Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Change in the Fujimori vote between 2011 and 2021 runoffs:



Note: the Putumayo province (Loreto Department) was created in 2015, I use the combined result obtained by Fujimori in 2011 in the districts constituting now the Putumayo province but then part of Maynas province.

While Fujimori obtained in 2011 (48.1%) and in 2021 (49.6%) a very similar result in Peru itself (excluding the diaspora vote) while facing pretty similar opponents (a leftist outsider accused by the Peruvian right of being secretly a communist), a series of changes happened in a decade in the distribution of the Fujimorist vote. Broadly speaking, the far-right candidate further improved on her already strong results in the littoral (especially in several medium-sized cities: +14.4% in Tumbes province, +13.1% in Sullana province, +12.5%; in Santa province,+10.6% in Piura; but also, to a slightly lesser extend in the major cities of the coast: +10.4% in Callao province, +10.1% in Trujillo province, +7.8% in Lima province) while making inroads in the Amazon provinces notably in Maynas (+12.6%) where is located Iquitos (seventh-most populated city in Peru) and in Coronel Portillo (+8.4%) where is located Pucallpa (tenth-most populated city in Peru).

Conversely, she continued losing votes in the highlands, especially in the indigenous-populated areas, receiving her worst results in the provinces of Cusco and Puno departments (3.5% down from an already disastrous 6.4% in 2011 in Chumbivilcas province, Cusco; 4.4% down from 10.2% in 2011 in Canas province, Cusco; 4.6% down from 14.7% in 2011 in Azángaro province, Puno and so on). Well, she improved a bit (+0.4%) in the Jivaroan-populated province of Condorcanqui (Amazonas) but no reason to celebrate as she went from 8.9% to 9.3%. The Fujimori vote also receded in the eleven provinces of Ayacucho department but one (Páucar del Sara Sara where she improved her result from 26.3% to 27.0%) despite the fact that it is the familial homeland of Ollanta Humala, her 2011 rival. She however marginally improved her result in the urbanized parts of the coastal southeast: +1.5% in Tacna province and +3.0% in Arequipa province.

Eight of the ten provinces where the Fujimori share of vote declined the most are located in Cajamarca Department, the homeland of Pedro Castillo, with the most significant decline (-32.0%, from 46.1% in 2011 to 14.1%) happening in Chota, Castillo’s native province. Local opposition to mining in Cajamarca probably also probably explained the decrease in the vote for Fujimori as the far-right candidate suffered in a decade heavy losses in Pasco province (-21.0% from 45.4% to 24.4%), home to a controversial and very toxic lead mine, as well as in Espinar (Cusco Department, -16.1%), the theater of a conflict surrounding a mine operating since 1981, in Huancabamba (Piura Departement, -12.7%) where local communities are opposed to a mining project (in the neighboring province of Ayabaca, also concerned by the project, Fujimori’s result remained stable though, at 26.7%). Fujimori also lost a lot of ground (-18.2%) in Oyón province (Lima Department) whose economy is dominated by mining activities, which suggests that she has united miners and opponents to mining against her.

All in all, Fujimori improved her result in 43 provinces while losing ground in 153 others. She has gained eight provinces won by Humala in 2011 and lost twenty-three provinces she won in 2011 but had been gained by Castillo this year.

Excellent work, thank you so much.

In JNE news, about 700 of the 900 requests have been thrown out by the regional JEEs for being late, and a few of the on-time ones as well (as unfounded). Now Keiko has to appeal to the JNE.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So apparently Veronika Mendoza supported not only Vizcarra, which I could see some merit in given the circumstances, but also the usurper Manuel Merino. Yeah, not only did she ran an awful campaign, but for three years her political maneuvers were terrible and basically strung up to becoming a pressure valve for the regime of 1993. Do nothing as the Broad Front she left behind.

