 2022 (this was a D+30/D+29 state even in a R-leaning/neutral year), but that turnout this high (with every voter being mailed a ballot) will almost always reflect the state's partisanship despite what patterns unreliable early polling identifies in turnout/party enthusiam (this was also a major reason behind the polling failure in MT in 2020). Combined with the embarrassing R campaign in this state, there is nothing surprising about this result (I had NO falling slightly short of 60%, looks like it will end up slightly above it).
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Exactly. It doesn’t seem like most of the election day votes have been counted but Atlas feels so confident bashing my prediction that Newsom would win by around 15 or so.

[THG]

I mean, considering whites in cities are much more democrat than whites outside cities, wouldn’t we expect that to show up among Latinos too?

Some of you seem awfully defensive about certain Latino trends, lol

You don’t own them.

This. Anyone using the bluest inner city SF or LA area precincts to defend the declining performance of Democrats with Hispanic voters is like using Seattle or Portland or the Bay Area to make a nuanced commentary on white college voters nationwide.

Either way, while I agree that exit polls are definitely garbage in general, even I doubt they’re so off from 2020 or even 2018.