Ultimately, the social democratic-oriented Peru Libre is the best bet now for the people given its willingness to realize what must be done to dismantle the oligarchy as far as it can and has the support base to lead; most trade unions support them, as do the radical socialist democrats in Mano Araca’s party and several critical backings by an umbrella of small socialist groups

Where are you getting that she supported Merino? I’ve never seen anything but opposition to him and the impeachment from her.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Every single request from Fuerza Popular to throw out votes has been refused by the JEE. Hopefully it’s just one more week of appeals before this can finally be over. Probably two.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Every single request from Fuerza Popular to throw out votes has been refused by the JEE. Hopefully it’s just one more week of appeals before this can finally be over. Probably two.

Part of me is glad FP is pushing so hard to do this, because the harder they try, the harder they fail.

Friendship ended with FP. Now RP is my best friend.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

This article doesn’t really say much besides the fact that Castillo is still listening to Cerrón and the PL congressional caucus (some of whom are closer to him and some to Cerrón), but it does appear that Mendoza will likely not be prime minister, nor will a figure from Humala or Toledo’s government. Francke still has a good shot at being finance minister, though.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The JNE has rejected the first ten appeals from the JEE (all from fujimorismo, naturally), and the lone dissenter, Luis Arce Córdova (not to be confused with Luis Arce Catacora (not to be confused with the three poll watchers named Catacora who the fujimoristas accused of being illegally related, because they are racist and desperate)), has resigned. Arce Córdova, as I’m not sure I’ve mentioned, has ties to former Supreme Court justice and current fugitive César Hinostroza.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Happy Inti Raymi everybody. Ceremony concluded about ten minutes ago and I managed to catch the end of it on my lunch break.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

On the 20th anniversary of the capture of the boogeyman himself, Vladimiro Montesinos, famed political gadfly Popy Olivera has released audio recordings (supposedly) of him coordinating attempts to bribe members of the JNE into accepting Keiko’s late challenges and create a civil-military resistance (see the letter from retired military officers) to Castillo, in collaboration with Kenji Fujimori and other fujimorista operatives. Olivera has also called for new elections, which has so far only been seriously called for by the farthest of the far right, but he’s been anti-establishment and weird since his five-day tenure as foreign minister, so it’s not a totally wild concept for him.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The president of the JNE (Jorge Salas Arenas) has suspended Arce Córdova and called on the next in line for his position, Victor Raul Rodríguez Monteza, who is refusing to take it. If the position isn’t filled the JNE will lack a quorum and be unable to operate.

Update: Rodríguez Monteza has relented and been sworn in.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Vladimir Montesinos is too dangerous with the privileges of access he is getting.

Certainly. If Abimael Guzmán had done something like this…

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The people on the other end of the calls with Montesinos were retired army officer Pedro Rejas (a leader of the famous raid on the Japanese embassy) and lawyer Guillermo Sendón, with Sendón being his presumed contact within the JNE. He also attempted to get Mark Vito (Keiko’s husband) to try and convince the US embassy in Peru to take their side, which obviously did not happen.

All that’s left at this point is for the JNE to do its job. I’m reading that they only have 260 appeals to go through, although I’m not sure what the breakdown is.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The JNE has gotten through 18 more appeals and voted down all of them (with Rodríguez Monteza even joining the other three judges in some cases). The 242 remaining appeals should go much quicker, since they’re all either late or lacking the requisite fee. JNE spokesman says they should be done this week or possibly next.

Also, Montesinos has been using cell phones smuggled into prison and not just supposed calls to his girlfriend with his phone privileges. Several officials at the Callao Naval Base prison have already been fired.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Violence broke out yesterday between fujimoristas and pro-democracy protesters that left one pro-Castillo rondero, Sacarías Meneses, dead. The original accusation was that he’d been beaten to death by fujimoristas, but the hospital said his death was caused by a chronic illness. Looks like Peru already has its Brian Sicknick.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

JNE now expects to be done by July 15, with all the remaining appeals relating to challenges presented after the deadline. Not sure why they can’t just do them all en masse, tbh, but I suppose it’s better than nothing.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Congress is going forward with the controversial selection of new judges for the Constitutional Court, seen by many as a McConnell-style move to handicap a future Castillo presidency by stacking the court with unfriendly judges. They are voting right now, in direct defiance of a court order enjoining the process while a lawsuit directly challenging it proceeds. The Partido Morado, Frente Amplio, and (with the steel chair!) FREPAP are all boycotting the session, though, and so far none of the candidates have received the necessary 2/3 majority (87 votes).

Update: the session has been suspended lol.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Keiko is saying that she won’t recognize the JNE’s proclamation this week. In regards to the court issue, the Somos Peru caucus has officially declared its opposition to the project, which I believe makes over a third of Congress.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

After several days of delay (since last weekend!), Rodríguez Monteza has finally voted on and signed all the remaining JNE resolutions, which the rest of the judges voted on en masse last week. Now all that remains is to send them back to the JEEs, the remaining JEEs to officially proclaim final results in their jurisdictions (pending further challenges), and once they’re all done the JNE will officially proclaim Castillo president elect.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

All the JEEs have approved their final results. 3 days for fujimoristas to challenge the results (under very specific conditions), which the JNE will deal with express.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Fujimorista groups (“La Resistencia”, the most radical fringe) protested violently outside the Palacio de Gobierno and elsewhere in Lima yesterday. In other news, the new Congress is gearing up to elect its leadership, with the right (minus one member of RP who was kicked out for admitting that Castillo won, lol) aligning behind Jorge Montoya of RP for speaker and PL/JP wanting someone from PL. Somos Peru (Vizcarra’s party) and part of AP have been somewhat aligned with PL, but probably not enough to support a PL member for speaker.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Madrid premier and Spain's rightwing populist leader claims in the regional assembly that 44,000 dead voted in the Peruvian elections. The ONPE rebukes her and asks Isabel Díaz Ayuso not to spread fake news

https://twitter.com/ONPE_oficial/status/1415792150646861826?s=19

Lmao, what a great and cool commitment to democracy the Spanish right has.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Discussions continue to swirl about Castillo’s cabinet. Francke and Cevallos seem pretty certain for finance and health minister, respect, although Humala’s former finance minister Alonso Segura has been cropping up in some rumors after he met with Castillo (I don’t think he’s very likely but what do I know). Various other members of Castillo’s team look likely to earn ministries as well (Juan Cadilla in education and Avelino Guillén somewhere), as well as Manuel Rodríguez Cuadros for foreign relations (formerly held the post under Toledo) and potentially George Forsyth (who’s been meeting with and publicly supporting Castillo) in a number of areas.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Keiko all but concedes.

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1417249476293664769

Finally. Only a matter of days (if even that) and then we can move on to seeing who’ll be PM (Roger Najar?).

Keiko is conceding, btw, in response to the JNE rejecting her last efforts to challenge the results. Proclamation will come any day now.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Consummatum est.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

PL party Congress is going on rn. Hopefully some time soon after it’s finished we should have the cabinet ready (although Cevallos in health is all but confirmed, Najar looks strong for PM, and Francke still seems the most likely for finance).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

PL party Congress is going on rn. Hopefully some time soon after it’s finished we should have the cabinet ready (although Cevallos in health is all but confirmed, Najar looks strong for PM, and Francke still seems the most likely for finance).

What are Cevallos, Najar, and Francke like?

Francke is a former PUCP economist and was Verónika Mendoza’s main economic advisor before joining the Castillo campaign in the second round. He’s been spending a lot of time assuring investors that Castillo isn’t a chavista and was left out of the advisors’ debate apparently at Cerrón’s insistence, but still seems pretty left-wing himself. His Twitter profile picture is one of the lemurs from Madagascar.

Cevallos is a doctor and former member of Congress from the Frente Amplio. He’s been pretty steady so far in working with Oscar Ugarte (current health minister) while still promoting a bigger role for the state. Consensus seems to be that he was a standout in the advisors’ debate.

Najar is Cerrón’s professed candidate for PM, PL guy since the party’s founding and formerly of UPP (but not the etnocacerista version, more the Humala pre-hoja de ruta version). He spent a long time trying to get out of paying child support to the daughter he had with a 14-year-old.